Much has been written this month by many traders and analysts, not just me, about how difficult the range bound FX markets are to trade inside. In fact, I think that I have been highlighting how awkward the FX market has been for a few months, definitely all of Q2 anyway.
In a “rangey” trading environment, in my opinion it is even more important to stick close to your daily routines that work. Set your levels and trade with them. As traders we always need to be trading with conviction.
We all live and breathe FX in a market that is dominated by FEAR and GREED. Both of these are extreme positions and to succeed you need velocity, belief, gratitude, intuition, visualization and a huge dose of entrepreneurial skills to equip yourself for success. It’s ALL ABOUT MINDSET.
How do I relate this to my daily routine?
- Before I tweet, before I email, in fact as I drink my first water or coffee of the day, I research the charts relating to my lead indicators: -
USD/CAD, USD/SEK, USD/AUD, USD (DXY), GOLD, COPPER, OIL, US10YR, AUD/JPY vs. S&P, USD/CHF vs. EUR/USD and EUR/GBP vs. GBP/CHF.
I am looking at and checking direction, looking for trade patterns, looking for high probability trade set ups, inter-market relationships, inter-market correlations and currency inverse relationships.
- Then I check my current LIVE trades, admittedly I may have a quick glance first, but I do NOT go deeper until I have reviewed the market pieces that interest me.
- I always have a TRADE PLAN.
In fact, at the moment I have two trade plans in operation.
PLAN A: NON-BREXIT related trades which are governed by my full trade plan.
PLAN B (Sub Plan): This only deals specifically with my BREXIT related trades.
Anyway, I look to see do I need to set up an “opportunist” plan for the day or the next few sessions, which could turn a swing trade opportunity into a position style trade.
- I have my PLAN(S) – I TRADE MY PLAN(S)
There is nothing complicated here, it is routine, it comes as second nature.
When away from my home office it is painful, stressful and often very awkward to complete, with often times lot of wasted notes.
The most important line in the above is having and owning a PLAN and TRADING YOUR PLAN.
Once you “OWN IT” you have the correct mindset to move on.
There are plenty of elephant traps put in front of you to take you off course. In FX there are so many opinions. Two traders can look at the same chart and one can give you a bullish interpretation, the other a bearish view. It’s not easy if you let these thoughts influence you.
I have two Labradors (Ozzy and Aoife) brother and sister now 8 years old. They approach life in a routine, they love routine and I believe we can learn from dogs. They have a positive outlook and they believe everything they want is coming their way. They are also focused and single-minded in many aspects of their day to day routine.
If I could focus 50% of the power that they adopt each day, I would be a better trader. I “OWN MY TRADE PLAN”, I have a positive outlook and an intuitive positive mindset approach.
My trading has become more consistent since 2014, when I pushed myself out of my comfort zone into offering a subscription service, initially THE PREMIUM SERVICE, re-branded in the fall last year to THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
It’s all about mindset. Trading Psychology is a fascinating and wide-ranging subject that can be adapted to everything in life.
From my perspective, May was ruled completely by huge market uncertainty hanging over FX like the Sword of Damocles. Whilst I, like many other traders, moaned here and there about lack of volatility in the FX market, I can understand the institutional FX players positions of not wanting to enter aggressively short or long. Why would you?
- HAUWEI - SPATS
- CHINA TRADE DEAL
- CHINA RETALIATION
- EUROZONE WEAK DATA
- ITALIAN DEBT
- SPANISH POLITICAL DEADLOCK
- GERMAN POOR DATA
- FED RATE CUT or NOT?
- FED SPEAK – rejecting RATE CUT TALK
- S. MARKETS pricing in 3 x FED RATE CUTS to end 2020
- Then, to round off the month TRUMP; weaponizing tariffs on MEXICO regarding border illegal immigration
Would you make any longer-term decisions with this list?
The $64,000 is, how long will this range bound market last?
The simple answer is; I don’t know.
I can say that the markets have always been cyclical... but in reality, big deal right now the past is neither here nor there, the rules of engagement have changed since the arrival of TRUMP.
The shock announcement late last week on tariffs on MEXICO based on politics not economics, was a major shift in policy and frankly the goal posts have now been moved by TRUMP. I find it fascinating that TRUMP still believes he is NOT taxing his voters. Larry Kudlow agreed that tariffs were basically a tax on consumers. Since he said this he has never been seen, heard of or quoted! TRUMP bum boy Navarro was wheeled out after the MEXICO tariffs stating it was a tariff on MEXICO.... who in the name of sanity is this nutcase kidding and who in the USA believes either TRUMP or Navarro vis-à-vis these claims about who pays for the tariffs?
The BREXIT version of War and Peace continues, with Theresa may now going and the race for her replacement in full swing. How that person can unite the Conservative Party, the House of Commons and get speaker John Bercow on board to move the BREXIT will be another fresh chapter to watch with intrigue. I do not think this will be as straightforward as the runners for the job portray and frankly in real terms, I think that very little has changed since Theresa May announced her leaving date of June 7th.
I need to be convinced that a change in leader will make things smoother.
Moving on again ....
Therefore, with the above “list” in play, trading has been both frustrating and limiting for myself as a swing to position trader.
I still remain very positive in my abilities now moving into the final month in Q2 / H1, but I have still yet to place what I would call a longer-term position trade. Market conditions have meant that some trades were closed early which affects my “Profit in pips per completed trade” objective, but at the end of the day I can only work with the market I am presented.
My core objectives of net pips gained, and profit / loss ratios remains above objective, so I cannot complain, I could but I won’t!
I want to beat all of my targets, pips, $$$, pips per trade and trading ratios. It will be a tall order to get all 4 targets under my belt this year.
1.WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE: MAY 2019:
THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW MAY 2019:
As you can see from the spreadsheet below in section 1.1, May represented an improved performance over April 2019.
- 1,694 pips in the month.
Year to Date total is now at 7,904 = 79% of my annual objective.
- Average pips per trade is still an issue given the range bound markets. I am not allowing trades to run as far, given the number of pullbacks that happen that erase pip gains. So, I have been using a “Grab ‘n Go” approach to compensate. The effect though is that I am not banking as many pips per closed trade.
In May the result was 42.35 pips per completed trade.
Year to Date this now sits at 39.33. My goal is 50.00.
- My profit / loss trading relationship ratios was 90% positive trades and 10% loss making trades in May, this was the strongest performance in 2019 so far.
Year to Date it stands at 82% / 18%, which is above my objective of 80% / 20%.
Overall just the “Pips per Trade” target is the only objective which I am struggling with but I do have a very clear understanding why this is lagging.
I am very pleased and positive overall this year so far.
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – MAY 2019:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: 2019 - TRADING PROJECTION:
1.6: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.7: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.8: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD350.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$600.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$900.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$750.00)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.comfor more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. MAY 2019 - TRADING REVIEW and OVERVIEW:
3. LOOKING AHEAD... WHAT TRADES ARE NEXT:
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS:
I am still extremely positive moving forward.
I am not that confident that range bound markets will disappear as we now approach the summer trading period.
Usually the summer is slow as we see vacation time by the higher profile traders being taken. From now through to mid -September, the FX market operates on lower liquidity levels.
Will it be different this year given all the geopolitical news hanging over the markets? It could be, especially as long as TRUMP remains in the White House.
With that being said, I still feel that there is huge trading abundance in both pips and $$$ available during the remainder of this year. One just has to be careful and patient.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOFG VERSION: #324 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 3rd June 2019