Not wanting sound like a broken record but “Hell... this current FX market is just bloody awful to trade within”.
When I made the decision last year to switch to full-time POSITION style trading, I knew that there would be times when accumulating my trading positions, I could have the odd trade under-water pending my trade gaining traction. I did NOT however, allow for this type of market when I allowed my trades to float and then stop and stay stuck or grind slowly against me.
Despite this backdrop, I am adding pips here and there inside my TRADE PLANS and I am STILL operating inside my TRADE PLANS despite a non-moving market in FX. For this I am extremely grateful.
The November and 2019 overall performances are as follows: -
November 2019: = + 820 net profitable pips.
Year to Date 2019: = +17,241 net profitable pips.
2019 Pip Target: = 10,000 net profitable pips.
Performance Summary: + 172%
Whilst I am under water with some of my CORE POSITION trades to be called INVESTOR trades next year, I am within my guidelines and I have no plans to cut them at the moment, in fact I am prepared for these trades to go further against me should a CHINA / U.S. trade deal be signed.
I also have my SWING trades decided but I require the market to move first, so my master activity at the moment could be classified as master inactivity BUT, I do know what I want to do next, it is just that I thought that “next”, would have happened about 6-8 weeks ago! So, I am in what is called patience mode.
In this environment, I strongly recommend NOT forcing trades, wait for your levels to be hit to trigger trades. To put it another way be patient and let pricing come to you.
So, in true U.S. Corporate style TRUMP signed off the bill regarding support for the Hong Kong protestors on Wednesday night last week just after the markets had closed for Thanksgiving. The reason for the timing is “in hope” that the markets will digest everything over the long weekend (knowing that the “deep pocket” traders will not return to their desks until Monday morning this week. I think that TRUMP believes this may give him the time required to work in the background, with the hope of stabilizing the markets, and, furthermore attempt to control the narrative with CHINA before the markets reopen after the weekend (I am ignoring Black Friday) ... Desperation or Smart?
Maybe a Phase 1 trade deal being agreed or signed is NOT a 2019 occurrence?
I do NOT believe a word that emanates out of TRUMP or his puppets; it’s all SPIN as far as I am concerned. Even if something is agreed, TRUMP is always liable to walk things back, or have a spat on Twitter etc.
I took losses on some JPY short trades earlier in the day as the slow grind higher in equities finally saw the JPY weaken across the board and start to play catch up.
Over the past six months the market has been obsessed with the CHINA / U.S. trade deal. It is (I hope) the sole reason for FX becoming stagnant. There is no volatility and I can see no change until a deal regardless of the content is signed.
The only way I see this changing is if there is a NO DEAL. The deal must be pretty much baked in, just a reactionary spike, then we have a BUY THE RUMOUR / SELL THE NEWS event in play.
If there is a NO DEAL confirmed by both CHINA and TRUMP then we head lower with an equity sell-off, maybe 10%-15%, maybe a deeper correction.
My approach to the market is with the same pairs regardless of DEAL or NO DEAL... USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/CAD short. Possibly the NZD/USD, NZD/CAD and NZD/JPY as well. I prefer a deal with a great spike higher for a day or two pick a Fibonacci level or previous levels of buyer and seller interest and off you go!!
Being at the end of the month, but also close to the end of the year with so much geopolitical uncertainty hovering around, in my opinion, one should take a good look at the WEEKLY and MONTHLY closing candles. I can guarantee you that the big institutions will be doing this. The only caveat I would add is, do not expect too much from this market into the year-end based on anything other than news that surrounds the U.S. / CHINA trade deal. There are Central Bank meetings dotted across the G10, the only one that I think that has potential to act is the RBA. I believe the rest will be on hold into 2020.
Therefore, like everyone else, I wait patiently.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE: NOVEMBER 2019:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW NOVEMBER 2019:
The FX market virtually came to a halt in November. Trading ranges were extremely tight, with one day seeing the most liquid pair in FX the EUR/USD operating inside an 18-pip range!
I took over 500 pips in losses with my JPY short trades. After tightening stops across multi-positions, I decided to let then go on the fact that the JPY which had not been correlated to BONDS or EQUITIES decided to become linked once again. Despite the JPY losses and a couple more, I still gathered over +800 positive net pips.
My black spot of my trading remains the average pip profit per completed trade. My goal is 50 pips per trade as an average. Whilst the overall pips per trade number has increased over earlier years; this year it sits at 37.98, a significant increase and it should be given my trading style this year. It did take a tumble in November back to 26.45. I am of course conscious that the trading conditions in November played a huge part in this performance.
AVERAGE PIPS PER TRADE FROM 2014:
2019 so far to November 30th 2019 = 37.98
2018 = 19.48
2017 = 21.89
2016 = 15.49
2015 = 20.05
2014 = 19.68
In summary, I am once again grateful for my trading performance and although many have decided to call it a day regarding 2019, I still believe that there are a several opportunities hanging around to seize.
The months performance highlights are below: -
- +820 pips in the month.
Year to Date total is now at +17,241 = 172% of my annual objective.
- My profit / loss trading relationship ratios were 84% positive trades and 16% loss making trades in October.
Year to Date it stands at 82% / 18%, in line with my the 80% / 20% target.
I am very pleased and positive overall this year so far. It has been my most successful since I launched my subscription service. As with anything in life it is important to count your wins and be grateful.
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – NOVEMBER 2019:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
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GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.8: SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION: – “DOUBLE UP”
(Period in effect from Black Friday through to midnight EST Cyber Monday)
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. NOVEMBER: OVERVIEW and TRADES REVIEW:
3. LOOKING AHEAD... WHAT TRADES ARE NEXT:
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS:
2019 is NOT written off yet, but it will be a challenge into the end of the year.
I still have potential trades, with my charts on my desk BUT I will be waiting until I have hard facts with which to trade. I will NOT be brought under the SPIN spell that TRUMP and his puppets love to project.
Moving forward, I am very happy with my performance this year so far. It has been my best, most successful trading year so far.
REMEMBER: If you are NOT yet a subscriber; the “DOUBLE UP” promotion in place until midnight CYBER MONDAY gives you an ideal opportunity to join me and, with all things being equal you could be part of the team trading a 15,200-pip target for 2020 and seeing the target beaten!
As always; I see it as good karma moving into the year-end as the time to cut back RISK and reduce positions. Personally, I have three / four trades that I will be holding, and my key goal in December is to reduce my RISK EXPOSURE to a minimum.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 30th November 2019