That was some month. If you are into bloodbaths with vampires happy days; you are welcome.
I have not seen anyone write that the Coronavirus (Covid-19) was a BLACK SWAN event yet, but with U.S, equities now in full-on correction mode, and given the multiplier effect that transmission and infection of this virus explodes in the early stages, I do not think that the use of that term is far away.
What amazes me still are the amounts of tweets from traders and analysts I thought had more knowledge, never mind common sense, quoting FAKE NEWS over and over again regarding numbers decreasing, it’s all under control etc. Good Lord, do we all believe the TRUMP & KUDLOW “SPIN?”
Analysts, especially institutions based (bank or investment), are NOT to be trusted. They must be madder than a mosquito in a mannequin factory at the moment with some of their positions, especially surrounding the USD/JPY, as very large market-makers were primary in the buying at 110.00, it was not just the Japanese Pension funds. Whoever was involved and there were reportedly “MANY BIG HITTERS” were all slaughtered. They are not just 5 x Mini lot or 1 or 2 Standard lot traders,
My take on this splurge of commentary Tuesday, Wednesday and even Thursday last week was that they were trying to sell their book. They attempt to get “RETAIL” to go opposite to their book in an attempt to move price in their favour. This action was rather similar to farting in the wind... given the comparison in position sizing. This type of move from institutions goes on, everyday BUT right now it’s either complete stupidity or blatant panic on their behalf.
I would like to make one announcement...
There is no doubt in my mind that in the recent sessions FEAR has replaced GREED. We are noting panic selling, capitulation moves in places as some investors run for the exits. I admit there was the KUDLOW trade on Friday late into the close. Frankly, probably gamblers, who could possibly be close to their “exit themselves” given the fact the market is managed by headlines. Who would want to be long RISK into a weekend?
Unless of course they have insider information.... now there’s a cynical thought!
Looking back last week...
TRUMP was inept in his Press Conference just after his return from India. Faced with a true issue, from which he had to calm both the markets and the American population, he failed miserably. His commentary at the beginning was rambling, vague and totally out of touch with reality... many would argue no change there then, at least he was consistent.
KUDLOW was wheeled out to calm markets and he used the well-known CBNC motto... “BUY THE DIP”. Since that announcement the DOW 30 has dropped a further 2,500 points. This was an irresponsible comment and completely underlines White House policy.
Next; we hear moving into the weekend that the markets want the FED to help. FFS...WTF can the FED do?
Never in my life have I heard such bollocks!
We have SUPPLY CHAINS that are broken as a direct effect of the Coronavirus impact. In the name of sanity how the hell can the FED fix SUPPLY CHAINS?
What this is, is nothing more than the markets fed by TRUMP to have not just 0% interest rates but probably zero % rates going forward. Total bollocks; the simple truth is TRUMP is still playing the game consistently to help Don Jr. at TRUMP INTERNATIONAL with its debt position and TRUMP uses FAKE NEWS to promote this goal.
Let me ask this simple question.
Go back a day to Friday (28th February at 11:00AM).
- If the FED cuts rates by 0.25% or 0.50% as an emergency cut....
- Would the markets be rushing to buy stocks?
- I strongly doubt it. So, what is the point of the FED intervening.
- Should they not keep “the ammo” for a rainy day, a much-needed event?
It all falls back to the Commander-in Chief...
TRUMP’s inability to lead, may hold some water with the American population and it could possibly let BERNIE in thru the back door to the White House. This is a growing issue. Let me elaborate, TRUMP gets votes well over his core base and yet many TRUMP voters including big business deny that they vote for TRUMP. Many would say the denial is for obvious reasons, which are very, very well documented. It is also well reported that Wall Street would NOT take kindly to a Sanders victory. The thoughts of the democrats in office would scare many institutions shitless. It all becomes a matter of conscience for the American voter regardless of background.
Based on being Presidential, TRUMP does NOT lead. He does however lie, and he thrives on conflicting announcements so that it is hard to grasp the full details of the timelines, let alone the truth. He lives in thrives in confusion never clarity.
He lied about the missile strike on the air-force base in IRAQ. If he can lie about that he can lie about anything. As we all know... a leopard never changes its spots.
The bottom line, however, was that the three final days of the week gave us basically market meltdowns / bloodbaths in which to trade, apart from the Friday rally in the NASDAQ and that could have just been buybacks!
From a trading perspective, it was fun to have directional volatility once again.
My approach was slow and steady, being aware of possible reversals that could happen on the drop of a hat.
This was all combined with month end flows as well, which made it very interesting for Precious Metal and OIL traders which recorded massive pullbacks last Friday (28th).
From an FX perspective, the USD/JPY, which had caught me out short when it broke above 110.30, from which move I booked losses of 310 pips, got me looking long as it broke higher to finish just above 112.00, at 112.20. Luckily, I exited my longs level, no gain – no loss, just as the pair start to fall, as it decided to re-connect with RISK. It dropped from 112.20 to a low of 107.50, recovering to end the week at 108.00, all in just 6 fast days.
As mentioned earlier, there were allegedly huge numbers of “BIG HITTING” institutional buyers at 110.00, including a huge Japanese Pension Fund. It goes without saying given the move to 107.50 I think they would have all been slaughtered.
The EUR continued its transition to be the new CARRY TRADE with RISK SENTIMENT. Stocks go up, EUR/USD falls and vice-versa.
Anyway, enough of that...
This year, last month (January 2020) I generated via WEEKLY FX PREMIUM trade set ups a total of +2,612 net pips; my new best ever start to a trading year since starting my fee-paying subscription service in 2014.
February 2020 continues the great start with my +pip total being 2,288 pips, which was +23 pips more than in 2019.
Am I happy?
Yes, of course I am, who would not be happy with such a great start. Having said that there are areas that require attention. I will highlight those in the next section of the blog.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW FEBRUARY 2020:
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – FEBRUARY 2020:
1.1.1: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
On first glance, obviously the headline number of +2,288 pips stands out and this was a great return given the fact it was a tricky month in which to trade.
My trading ratios of profit v loss trades was 75% / 25% which was a little below my objective of 80% / 20%. This is NOT surprising given the choppy trading conditions at the start of the month, which with regards to SWING TRADES in particular required me to cover several trades in a hurry! I had one day in particular (5th February) when I covered 7 trades (EUR/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and AUD/CHF) earlier than expected all for losses totaling c.300 pips.
64 trades were completed in the month with a pips per completed trade return of 35.75. This was below my 50.00 objective. As stated earlier this was mainly due to trades being covered earlier than planned.
I am reasonably happy with my mix of trade styles:
SWING TRADES = 32 (50%)
BREXIT TRADES = 11 (17%)
INVESTOR TRADES = 21 (33%)
TOTAL = 64 TRADES
1.1.2: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
Whilst February was a great month for me, it had a little effect on the year to date statistics.
I have achieved 4,900 pips this year so far versus my annual objective of 15,200 pips. This represents 32% of my annual objective.
My Profit / Loss ratios are firm. Overall 83% / 17% against an objective of 80% / 20%. Only SWING TRADES at 77% / 23% are below my annual target.
Pips per completed trade now stands a little lower due to the February numbers and now sits at 44.95 versus my objective of 50.00.
Overall, I cannot be anything other than very happy.
1.1.3: YEAR TO DATE FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN:
Annual pip totals are broken down by TRADE STYLES.
BREXIT = 1,682 pips - Annual Objective = 4,200 pips = 40% so far.
SWING = 1,193 pips - Annual Objective = 3,900 pips = 30% so far.
INVESTOR = 2,025 pips - Annual Objective = 7,100 pips = 28% so far.
TOTAL pips 2020 year to date = 4,900
Annual “Pip Target” = 15,200
% achieved = 32% of annual target achieved so far.
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.8: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
SECTIONS 2, 3, 4 and 5
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
2. FEBRUARY: OVERVIEW and TRADES REVIEW:
3. POTENTIAL TRADES ON THE HORIZON:
4. LONGER-TERM FUNDAMENTAL THOUGHTS & VIEWS:
5. MY CURRENCY PROJECTIONS 2020:
6. THE FINAL SHOT:
6.1: LOOKING AHEAD – THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA & MY THOUGHTS:
There are a lot of high-beta news and economic events due this week, not even counting the CORONAVIRUS. My question at the moment is will some of the economic data take a back seat to the pandemic?
- AUD: RBA Interest Rate Statement:
The markets are expecting no change. Do NOT be surprised to see a 0.25% cut.
- CNY: Caixin Manufacturing PMi:
This data is a lottery. The expectation states 46.1.I have heard rumours of a potential reading of 30.00
- AUD: GDP:
If this misses the AUD will tank lower. With a string of poor data and a rate cut from the RBA we could see 0.6000 in my opinion.
- USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment:
Not as important as in the past as the U.S. gets very, very close to full employment but still a market mover.
- CAD: BOC Interest Rate Decision and Policy Statement:
Like the RBA. No cut is expected do NOT be surprised to see a 0.25% cut.
- AUD: Retail Sales and Trade Balance:
Key data for Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA. Will Retail Sales stay flat? Poor data will only add to the AUD woes.
- CAD: Employment Data:
This should be an interesting number. There is no press conference earlier in the week, so it may be a guessing game.
- USD: Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings:
The biggest news event on the FX calendar. I will say what I always say to my subscribers... “NFP is like a lottery ticket, however, with a lottery ticket at least you stand a chance of winning”. No more needs to be said.
6.2. MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/BLOG VERSION: #358 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 1st March 2020