Over the years of writing weekly blogs, it is no secret that writing blogs around key market moving events is a nightmare.
From beginning to end, my weekly blog takes some 7-8 hours to put together, have it proof-read, deal with WordPress for publishing and ensure that the various formats hit the right people as soon as possible after its posted. This is not a 20-30-minute exercise, not even a two-hour undertaking.
I plan from Thursday onwards, what I will write about in this section, which could all be 100% irrelevant if news headlines hit the screens that are totally opposite to my thoughts. The charts I post later in the blog are longer-term but my comments to accompany the charts are real time thoughts.
So, my point is, if you read this do not be a smart arse saying the poor bastard couldn’t even read the headlines before posting this blog! There is much more to this than meets the eye.
(For the record this blog was completed at 2315 28.06.2019 AST. Then sent for proof reading and then finally for WordPress distribution c.0700 AST 29.06.2019).
We have the G20 in Osaka, Japan over this weekend.
I am not expecting much to come out of these series of meetings other than “Hand-Shakes”, “Smiles” and “We All Love Each Other” comments.
One of the hardest new aspects of trading in the FX market is getting used to very swift moves in price for what appears on first glance no real reason for the move to take place.
It’s written about a bit, but not really too much is known about the true sophistication of algorithms. The simple fact is “algos” as they are referred to are far more sophisticated than we first thought. The traditional algos that trigger a move when price hits a certain level or and when a specific indicator trend line is touched are now really old school.
Whether you are a believer in these or not is not important, the fact is the new far more sophisticated algos make the initial varieties that many traders love to put together and back-test strategies with equivalent to child’s play.
These have been on test for a while now but there is growing evidence that these updated algos that can interpret the written word and basically chose a trading direction are more at play that we think. This is one reason why I moved away from shorter-term trading. The distortions and “noise” in pricing were driving me insane...
Talking about sanity...
We entered this G20 meeting on the back of what I can only describe as the strangest, weirdest, most bizarre telephone interview by TRUMP with Maria Bartiromo on Fox Business last Wednesday morning.
Basically, TRUMP was on a rant. I have cut my proposed commentary on his rant that follows by about 66% as I felt that I was ranting myself!
If you caught the interview I wonder if your thoughts were like mine.
At the time, anyone listening should have been prepared for it by wearing depends (these are adult diapers in North America), I nearly wet myself because at the time I was laughing so much it hurt.
From my perspective, it was the rant of a disturbed child in a man’s body. Initially it was funny to listen to because it was just incredible to listen to, totally unexpected for the listener never mind the poor TV anchor.
However, upon reflection, it was an embarrassment to listen to, it highlighted the mental state of a man allegedly the “Leader of the free World”.
In about 15-20 minutes, I think there were just two questions, and several attempts to jump in. Maria Bartiromo is a seasoned professional ex CNBC, but she was powerless to control the interview.
What really had me rolling laughing was when some bright spark on Twitter had tweeted mid-rant that TRUMP could have been sitting on the toilet on the phone having this rant live on TV... the mental picture was too much for me!
What did he rant about?
Please note that I am para-phrasing here for most of the comments...
CHINA: “They want to deal... they need a deal... I don’t need a deal. Before me the US never earned $0.10 cents off CHINA now, we are making millions and millions of $$$ from CHINA”. “We are nearly there with a deal with CHINA 90% there”
Next; he went to IRAN...
“They are stupid not clever. I am prepared to talk with their leader no pre-conditions”
This comment was less than 24 hours after hitting the leaders of IRAN with more economic sanctions and calling them stupid. In the same breath TRUMP stating “Let’s make IRAN great again!” ?
Then he touched on HAUWEI...
I still cannot fathom out is HAUWEI a security issue or a political issue? It seems to be a negotiating tool for a CHINA deal as far as I can see, therefore how can it be a national Security issue. Never mind that.... off TRUMP went again, it was a joke.
Next it was the turn of SOCIAL MEDIA, with a by the way lead in...
TRUMP claimed Twitter was censoring his content and that he may sue Facebook and Google over unfair treatment vis-à-vis Republican posts in favour of Democrat posts and rankings. He them said the Social Media companies were all run by Democrats.
Listening in, I wondered what would be next ...?
Not disappointed at all, and, with that picture of TRUMP sat on the toilet still in my head I was still laughing, he went on a rambling, with an uncensored rant around the FED, interest rate cuts and currency manipulators!
He had in the previous week called out ECB President, Mario Draghi, for basically using the EUR as a tool to support the EUROZONE economy. Claiming it was currency manipulation and that the ECB had been “getting away with it for years”. He went there again, but this time he did NOT even have the respect to name his own FED chair Jerome Powell by name.
He ranted “I could ask Draghi to come here take over the FED and remove our man, basically his comments revolved around the fact in TRUMP’s eyes, Draghi knows how to work with interest rates”.
The out of the blue VIETNAM... they are currency manipulators around their currency the “Dong”
It was a strange interview, if you could call it that... the algos must have been on the technology version of acid!
I am NOT a trained economist by any stretch, but I am really confused.
The current state of the U.S. economy, which was also part of the TRUMP rant on Fox Business, he claimed was the biggest, strongest, best-ever in the history of the USA.
Here’s my confusion:
If it is; why does it require a 0% interest rate policy and as TRUMP has requested a re-introduction of Quantitative Easy (QE)? I know a CHINA trade deal would boost the US economy and should render interest rate cuts irrelevant. However, I am NOT expecting a CHINA trade deal, I believe that CHINA will dig in and play the long game but ultimately I think they will carry on talking, talking and talking with TRUMP under pressure to announce a “Wishy-Washy” deal as the best ever completed in the history of the world. It’s all bullshit really.
As mentioned earlier, I was laughing all the way through the rant, but at the end I felt sad for TRUMP. He is NOT managed as no-one can control him. If he is in any way challenged, he is off to court to do battle, I find his behavior totally unacceptable. There are plenty of tapes and media cuttings about that shows what he is like. How is he still allowed to carry on?
On a wider subject for a country that is so “Politically Correct” how has TRUMP survived? I don’t have to live in USA so why should I care, I just have to trade around the madness. My thoughts on TRUMP are my thoughts only.
The upshot of everything TRUMP presidential announcement related is; confusion, complete lack of facts, spin and a bravado announcement, which when after the details are inspected, we simply see it for what it is, superficial... it’s just a SPIN and FAKE.
It has been said many times that a CHINA deal has to be a meaningful deal, not just any deal. The number of spectrums of possible outcomes is huge. At the end of the day, there will be big smiles, hand-shakes and I love you’s, but the bottom line will be something completely different.
I had noted at the start of this year that if a trade deal was announced I would short the AUD and NZD, as any trade deal involving the U.S. and CHINA would only benefit the U.S. Australia and New Zealand are huge trading partners of CHINA and I think that they run the risk of being left behind.
I still believe in this approach. So, I would be a seller of RIPS higher selling into strength once the euphoria of a deal is done and the facts become known!
The broader issue at the moment is that of increasing USD weakness, I am not 100% convinced. Technically we are set after consolidation for the USD to weaken BUT given all the geopolitical factors around the globe at the moment, DO NOT count your chickens yet.
I realise technically it looks like the USD could get taken to the woodshed BUT never, fight the FED. Powell was hawkish last week, more defiant than at the last FOMC Press Conference. I am not going all in just yet!
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE: JUNE 2019:
THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW JUNE 2019:
June was a consistent month in real terms although my trading activity was severely curtailed by the fact that markets were trapped for long periods of time in tight trading ranges due to price uncertainties.
- 740 pips in the month.
Year to Date total is now at 8,646 = 86% of my annual objective.
- Average pips per trade continues to be an issue, which will probably not see any improvement through the summer months of July and August.
In June the result was 26.43 pips per completed trade.
Year to Date this now sits at 37.76. My goal is 50.00.
- My profit / loss trading relationship ratios were 71% positive trades and 29% loss making trades in June. A little below the 80% / 20% target.
Year to Date it stands at 81% / 19%, just above the 80% / 20% target.
Overall the “Pips per Trade” target is the only objective which I am struggling with but I do have a very clear understanding why this is lagging.
I am pleased and positive overall this year so far.
As with anything in life it is important to count the wins!
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – JUNE 2019:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD350.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$600.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$900.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$750.00)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.comfor more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4 - WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. JUNE:TRADING REVIEW and OVERVIEW:
3. LOOKING AHEAD... WHAT TRADES ARE NEXT:
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS:
I remain ultra-positive and relatively pleased with the performance this year so far and I am still extremely positive moving forward.
On a glummer note, I am not that confident that range bound markets will disappear as we now approach the summer trading period. Usually the summer is slow as we see vacation time being taken by the higher profile traders. From now through to mid -September, the FX market operates on lower liquidity levels.
It may be different this year given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets. It could be, especially as long as TRUMP remains in the White House.
With that being said, I still feel that there is huge trading abundance in both pips and $$$ available during the remainder of this year. One just has to be careful and patient.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #328 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 30thJune 2019