Still moving forward with pip accumulation, but May 2020 was a slowdown in pips and $$$ in a straight comparison to previous months this year. I found the month very difficult to trade at times, and I was caught on the wrong side of a few trades in short squeezes when the only option was to cover some losing positions. In a nutshell these opening couple of sentences provides a macro level overview of why my pips total for May was much lower than in other months this year.
MAY 2020: Net Pip Total = +955 pips
Monthly Average Net Pips: January thru April 2020 = 3,234 pips per month
I have given myself quite a hard time of late questioning if I am too slow in adapting to the new RISK SENTIMENT reality, or should I review my longer-term views?
When trading short-term as a scalper or even a pure session “Day Trader” it is so easy to change opinion and trade direction as you are operating under a very short time frame. As a trader with a wider time horizon this is not no easy. I have no intention of changing back to trading “in the noise” as it does not suit, I just have to react in a different way, my bias does not change with the frequency of the change in wind direction.
Nevertheless, I just cannot in any way complain about my 2020 performance so far: -
Usual Annual Pip Target from 2014 thru 2019 = 10,000 net pips.
2020 initial pip objective was 15,200 net pips
2020 revised to 15,260 pips
Actual net pips achieved 2020 so far = +13,893 pips
Percentage of Annual Objective achieved = 91.04%
So, I can assure you that there is no POVERTY MINDSET vis-à-vis pip accumulation. In fact, moving forward I see no reason why pip abundance does not return.
Later in the blog I will run through in detail the issues I faced with my trading this month.
If you want to know what I am trading and how I view the FX market moving forward, you need to subscribe to THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
Over the next few sections of the FREE NEWSLETTER version, I look at my numbers. It is so easy to gloss over these and they certainly do NOT reflect the hours of screen time invested.
I hope that all my readers are surviving in these ‘cutthroat”, “take no prisoners” markets. If you are able to keep your head above water, great job.
If not; maybe a small investment with THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM may help.
It could: -
- Re-tune your thought process.
- I do NOT have all the answers, I do NOT claim to have them.
- What I do have is a trading discipline.
- I will sit out markets from time to time because one does NOT need to trade every day.
- If you do not understand the moves... don’t trade.
- I have faults... I am NOT perfect (Ask my wife).
- Whilst with me, just trade single lot trades via my trades and compare with your own.
- My consistency (assuming I maintain it!) may highlight something with your trading.
If any of the above resonates with you, why not try a subscription.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW MAY 2020:
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – MAY 2020:
1.1.1: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
- +955 pips in a month. It is c.+1,000 pips and to be frank, generating c. +1,000 pips per month is nothing to be sniffed at. Yes, it could have been several more, but on the other hand it could have been much less.I am not going to compromise my strategy for the sake of a few hundred pips, that just does not make any sense.In May, I struggled with my SWING TRADES as you will see below.
Basically, I had a couple of bad moments in the month. I was caught in a short squeeze on the NZD, at the time I had NZD/USD, NZD/JPY, NZD/CAD and NZD/CHF shorts in play. Had my time horizons on these particular trades been longer-term, I may have reviewed and amended my stop. Things were fairly hectic and a little mad at the time so I decided to do a “cut and run”.
However, the big loss with my SWING TRADES was a long USD/MXN a week earlier that I could no longer hold onto as RISK ON sentiment came blasting through FX. With this trade I had already amended my stop to compensate for news events that could have initiated some MXN volatility. Big support levels caved in one after another and the potential “cliff-edge” drop in price looked a possibility, so I covered for a loss.
All of my other TRADE STYLES returned profits basically in line or above my projections, so no issues there.
It is often said; never be less than grateful for a positive performance irrespective of the number of pips.
- Average pips per trade on completed trades = 26.53 (Objective 50.00).My target in this area was crushed; 11 losing trades in the month saw to that.Sitting back last night and reflecting back on looking at my trading journals, I have to be honest, the trade which produced losses , if I had my time to evaluate over again, I probably still would have taken the trade.
The only exceptions possibly would have been: -
NZD/USD (SWG149) which I booked a loss of 68 pips
NZD/JPY (SWG153) which I booked a loss of 20 pips.
The other NZD crosses looking back, I should have stayed with. We all know by now that hindsight is a wonderful thing. Trading FX, there are no woulda coulda shoulda’s allowed. The market is totally unforgiving and has the ability to take both short and long traders out in a single trading session.
In addition to the issues reflected upon above that related to SWING trades, I also had a mixed performance with MOMENTUM trades.
Looking back through these trades, only USD/JPY (MOM016) stands out as a little too opportunist, from which I booked a 75-pip loss.
In summary, I have exactly the same issue as last month, the shorter time framed trades cause greater profitability issues than those with the longer-term trade horizons.
This area is therefore the area upon which I will be more focused with moving forward.
- Ratio of positive to negative trades = 69% / 31% (Target is 80% / 20%).MOMENTUM TRADES = 55% / 45%
SWING TRADES = 36% / 64%
FUNDAMENTAL TRADES = 100% / 0%
BREXIT TRADES = 100% / 0%
INVESTOR TRADES = 100% / 0%This really amplifies the point made above. The win / loss ratios on the shorter time framed trade styles really did NOT perform last month.
- 37 completed trades are a little lower than my usually number of completed trades.This however does reflect and support my market commentary during the month.Having said that, the reduced number of trades and the fact several can go against you can have an effect on the monthly performance not just on the percentage of win/loss ratios but also on the pips per completed trade.
1.1.2: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
- Total pips for the Year to Date now rest at +13,893 pips, which represents 91% of my annual +15,260 pips target.
- Average pips per completed trade = 46.31 (Objective 50.00).This has dipped lower, dragged down by the shorter time framed trades that failed last month.
- Ratios of Positive to Negative Trades = 76% / 24% just marginally below my objective.
Overall, it's a very positive result so far this year.
I really cannot complain too much, 5 months of the year completed, and I am at 91% of my pip annual target.
1.1.3: YEAR TO DATE FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN:
Annual pip totals are broken down by TRADE STYLES.
MOMENTUM = 75 pips – 2020 Target = 1,080 pips = 7% so far.
SWING = 1,230 pips - 2020 Target = 4,320 pips = 28% so far.
FUNDAMENTAL = 1,033 pips – 2020 Target = 2,700 pips = 38% so far.
BREXIT = 6,235 pips - 2020 Target = 3,200 pips = 195% achieved.
INVESTOR = 5,320 pips - 2020 Target = 3,960 pips = 134% achieved..
TOTAL pips 2020 year to date = 13,893 pips
Annual “Pip Target” = 15,260 pips
% achieved = 91% of annual target achieved so far.
Just to note in comparison to 2019.
At this stage end of May 2019 pips total = 7,906 pips. I am 5,987 pips ahead of my May 2019 performance.
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.4: YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.7: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.8: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
(This section is available to WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers via a separate blog posted to the subscriber only area of my website)
5. THE FINAL SHOT:
5.1: LOOKING AHEAD – THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA & MY THOUGHTS:
This coming week is big on high-beta events. My question remains, will some of the economic data take a back seat due to the pandemic?
- AUD: RBA Interest Rate and Monetary Policy Statement:
The markets are expecting no change.The RBA has 0.25% left and available. More stimulus can still be added, and the RBA could take rates to zero.More stimulus? – personally I think not at this stage. My reason for saying this is that the RBA has been quite proactive of late.
The AUD economy has to cope with CHINA tariffs on Barley exports and increased U.S. / CHINA trade tensions and rhetoric which will possibly get a little fiery over HONG KONG in the coming weeks.
- CAD: BOC Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Statement:The markets are expecting no change.The BOC has 0.25% left and available. More stimulus can still be added, and the BOC could take rates to zero.
More stimulus? – I again think not.
This is the Stephen Poloz curtain call for contributing to the BOC rate statement. His replacement none other than, Tiff Macklem starts work the day following the BOC Monetary Policy Statement.
- EUR: ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference:Following the Franco/German initiated Coronavirus Grants and Loans with a combined total of €750 Billion of support, there is also talk of more easing from the ECB.ECB President Christine Lagarde was quite heavily criticized for doing nothing last time around. She has subsequently been rumoured to be wanting to throw yet another kitchen sink at the problem of zero inflation in the EUROZONE.
My question is, what can she do? Buy Stocks? Will this cause inflation? Personally, I think that the EUROZONE is on the brink of deflation......
Of late the markets seem to think that the sun shines out of the backside of the EU given the fact that Germany is finally prepared to do something to support the weaker economies in the Southern area of the bloc.
Too little too late?
We shall see this week what Ms. Lagarde comes up with. Always worth listening to and noting the contents.
- USD: Non-Farm Unemployment Data:
At the moment the WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS are more of an accurate barometer of U.S. employment numbers. However, NFP is always a market mover. The numbers in this report are valid up to the end of the second week in May.
5.2. MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except for,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 31st May 2020