One month down and eleven to go. Never in a month of Sundays would I have predicted 2020 to kick off the way that it has. One would have thought TRADE WARS, TRUMP IMPEACHMENT, IRAN, NORTH KOREA or BREXIT would have been the geopolitical events to dominate the news, but then, enter the CORONAVIRUS.
As I have written so many times over the past 8 years, the markets operate on FEAR and GREED. For us as traders, this equates to RISK ON or RISK OFF. Market Sentiment, Direction Trading (The trend is your friend) and Global Fundamentals which are all taken into consideration dissected, projected and analyzed basically to death are meaningless in the face of a Global Pandemic. Not even TRUMP can SPIN this; God love him he tried at the beginning in DAVOS stating it was under control (bloody idiot), back in the comfort of the White House, he sent out KUDLOW to pacify the markets and keep the stock markets elevated, I think TRUMP has finally realized this is beyond his SPIN and the use of his puppets is useless.
This blog is a performance review, not a usual “DRIVE THRU” version of my blog, so I do not want to get deep into trading events. However, I do want to make the point, if you are looking at quotes on social media or mainstream media outlets for updating news about the impact and potential widening spread of the CORONAVIRUS, please ONLY pay attention to medical experts.
The amount of misinformation is huge and totally mis-leading. Last week I attended several webinars and the amount of bollocks, misinformation being talked about was scary, if traders based their trades on this information... it was wing and a prayer stuff. Be really careful.
Last year, 2019, I had my best ever start to a trading year generating +2,245 net pips.
This year January 2020 I generated via WEEKLY FX PREMIUM trade set ups a total of +2,612 net pips; my new best ever start to a trading year since starting my fee-paying subscription service in 2014.
Am I happy?
To coin a now sadly deceased UK football panelist (Jimmy Greaves), I am “Over the Moon”, in Personal Development language, I am very grateful.
I know that as a trader you seek out the opportunities based upon your trade style and exploit those opportunities, in my case via “High Probability Trades” based off my FUNDAMENTAL thoughts and TECHNICAL set ups that align.
The USD/JPY was NOT reacting to all-time record highs vis-à-vis the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ and the EUR/USD was in daily trading ranges of sub 40 pips on many, many occasions. Therefore, to generate over +2,500 pips was for me a very pleasing performance. Later in the blog I will highlight more specifics on the January performance review, which for me as a trader are really pleasing, ALL objectives were beaten. Being goal orientated you cannot ask for more than this.
YOUR LAST CHANCE...
THE “TAG ON” NEW SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:
My “TAG ON” promotion for new subscribers to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM was due to expire Friday 31st January 2020 at 23:59 New York time.
I am going to extend this to disappear at 23:59 New York time on Sunday night 2nd February 2020.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW JANUARY 2020:
Let me just get this out there...
ALL my targets, all my objectives that I set myself were beaten.
In section 1.1, the performance is charted, but let me just provide a few highlights here.
NET PIPS: January 2020 = +2,612 pips
2020 OBJECTIVE = +15,200 pips
= 17% of Annual Objective achieved
INVESTOR TRADES = 23 completed trades – 51% of completed trades.
= +1,570 pips = 60% of total pips generated.
SWING TRADES = 9 completed trades – 19% of completed trades.
= +105 pips = 4% of total pips generated.
BREXIT TRADES = 13 completed trades – 31% of completed trades.
= +937 pips = 36% of total pips generated.
TOTAL Completed trades = 45
Positive trades = 42 (93%)
Negative trades = 3 (7%)
OBJECTIVE 2020 = 80% positive / 20% negative
Average Pips Per Trade = 2,612 pips / 45 trades = 58.04 pips per trade.
2020 Objective = 50 pips per completed trade.
Adding a little flesh on the bone....
SWING TRADES: The overall performance was below par primarily as a result of two factors:
Firstly, 2 x EUR/NOK short trades with just 300 pip total losses. I got that trade wrong. I gave the pair plenty of air to correct but I was wrong.
Secondly, what I eluded to earlier in the blog. For most of the month the FX market remained trapped in tight ranges, which are just not conducive to SWING TRADING.
BREXIT TRADES: Trades involving GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD not surprising given RISK OFF conditions really performed well. Most of the pips generated were in the last 10 days of the month, which, coincides with the CORONAVIRUS outbreak.
INVESTOR TRADES: Generally speaking, pips were generated throughout the month. My multi trade approach allowing me to gather pips and build CORE POSITIONS worked very well. There are times when patience is required, with these longer-term positions, but to have multi small position sized trades in play allows me to control my overall position via having great flexibility. When the market stalls it is boring, but with a little volatility this approach to longer-term trading is fulfilling.
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – JANUARY 2020:
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
1.7: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.8: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.9: SUBSCRIPTION PROMOTION: – “THE TAG ON”
(This PROMOTION was due to expire on 31st January 2020. It has been extended to 23:59 New York time on February 2nd, 2020.)
There has never been a better time to join and subscribe.
The following may appear harsh, but it’s true; I am ONLY looking for serious NOT curios traders: -
- I am NOT interested in gamblers; if you want to gamble go to Las Vegas!
- I am NOT interested in traders who over-trade and take larger position sizes proportionally related to the available funds in their broker accounts.
- If you cannot wait for trades to come to you, in my opinion you have to question your mental capacity for longevity of being a trader in the FX market.
- I am looking for FX traders who have patience and want to grow their broker balance over time within acceptable risk guidelines and tolerances.
I can only do what I do and let you know what I am doing, I use: -
- RISK MANAGEMENT
- MONEY MANAGEMENT
- HEAD MANAGEMENT
- TRADE PLANS for specific TRADE STYLES within my overall TRADE PLAN.
- I have measurable TARGETS
- Basically, I trade with DISCIPLINE
If the above interests you and you want longer-term trading views based upon market FUNDAMENTALS, give me your consideration, I have a track record of success. Whilst I cannot guarantee anything, I am NOT trading to lose!
SECTIONS 2, 3, 4 and 5
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
6. THE FINAL SHOT:
There are a lot of high-beta news and economic events due this week, not even counting the CORONAVIRUS. My question at the moment is will some of the economic data take a back seat to the pandemic?
- AUD: RBA Interest Rate Statement:
The markets are expecting a 0.25% rate cut this week. The AUD has been under considerable pressure following the CORONAVIRUS pandemic.
The pressure on commodities was the straw that broke the camels back.
The Australian economy was already under some pressure, so this rate cut was expected in Q1 2020. Let’s see what happens.
- NZD: Employment Data:
I am short this currency across several pairs so I would like to see failing numbers. Of late, in comparison to the AUD, the NZD economic data has been relatively strong.
I am in the camp of let’s see the worst ever data!
- USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment:
Not as important as in the past as the U.S. gets very, very close to full employment but still a market mover.
- USD: ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMi data:
This data may not yet include the effects of the CORONAVIRUS but they are key economic drivers for the USD.
Manufacturing PMi last month was in contraction at 47.2
Non-Manufacturing was positive at 55.0
- AUD: Retail Sales and Trade Balance:
Key data for Philip Lowe, Governor of the RBA.
Will Retail Sales stay positive, is what I will be looking for. Poor data will only add to the AUD woes.
- AUD: RBA Monetary Policy Statement:
I cannot underestimate how key to the AUD this release is. This should definitely be a huge AUD market mover.
- NZD: Inflation Expectations:
For a small G10 economy this release is of huge importance. It should be a big mover for the NZD currency.
- CAD: Employment Data:
The CAD is on the verge of a breakout higher. This data will either enable a push higher and confirm or the CAD will strengthen, and we could see a false breakout move.
- USD: Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings:
The biggest news event on the FX calendar.
I will say what I always say to my subscribers... “NFP is like a lottery ticket, however, with a lottery ticket at least you stand a chance of winning”.
No more needs to be said.
6.2. MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #354 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION
DATE: 31st January 2020