Well that’s it, 2019 ... done and dusted.
The numbers do NOT lie.
2019 was my most successful trading year since introducing a fee-paying subscription service. My most successful via net pips gained. However, not wanting to be a killjoy, this performance was NOT reflected to the same extent in actual $$$ income.
The reason for this was very simple and straightforward to understand, I traded with smaller positions in 2019 due to the higher levels of market RISK. Having said that, 2019 was a trading disciplined year, my TRADE PLANS were very focused, very specific on my trading goals with my specific TRADE STYLES. As I say over and over discipline in trading is paramount to trading longevity, which I consider to be a major goal that all serious traders should aim for.
The best example of this were my BREXIT trades. This trade style was very specific given the trading risk. Whilst I generated over 50% of my pips in 2019 from this trade style, by income it was about 30% of what it would have been via another trade style option.
I am NOT complaining my TRADE PLAN was a 100% success.
I am grateful for my trading successes in 2019; why wouldn’t I be?
The December and 2019 overall performances are as follows: -
December 2019: = +325 net profitable pips.
Year to Date 2019: = +17,566 net profitable pips.
2019 Pip Target: = 10,000 net profitable pips.
Performance Summary: + 175%
Moving on for now...
Now, 2020 is firmly in mind; it will bring different challenges than those in 2019. We have some key geopolitical events in the calendar already, which will drive FX.
This means we will have continued huge levels of uncertainty in 2020
- U.S. Presidential Elections (3rd November 2020).
- BREXIT: UK future relationship with EU (31st December 2020).
- HONG KONG: Continuing issues regarding Legislative protests.
- CHINA / U.S. Trade Deal issues. Phase 1 not yet written / not yet signed.
- IRAN: Nuclear issues and Straits of Hormuz continuing issues with threats to OIL.
- NORTH KOREA: Nuclear aspirations. Peace Deal?
There is no doubt in my mind that 2020 will be challenging.
However, there are two words that I can guarantee will appear more and more next year. FEAR and GREED will continue to drive FX. At the moment equity markets are rallying into the year end and FOMO (Fear of missing out) is in charge of matters, BUT this state of mind will NOT continue through all of 2020 and when FEAR grips once again is could be a bloodbath considering the rallies in 2019. So, we need to be ready and vigilant to capitalize.
To meet the challenge of 2020, I re-examined my trade styles and next year I will be splitting my approach into 3 new trade styles: -
INVESTOR TRADES (INV) CORE POSITIONS: long-term trade time horizons.
BREXIT TRADES: small positions with stop losses in line with Monthly Average True Ranges.
SWING TRADES: based off daily charts looking for moves to continue from 4 hours through to several days, maybe weeks.
More details regarding these TRADE STYLES, can be found on my website home page www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the TAB HISTORY/PERFORMANCE and the drop now menu option titled TRADE STYLE DEFINITIONS.
Finally in this section, whilst we will all be really excited to get started in 2020, bear in mind that it will be at least the middle of week two next year before we have a full market with full liquidity in play. Coming back from the holidays is always a slower exercise than we think it will be.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE: DECEMBER 2019:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW DECEMBER 2019:
BREXIT related trades accounted for over 80% of my pips gained in December.
The FX market in December carried on the same way for me as it had done in almost all of Q4, which was just rangebound with very low volatility.
December itself offered up the continual talk from TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER, MNUCHIN, ROSS and KUDLOW telling us daily that the U.S. and CHINA were close to a Phase 1 deal being signed... then it was agreed... then it was yet to be written up... then it was close again... then it would be signed in early January 2020.
These daily announcements kept feeding the U.S. equity markets that kept buying in a frenzy on every announcement. The fact is nothing is 100% agreed. There is no detail of specifics because there is NO document and NO formal agreement between the two. It’s all on a wink and a nod at the moment!
During December the GBP and the JPY were the currencies that moved along with to a lesser extent the AUD and NZD.
I had written extensively that I would fade JPY, AUD and NZD moves but I have NOT seen moves of conviction, so, I remained sidelined in December. One has to ask a very basic question: - With the S&P at all-time highs why isn’t the USD/JPY at 112.00? Right now, it cannot break 109.70.
I had no confidence trading USD/JPY, AUD/USD or NZD/USD with that backdrop. Hence all my attention was focused around the GBP and the UK election.
Looking at the December performance in more detail.
Just like the larger Financial Institutions, the only thing I have in common with them and the only time in a 12-month period I do what they do on a monthly and quarterly basis, I tidied up my outstanding live and limit orders.
Going into Christmas week, I had +3,000 net pips, BUT, at the same time I was carrying a lot of RISK via my CORE POSITION trades into a low volatility, thin market trading environment, so I took some loss holding trades off the table. I have every intention of replacing these trades early 2020, maybe prior to New Year using both BUY or SELL STOP orders.
Taking this action completely screwed any chance I had of hitting my objective of 50 pips profit per completed trade.
Looking to the positives; I did improve my pips per trade number, in fact, it was the best ever, since starting my fee-paying subscription service. Having just written that, it had to improve given the fact that I had moved to trading with longer-term time horizons. Even with my inclusion of SWING TRADES in 2020, I still want to aim at 50 pips per trade as my objective.
The months performance highlights are below: -
AVERAGE PIPS PER TRADE FROM 2014:
2019 = 35.49
2018 = 19.48
2017 = 21.89
2016 = 15.49
2015 = 20.05
2014 = 19.68
- This is the area that has let me down in 2019. Whilst my average pips per completed trade has never been higher, this is my area for improvement next year.
- +325 pips in the month.
2019 total +17,566 = 175% of my annual objective.
(My prior best year was 2016, when I generated +13,575 pips)My 2019 total pip total could have been higher, it could also have been lower. Just prior to the holiday break, I removed a few trades that were part of a CORE POSITION that were under water to reduce my RISK exposure thru to the New Year.
I could have covered a couple more trades as well but made a call that I wanted my remaining open positions to remain live into 2020.
- My profit / loss trading relationship ratios for the month were 84% positive trades and 16% loss making trades.... above objective of 80% / 20%.The year concluded with an overall 82% / 18%, beating my 80% / 20% target.
Make no mistake, given the year 2019 was, this was a great performance only the pips per trade number failed.
Overall, I am very pleased and positive, it has been my most successful since I launched my subscription service. As with anything in life it is important to count your wins and be grateful.
I am moving into 2020 with a very positive mindset, I will be as creative and intuitive as always to maximize my performance.
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – DECEMBER 2019:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.8: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.9: SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION: – “THE TAG ON”
(This PROMOTION expires on 31st January 2020)
There has never been a better time to join and subscribe.
The following may appear harsh, but it’s true; I am ONLY looking for serious NOT curios traders: -
- I am NOT interested in gamblers; if you want to gamble go to Las Vegas!
- I am NOT interested in traders who over-trade and take larger position sizes proportionally related to the available funds in their broker accounts.
- If you cannot wait for trades to come to you, in my opinion you have to question your mental capacity for longevity of being a trader in the FX market.
- I am looking for FX traders who have patience and want to grow their broker balance over time within acceptable risk guidelines and tolerances.
I can only do what I do and let you know what I am doing, I use: -
- RISK MANAGEMENT
- MONEY MANAGEMENT
- HEAD MANAGEMENT
- TRADE PLANS for specific TRADE STYLES within my overall TRADE PLAN.
- I have measurable TARGETS
- Basically, I trade with DISCIPLINE
If the above interests you and you want longer-term trading views based upon market FUNDAMENTALS, give me your consideration, I have a track record of success. Whilst I cannot guarantee anything, I am NOT trading to lose!
SECTIONS 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. DECEMBER 2019: OVERVIEW and TRADES REVIEW:
3. 2020 - WHAT TRADES & CHALLENGES LIE AHEAD?
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL VIEWS:
5. MY CURRENCY PROJECTIONS 2020:
6. REVISED TRADE REFERENCE NUMBERS FOR 2020:
All that remains to say is have a great New Year’s Eve celebration, if that is what you do.
I am looking forward to 2020. I have stronger challenges by way of financial targets as well as personal objectives to meet, more so than before so I will NOT be sitting back and resting.
The big key to unlock in 2020 will be our “MENTAL” key, using our HEAD MANAGEMENT to good effect. In 2019, we learnt how to bring greater discipline and patience to trading. I firmly believe that this will be a feature again in 2020. As long as we take forward what we learned this year into next year we will have an edge, a joker in our pocket before we start.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #350 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 28th December 2019