My last three months performance has been something like a helter-skelter fun park ride. A record month (my best ever) in August, a huge pullback in September and then last month was my second best in 2019 with +3,075 net profitable pips added.
2019 looks as follows: -
OCTOBER 2019 = +3,075 net profitable pips.
YEAR TO DATE 2019 = +16,421 net profitable pips.
This performance happened, when in fact for the last 10 days of the month I did very little apart from cover a few losing trades.
The month I found technically difficult. Fundamentally I look at the FX market and basically its screwed up, very rangebound, moves are small, moving averages are awkwardly small at times, so it’s all about one’s belief, in my case about my fundamental views and thoughts.
There are arguments on both sides about whether technical traders are enjoying this market. Fibonacci levels are holding to a large extent and chart patterns are playing out but the moves to complete the chart pattern has one biting one’s nails as the moves are not convincing and seem to be protracted beyond belief at times. We are seeing quite a few false moves. This must have technical traders a little concerned. The hardest piece for me to fit into my jigsaw is that the false moves are not as a result of a market moving news event, or a TRUMP tweet, to me most of the false breaks are due to tight ranges that support a severe lack of market conviction.
So, as a fundamental trader first, I am skeptical of getting heavily involved in the current market.
Away from the above, my opinions on the market backdrop, there is still a huge chunk of geopolitical news events hanging over the markets.
I will list the obvious geopolitical events that in my opinion are holding the Forex market tight and keeping it range bound, in no particular order: -
- CHINA / U.S. Trade deal (Phase one / Phase Two):
It’s all complete bulls**t. Mnuchin stated about 6 months ago that they were 90% there on the overall deal. He was on the wires last Friday stating great progress has been made from recent communications.
If ever there was a “Nobel Prize” for talking boll**ks, TRUMP, KUDLOW, MNUCHIN and POMPEO would all be in the running. All these guys do is feed the markets what they want to hear and set algorithms wild on acid as they try to interpret the news.
- IRAN – Straits of Hormuz issues and war mongering rhetoric:
It’s all gone very quiet... too quiet.
The UK is now in election mode. I watched the Nigel Farage (Brexit Party) manifesto launch on Friday last week. The clean break from the EU = HARD BREXIT. This is the only way to free the UK from EU rules, laws and regulations. The markets do not want a HARD BREXIT.
Moving forward, if the Conservatives do win a majority parliament the UK will be back to a hung parliament once again. So, GBP risks remain. The Conservatives will BREXIT with a SOFT BREXIT, a half-way measure which attempts to consider both sides who just want a decision.
- HONG KONG – protests and violence escalate to a new level:
Carrie Lamb (HK Chief Executive) has withdrawn the extradition bill that started all the protests. However, the HK protestors want more and have a list of demands.
- EUROZONE – Economic data continues to worsen:
- NORTH KOREA – Flexing with nuclear tests ahead of next meeting to gather leverage.
- TRUMP – Impeachment voting has taken place. Now all future impeachment developments will be televised. This has market moving potential.
- FEAR OF WORLDWIDE RECESSION – poor U.S. PMi / ISM data fueling fears.
- CENTRAL BANKS – race to the bottom moves in play. In addition, Christine Lagarde has now taken over as ECB President following Mario Draghi’s retirement.
The above is quite a list and there are probably a couple more that traders would like to add too.
As an FX trader, I feel we are always in limbo between news events. Markets seem to drag, as mentioned before ranges are very tight. I always feel that the next big news event will be the one that loosens up the FX market. Every time that doesn’t happen, I feel the next one will. Maybe we have the new normal.
I spent a few days recently making plans for 2020.
I am still going to focus on longer-term trading, and despite having my best year so far since launching my subscription service I do need to pin down and tighten up a little further my TRADE PLAN for 2020. More this this over the coming few weeks.
I have not increased my subscription prices for two years. I have therefore decided to update subscription prices with effect from 3rd November 2019.
I have also launched a winter subscriber promotion called “THE TAG ON”. Details of which can be found on my website and a flyer is posted later in this blog.
I always feel to get the best from a subscription you should go the extra nine yards and subscribe annually to get the full year subscription in line with the trade set ups as they become available, this means that all the data released should be in line with your years trading activity.
I have spent a great time this year on my personal development. FX trading is all about your mindset. Trading psychology is just huge.
If you procrastinate in life over decisions, you probably procrastinate in trading. This can be a blockage. FX trading requires, creativity and intuition but perhaps the greatest skills are visualization and having a positive mindset to trade along with technical ability, and a visual edge to locate, define and execute high probability trades.
With my launch in 2019 to focus on POSITION TRADING, I actually launched Scott 2.0 with regards to my approach and mental well-being.
Trading longevity is crucial to your FX trading success. Just having my approach as a sounding board could be a great option. If you take my suggested trades, whichever style within my POSITION TRADING approach you decide, you can make $$$ and still cover the cost of your subscription plus you can compete with your own trades against mine.
I welcome all types of traders and I love trader interaction.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE: OCTOBER 2019:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW OCTOBER 2019:
The markets as far as I am concerned remained tight in October.
My break vis-à-vis gathering pips came from my BREXIT related trades. I had 8 trades with +100 pips or greater last month and these provided a great base to work from. My losing trades last month were few but were mainly through JPY cross rate pairs and my biggest loss was a CORE SHORT trade with the USD/NOK. I could have been more flexible with my STOP LOSS, but I decided to take pain instead.
My pips return when all factors are mixed together was from my own perspective very pleasing, it was of course my second-best month this year and all my averages moved up. Obviously, I am very grateful for the positive monthly result.
- +3,075 pips in the month.
Year to Date total is now at +16,421 = 164% of my annual objective.
- Average pips per trade obviously improved.
In August the result was 52.12 pips per completed trade.
Year to Date this now sits at 38.82. My goal is 50.00.
- My profit / loss trading relationship ratios were 92% positive trades and 8% loss making trades in October.
Year to Date it stands at 82% / 18%, in line with my the 80% / 20% target.
I am very pleased and positive overall this year so far.
As with anything in life it is important to count the wins!
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – OCTOBER 2019:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.4: YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.8: SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION: – “THE TAG ON”
(Period in effect 3rd November 2019 to Midnight New York time 31st January 2020)
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4 WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. OCTOBER: OVERVIEW and TRADES REVIEW:
3. LOOKING AHEAD... WHAT TRADES ARE NEXT
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS:
Moving forward, I am very happy with my performance this year so far. It was great to bounce back from September ‘s performance and almost match that of August. I am grateful for my wins and I am happy to count October as a win.
I am holding a little more RISK in certain areas than I would prefer, but I have my limits and plans to fix moving forward.
Overall and in summary looking towards the end of the year from now, I still feel that there is huge trading abundance in both pips and $$$ available during the remainder of this year. One just has to be careful and of course patient.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #342 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 3rd November 2019