Welcome to the first blog of 2019.
It was great to get 2018 out of the way, it was the longest year ever. That may not be a factual statement, but facts did not matter last year!
The final pips total for the FX PREMIUM was 13,458 net pips, which was my second-best annual total since inception in 2014. I have been trading for the past week or so adding trades to my book. In addition, I have been adjusting to my new approach for 2019. That is, not spending all day over the charts, I now take a longer-term view of all trades to avoid the noise. I am still active around importance events like the TRUMP TV speech last week and the BOC interest rate decision and the Poloz press conference that followed, but in real terms I am now more focused on the closing daily and weekly candles rather than reacting to pricing and trends as the markets crossover from the European into the North American session or the Asian into the European sessions. In the past I started to feel that this was nothing more than noise, ignoring the main event. It was so easy to get caught up in the noise and get chopped up as a Retail Trader.
Sitting back and taking a longer-term view, without getting too silly with RISK is a much better place to be.
Looking down on the price action, rather than trying to understand it, is a much calmer environment to be in.
I have to talk about this without getting too political.
Going back to the TRUMP TV experience and rebuttal from Chuck and Nancy. It was an incredible 15 minutes of TV. TRUMP did his car salesman approach making false claims on baseless facts. He will say anything to attempt to get a deal done and get nodding heads in support. This was followed by the most bizarre 5 minutes on TV that I think I have ever witnessed. Chuck Schumer (Cryin’ Chuck) and Nancy Pelosi were like characters from a Stephen King movie standing like zombies behind an undersized lectern, it was like a “B” movie clip from a horror scene. No animation, no presentation skills, no emphasis, no attempted empathy, it was really poor for Prime-time TV.
Are these people not managed?
A great opportunity for the Democrats was squandered and missed. The Democrats have simply NOT learned anything or moved forward in the past two years on how to play TRUMP. If I were an American, I would really be pist off with the whole event. It was poor politics and frankly in comparison to the shambolic state of affairs in the UK at least the politicians in the UK have some passion about their beliefs, even though on hard facts they are at times equally poor, the rhetoric is shameful but there is passion, and a belief that comes across.
Off the soapbox and moving on....
Reminding me of the lyrics from the Peter Gabriel song “The Blood of Eden” (...We end where we began), we start the year where we ended 2018.... BREXIT.
Now there’s a movie about BREXIT coming our way well before the end of March deadline staring no other than Benedict Cumberbatch. It will in fact be released by HBO on Saturday January 19th. My only comments about BREXIT, regarding what is written / spoken in the media is that it is polarized. There is NO midway, every comment is at either end of the spectrum of views.
However, is there a “THERESA MAY” master plan in play?
It’s great to start 2019 with a conspiracy theory. I have at the back of my mind had this for some time. It was initially prompted on the basis no leader could be so poor, so stupid but then I looked at that from another angle... humour me.
ONCE A REMAINER, ALWAYS A REMAINER?
The first thought running through your brain may be, FFS you are really giving politicians too much credit and based upon recent activities in the UK way too much intelligence; humour me.
We have all heard BREXIT MEANS BREXIT... nobody expected a deal, the UK voted to leave the EU end of discussion. There was no deal required based upon the terms of the referendum.
Theresa May was a REMAINER. Is she masterminding chaos and disorder knowing that in the end she is waiting for the eleventh hour, 59 minutes and 59 seconds to then announce that the people should vote again?
Has she already alerted Junker to this? An extension of Article 50 could be ready to implement. This would explain the cool, not interested in re negotiation of the BREXIT deal approach from the EU.
Should Theresa May announce a second referendum close to all the final deadlines in the UK parliament, not only would it catch the House of Commons off guard, she also knows that recent opinion polls in the UK indicate that the vote would probably swing in favour of “REMAIN” now that more data is known by the voters based upon the past two years of negotiations.
Yes, this is my version of a UK conspiracy theory....
Is Theresa May capable of such a dastardly plan? ...dead right, she is a politician. She was also a prominent REMAINER and as such she may have conceived such a plan from the get-go. Anything and everything is 100% possible. Catching all opposition views off guard is critical to success and without doubt they are like lambs to the slaughter at the moment, their heads are so far up their own asses they cannot see what could be going on.
Time will tell.
The second meaningful vote is this coming week and we are still advised that the Theresa May BREXIT DEAL is doomed to be voted down. On Friday last week we saw rumours of “Sunset Clauses” being in place should the meaningful vote fail to pass. These were rumoured to be in place in Q1 2018 and were denied. They were denied again on this occasion by Theresa May. Cable loaded up on the rumour but it did NOT sell off on the denial. Very interesting times.
It should be noted that the opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn sees a general election opportunity that the rebel Tory MP’s will not want as it could open a door that would not get shut.
The rebel Tory MP’s have dug their heels in and would be in danger of losing everything in a huge gamble if Theresa May calls for a second referendum.
If Theresa May calls a second referendum as PLAN B after failing to win her BREXIT deal it would take the rebel Tory MP’s and Labour by surprise. Is it all part of a cunning, well manipulated, deviously orchestrated ultimate in Master Plans?
It is the political equivalent of a game of high stakes poker.
I am aware that with the “Stiff upper Lip” and all that jazz, historian Brits are saying that democracy has been in action and a re-vote is NOT required. I would point out both IRELAND and THE NETHERLANDS have both had referendums on EU matters re-run a second time as the voters voted the wrong way the first time! It sounds crazy but this has happened... google it.
Watch this space, there will be plenty of twists and turns ahead....
As you may be aware this year, I have made some fundamental changes to my subscription service THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM
In 2014, I launched the PREMIUM SERVICE, which was based around my trades that I was posting to my “WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU” blog each weekend.
The PREMIUM SERVICE was changed to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM in Q1 2018, as I decided to re-brand myself for the future, the name change being the initial change.
Just to confirm, The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is a Forex Subscription service that provides subscribers with not just the trades that I am looking at but also my market commentary (examples below). I provide subscribers the details of the trades that I am looking at and it is up to subscribers whether or not they want to follow the trade or not.
In 2019, the evolution of my subscription service continues. For several reasons the main being that the FX market has once again, in my opinion, changed its focus. I now see more reliance on news flow driving price action, plus one cannot rule out the growth of algorithmic trading. This has meant that to really be effective in the FX market, more patience is required to wait for trades to slot into place, especially trades with a shorter-term horizon. Economic data has in my opinion taken a step back from having a meaningful influence in the shorter -term.
This change has resulted in me changing my focus to longer-term trading only. The market noise associated with day and swing trading, in the short-term, is just no longer of interest to me and the FUNDAMENTAL, MACRO, LONGER-TERM POSITION TRADING is where I want to be focused moving forward.
It's a big change for me and a very focused direction for the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
I am at the outset a FUNDAMENTAL trader first and then technical. I use the alignment of technical set ups with my FUNDAMENTAL views to give me my TRADE SET ups. From my perspective, trading Forex is all about repetition. In very basic terms you sell “RIPS” and buy “DIPS”. The key to making it all work is selecting the “High Probability” trades that are contained on every trading chart.
Whilst, I cannot 100% guarantee that subscribers will make money from my suggested trades, the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM has over a 4-year track record of profitable performances. Think about it, I do not trade to lose money!
The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is open to all traders whether new, intermediate or experienced regardless of the size of your investment in the Forex market.
I have a very straightforward set of objectives each year: -
- 10,000 net profitable pips.
- 80% / 20% profit loss ratio on live trading.
- Goal to increase my average pips return per trade from the current c.20 pips to c.50 pips when only POSITION TRADES are undertaken.
My subscriber area website contains a full EDUCATION section to support a trader’s day to day needs and requirements. For those who subscribe at PLATINUM STATUS, they also have the option, if they want it, of 1-on-1 market review sessions each month via SKYPE or FaceTime.
How does it all work?
As soon as I see a trade set up or a trade that I want to trade, I send out a tweet via my WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers only secure Twitter account @weeklyfxpremium. This tweet contains the entry and potential exit of the trade plus the RISK % that I am attaching to the trade plus a supporting trade chart. In addition to the tweet I also email an excel spreadsheet with the trading chart once again and this provides more background and my thoughts to the trade.
What I can tell you is that things have started really well in 2019. Some carry over trades and a couple of trades that I covered early for trading reasons have already yielded +800 net pips for the 2019 total. It’s not too late to join. If you are interested go to my home page at www.weeklyfxdrivethru.comand click on the SUBSCRIBE tab at the top of the page. You will also find a lot of supporting information on the drop-down menus on my home page.
1. FX - FORWARDS, BACKWARDS & SIDEWAYS
1.1. THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:
NOTE: Only the items that interest me are listed here.
1.2. BIAS CHART - USD MAJORS SUPPORT and RESISTANCE:
1.3. USD INDEX (DXY) OVERVIEW – MY THOUGHTS:
The Daily DXY chart is below.
I have added my comments to DAILY DXY chart below.
1.4. USD MAJORS - TRADING CHARTS and MY THOUGHTS:
The monthly chart below shows that the EUR/USD is in a down sloping channel.
Over recent weeks the market has pointed out all sorts of “BULLISH INDICATORS and CHART PATTERNS” ranging from Inverted Head and Shoulders to resistance breakouts. At the end of the day every single one of them failed miserably.
The latest was the 1.1500 range break out. A failure to have a weekly close above the 1.1500 level means that the recent failed move should now be termed a FALSE BREAKOUT. This should set up a powerful reversal move.
The recent range was basically 1.1300 to 1.1500. I therefore see a move lower to test 1.1300 being on the cards. First of all, I want to see the pricing of this pair back inside the channel. This would be achieved by a move sub 1.1440.
Nothing to do here pre-BREXIT.
The big day is this Tuesday with the House of Commons meaningful BREXIT vote at 7PM UK time.
This pair now looks quite bullish on the back of rising commodity prices and positive comments from the US / CHINA Trade talks.
My thought process at the moment would be to try a short trade around 0.7340. This level represents a confluence of both the channel resistance trend line and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level.
Without doubt we have a very bullish monthly candle (see chart below). The question is whether or not we break out above the channel resistance trend line.
Just a thought, over the past few years this pair has been in the GOLD MEDAL position when it comes to false moves... just saying!
0.6890 offers up reasonable horizontal resistance, plus this level is in the area of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2008 lows to the 2100 and 2014 highs.
No guarantees but the 0.6890 is a level to note. For what it’s worth I am bearish longer-term this pair.
We bounced off the 1.3180 low area very well. In fact, the spike higher was 100 pips.
The easy money short from 1.3650 to 1.3180 has been made already. Now, we have to wait and see. The BOC are not going to be much of a help for a while, unless you are able to trade on “Data Dependent”.
I think, the clever move here is wait until the USD sorts itself out. The USD will now be dominating this pair as the BOC has taken a back seat. Oil will still play a major part in determining the direction of this pair and the CAD generally. My brain is telling me to let the dust settle on what was an almost a 500 pip move and be patient.
Moving forward given my thoughts on the EUR/USD, I think this currency pair has an opportunity to once again break parity.
The weekly chart below shows a very definitive HAMMER candle.
From the chart below the Trend line from 2015 sloping down left to right and the Fibonacci retracement at 61.8% which comes in at 108.40 seems to be a “fight area” for buyers and sellers to compete for control.
I remain bearish this pair and ultimately, I feel that a re-test of the AUD & JPY recent flash crash of c.104.00 is on the cards. Whether it be this week or not is hugely debatable, but I do think it is possible in Q1.
2. THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM TRADING SUMMARY:
2.1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
January 2019 so far: +750 net profitable pips
2019 year to date: +750 net profitable pips.
The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is my subscribed based FX support option, which offers, subscribers’ full access to my suggested trade set-ups and my market commentaries.
If you go to my website you will see more information about the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, including the “SUBSCRIBE” tab at the top of my welcome page.
2.2. SOME OF THE BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
2.3. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – TRADING PROJECTION 2019:
2.4. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION COSTS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD350.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$600.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$900.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$750.00)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.comfor more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
3. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
4. THE FINAL SHOT:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #307 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 13thJanuary 2019