Comparing September with August from my trading performance perspective is at first glance like comparing Apples with Oranges or even Kirk versus Picard.
The headlines show just +350 pips added in the month, compared with +3,360 pips in the previous month.
Obviously as any newspaper mogul worth his salt would say there is a story behind the headlines, and I will elude to how I saw things in the performance review in section 1.
I am still ahead of last years performance at the same time of the year by +1,680 pips, so I am grateful for that and overall, I cannot be anything but grateful for my performance in 2019 so far.
My year to date total = +13,346 pips, against my annual objective of +10,000 pips. So, in overall terms I cannot be anything but happy, although there are always areas to improve upon.
Away from my own performance, we saw changes in the dynamics of the FX market in September. It is not easy to pinpoint exactly which was the initiator, but I think several factors combined drew market volatility to an almost stop.
I will list the obvious geopolitical events that in my opinion are holding the Forex marke tight and keeping it range bound, in no particular order: -
- CHINA / U.S. - Trade deal – meeting on the horizon (this coming week).
- IRAN – Straits of Hormuz issues and war mongering rhetoric.
- BREXIT – deadline looming closer – political unrest vis-à-vis prorogation.
- HONG KONG – protests and violence escalate to a new level.
- EUROZONE – Economic data continues to worsen.
- NORTH KOREA – Flexing with tests ahead of next meeting to gather leverage.
- TRUMP – Impeachment developments.
- FEAR OF WORLDWIDE RECESSION – poor U.S. PMi / ISM data fueling fears.
- CENTRAL BANKS – race to the bottom moves in play.
This is really like a 3-4-year-old child’s jig-saw puzzle. There are a few pieces, but they interlock by event by currency pair and have the effect of pushing and pulling at the same time creating a stalemate in price movement.
Looking ahead, the upcoming trade talks are obviously huge for all markets, not just FX. I expect some sort of an agreement, probably watered down from the U.S. side just so TRUMP gets something he and KUDLOW can spin to the unwashed that he is just brilliant, and this represents a brilliant deal. Wait until they reconvene after the 2020 elections it will then be the best deal ever in the history of deals.
As we have seen already;
- USMCA just brilliant, yet its not much different at all from NAFTA and its STILL NOT ratified.
- TPP, TRUMP withdrew the U.S. He has just signed a deal with Japan that is pretty much back to what the TPP deal was.
The TRUMP (I am the best negotiator on the planet) deals so far are all hype and spin... nothing more.
The above “Jig-Saw” pieces (geopolitical issues), frankly, have made it very difficult to operate on a swing trader basis.
One has to sit in trades for an awful long time waiting for traction and then we only see moves to range limits, if I see a range extension, it’s like a Birthday and Christmas at the same time!
My most used word in 2019 in this blog and on social media is “patience”.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE: SEPTEMBER 2019:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 2019:
The markets tightened in September and as a result moves of 50-100+ pips were very few and far between. I only had 4 trades of 100+ pips.
I took a huge hit on a few JPY short trades and the EUR/NZD long when RISK sentiment altered for a couple of days around news concerning the CHINA trade talks. Had I held on to the JPY trades, the c. 850-pip loss would have been eroded completely and profitable trades would have been posted instead. In addition, I booked a c.200 pip loss on a EUR/NZD position as well that would have turned positive.
One can always look back; hindsight is a beautiful thing. I made my decision based upon the RISK and with the JPY pairs I had maxed out the RISK I was prepared to tolerate from the time the trades were posted. With reference to the EUR/NZD, I did close the position early. Weakness on my part... possibly, but as I say hindsight is easy.
My pips return when all factors are mixed together was from my own perspective disappointing, but I am grateful for a month end positive result.
- 350 pips in the month.
Year to Date total is now at 13,346 = 133% of my annual objective.
- Average pips per trade were obviously crushed.
In August the result was 9.21 pips per completed trade.
Year to Date this now sits at 36.66. My goal is 50.00.
I have some serious work ahead of me in Q4 to hit objective.
- My profit / loss trading relationship ratios were 71% positive trades and 29% loss making trades in September.
Year to Date it stands at 80% / 20%, in line with my the 80% / 20% target.
I am very pleased and positive overall this year so far.
As with anything in life it is important to count the wins!
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – JULY 2019:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.4: YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
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PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$900.00
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Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
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SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4 - WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. SEPTEMBER: OVERVIEW and TRADES REVIEW:
3. LOOKING AHEAD... WHAT TRADES ARE NEXT:
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS:
Moving forward, I am very happy with my performance this year so far.
I am holding a little more RISK in certain areas than I would prefer, but I have my limits and plans to fix moving forward.
Overall and in summary looking towards the end of the year from now, I still feel that there is huge trading abundance in both pips and $$$ available during the remainder of this year. One just has to be careful and patient.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #338 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 6th October 2019