As usual my final blog for the calendar year is a summary of my subscription service performance. In addition, this year, as there are many changes planned for 2019, I thought it a good idea to combine both the changes planned for 2019 as well as the 2018 summary.
THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM 2018 PERFORMANCE
The final total of net profitable pips for the year was 13,548 pips, beating my target of 10,000 pips quite comfortably in the end.
As you can see from the previous annual totals below, this was the second highest total in net pips for a year, following the 13,575 pips seen in 2015.
2018 – 13,548 pips
2017 – 11,209 pips
2016 – 10,686 pips
2015 – 13,575 pips
2014 – 12,220 pips
The only comment I would like to add about the “pip total” is that the trading year 2018, was without doubt the hardest year I have experienced trading FX., Q1 was stellar, the best start to a year ever, Q2 was awkward with very choppy markets and both Q3 and Q4 were very hard to follow and extremely difficult to read. High probability trades failed, key levels were ignored as the market became 100% news event driven.
I show below the “Net” profitability for 2018 broken down by trade style.
Other highlights / lowlights for the 2018 performance.
- PIPS PER TRADE: A little disappointing to fall below 20.00 pips per trade to finish the year at 19.47.
- TRADE BY TRADE (PROFIT / LOSS %): I failed with my objective of 75% profitable trades 25% loss making trades. The year closed at 73% / 27%.
- TRADE STYLE LOSSES: My new MOMENTUM trade style for 2018 were a disaster.92 trades in total for a combined total loss of 29 pips throughout the year. Whilst the loss was small it was still a poor result. However, on the positive side this type of trade highlighted the difficulties with trading and was instrumental in my change of approach for 2019.
Below I add my 2018 performance analysis spreadsheet together with my year on year, month by month pip comparison in 2018 versus 2017.
WHAT’S NEW and WHY THE CHANGES FOR 2019?
Over the past few weeks, I have been providing a few snippets regarding my changes to the “DRIVE THRU” blog and also my subscription service THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM for next year.
I mentioned in my final blog of 2018 that I would send out a teaser communication prior to the end of 2018 performance totals, and here it is.
I am 100% finished vis-à-vis my trading strategies and 90% completed with regards to my website updates. The next scheduled additions to my website are planned for the middle of Q1 2019.
In this “teaser communication”, I will be covering the following: -
- My reasons for the change in approach in 2019, which, includes a brief history of my subscription service.
- My subscription service “Historical Performances from 2014”.
- The “Day to Day” features and benefits of subscribing and the changes that will take place in 2019.
- My trading projection for 2019.
- Subscription Fees in 2019.
- Thoughts on YOUR Trading opportunity.
1. REASONS BEHIND MY CHANGES:
Let me first provide a little history.
In 2014, I launched the PREMIUM SERVICE, which was based around my trades that I been previously posting for FREE to my “WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU” blog each weekend. These were well received, and I received great feedback asking for more, hence I launched my subscription service.
The PREMIUM SERVICE was changed to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM in Q1 2018, as I decided to re-brand myself for the future, the name change being the initial change.
Just to confirm, The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is a Forex Subscription service that provides subscribers with not just the trades that I am looking at but also some market commentary (examples below). I provide subscribers the details of the trades that I am looking at, what I am doing with my existing LIVE trades. It is then up to subscribers whether or not they want to follow my trade, my ideas or not.
In 2019, the evolution of my subscription service continues.
For several reasons the main being that the FX market has once again, in my opinion, changed its focus. I now see more reliance on news flow driving the price action, plus algorithmic trading is growing its daily influence in the Forex market is in my opinion increasing.
Since the launch of my subscription service back in 2014, I have changed my focus and approach as the market changes. For 2019 this is no different, however my changes are much more focused than in the past. In my opinion, more patience is required to wait for trades to slot into place, especially trades with a shorter-term horizon. The effect of much of the Economic data has taken a step back from having a meaningful influence in the shorter-term.
This change has resulted in me changing my focus to longer-term trading only. The market noise associated with day and swing trading, in the short-term, is just no longer of interest to me and the FUNDAMENTAL, MACRO, LONGER-TERM POSITION TRADING is where I want to be focused moving forward.
It is “The Noise” from shorter-term time frame trades, that is catching out many traders. Without doubt, news flow comments are being picked up by algorithms and pushing price action until a technical indicator is hit and then a wicked switch in direction occurs before the markets settle down. Manual traders are being both spooked and hit in the pocket.
My trading preference...
I am at the outset a FUNDAMENTAL trader first and then technical. I use the alignment of technical set ups with my FUNDAMENTAL views to give me my TRADE SET ups.
From my perspective, as a manual trader, trading Forex is all about repetition. In very basic terms you sell “RIPS” and buy “DIPS”. The key to making it all work is selecting the “High Probability” trades that are contained on every trading chart.
Whilst, I cannot 100% guarantee that subscribers will make money from my suggested trades, the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM has over a 4-year track record of profitable performances.
2. HISTORICAL PERFORMANCES:
All of my performances are measured in single lot trades.
Every trader has a different set of financial circumstances to work with. Some traders trade multiple lots of different types and so whether you trade only mini or maybe just micro lots or a combination of micro, mini or standard lots, the fairest way to review my performance is by a single lot trade. My spreadsheets reflect this, year by year since 2014 when I started.
My full spreadsheets are available on my website under the “HISTORY/PERFORMANCE” tab.
Top line summaries in net profitable pips:
2018 - 13,458 pips
2017 – 11,209 pips
2016 – 10,686 pips
2015 – 13,575 pips
2014 – 12,220 pips
3. THE “DAY TO DAY” FEATURES / BENEFITS and CHANGES in 2019:
This section is cut from a recent blog for existing subscribers. It outlines the changes in 2019 but it also confirms what features and benefits remain in place.
- Target pips to be generated per annum (January 1st- December 31st) remains at 10,000.
- Only POSITION trade styles will be undertaken from January 1st
- New trade set ups will be delivered as usual, via twitter and email, although they should be less frequent given the type / style of trading and number of trades envisaged.
- I expect to trade about 200 live trades a year.
- Market commentaries will remain via Twit Longer.I know that some of you find this useful for your own trading. However, these will now be around the trading day’s NYC close, around 5.30PM to 6.30PM ADT/AST.Closing levels will be more important to me moving forward. This is change to what is in position today but moving forward it is fundamental to longer-term position trading in my opinion.
- In 2019, I will highlight major economic data releases to look out for in the coming sessions. Then I will look at FX from a macro level with reference to my existing positions.
- The weekly “DRIVE THRU” blog will remain. Although there will be format changes to the free newsletter version.The Subscriber version will also remain, although, I will be posting more content directly onto the website area and NOT placing it in the subscriber version each week. I want to remove unnecessary duplication.
- The Subscriber area of the website will be focused on longer-term views.
I am adding some revised sections to accommodate my changes,
such as Central Bank news and copies of Central Bank Monetary Policy statements. I value this data tremendously, it is the best insight one can get on longer term sentiment.
- I will revise and post a revised TRADING RISK MANAGEMENT spreadsheet and guidelines for use, along with a revised TRADE STYLE definitions document.
I do not trade to lose money, probably an obvious statement...
In 2017 and 2018, most of the time I was trading smaller position sizes with wider stops to accommodate the noise. I have not been seeing the $$$ return that I should have seen regardless of the pips generated. The move to POSITION TRADING opens up a huge opportunity.
I only intend to look at my screens in detail 2/3 times a day. I will still stay educated on the news etc., but minute by minute examination of charts looking for trades will be no more.
My subscriber area website contains a full EDUCATION section to support a trader’s day to day needs and requirements. For those who subscribe at PLATINUM STATUS, they also have the option, if they want it, of 1-on-1 market review sessions each month via SKYPE or FaceTime.
How does it all work?
As soon as I see a trade set up or a trade that I want to trade, I send out a tweet via my WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers only secure Twitter account @weeklyfxpremium. This tweet contains the entry and potential exit of the trade plus the RISK % that I am attaching to the trade plus a supporting trade chart.
In addition to the tweet I also email an excel spreadsheet with the trading chart once again and this provides more background and my thoughts to the trade.
4. TRADING PROJECTION 2019:
5. SUBSCRIPTION FEES 2019:
I have revised my pricing structure for 2019.
There are 3 levels of subscription:
- GOLD: 3 months (10 weeks) CAD$350.00
- GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) CAD$600.00
- PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) CAD$900.00*
*PLATINUM subscribers who renew annually based on 2019 prices receive a discounted renewal price of CAD$750.00 for the next 12 months subscription.
I believe that I am offering a great overall package and excellent value for money. If you try the 3-month level to see how it goes this is a low-cost entry level, which will then give you from a position of strength to look longer-term.
3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$350.00 equals: -
USD = $260.00 ($26 per week)
EUR = €230.00 (€23 per week)
GBP = £210.00 (£21 per week)
AUD = $365.00 ($36 per week)
NZD = $385.00 ($38 per week)
JPY = JPY29,500.00 (JPY2,950 per week)
CHF = CHF260.00 (CHF26 per week)
6. THOUGHTS ON YOUR TRADING OPPORTUNITY:
Basically, if you want a full year with the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM now is the time to think about subscribing. In the next section, I run through features and benefits as well as providing a projected 2019 TRADING PROJECTION.
In the 2018 NET PROFITABILITY insert earlier, you can see that from a single mini lot trade ($1.00) per trade the following summary can be noted.
Example in USD:
691 trades at a cost to trade of (691 x $1.00) = $691.00
Trading income from those trades = $13,458.00
Cost of an annual subscription in 2018 was $995.00
NET INCOME after your costs: ($13.458.00 - $691.00 - $995.00) = $11,772.00
Let’s hope that 2019 replicates this type of return.
REMEMBER and PLEASE NOTE: Your annual subscription in 2019 is lower than 2018. Instead of CAD$1,250.00 it will only be CAD$900.00.
I cannot guarantee my performance and it is your decision at the end of the day if you want to take my suggested trades. You can use tighter stops, you are responsible to manage your own RISK TOLERANCES.
Even if you miss through some sleep or whatever, 50% of my trade set ups, there is still a great opportunity to explore and consider.
I hope to be welcoming you on board in 2019.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #306 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 30th December 2018