After the phenomenal pips of +6,166 last month, this month it was a return to the abundance that I am used to +1,872 pips.
Nevertheless no POVERTY MINDSET on pips here! After just 4 months of the year complete and in additional an upward revision of my objective on pips for 2020, I have still achieved: -
84.78% of my annual target
Congratulatory pat on the back complete...
I found April a harder month to trade, that may sound rather obvious given the straight month on month pip comparison with March, however as we all know there is much more to trading than just looking at the bottom line. I struggled in certain areas last month, which I will elude to later when drilling into the numbers a little deeper.
We are still in lockdown; however, over the coming weeks, several countries, provinces and states are relaxing rules in an attempt to bring normality back to our everyday lives. There are of course dangers attached to these moves as the Covid-19 virus is still alive and well and there is NO vaccine in the short or medium term available. If we do see a vaccine for the 7 Billion inhabitants of planet earth, distribution will not be until 2021 for the vast majority if not all of us.
Looking purely at FX and trying my best not to get sidetracked, we are probably in a full G10 recession, if not bordering on a depression when all is said and done.
The bottom line is that we have seen basically very weak GDP Q1 2020 numbers across the G10, and, by all accounts Q2 2020 will be worse.
Plus; Unemployment numbers are skyrocketing, over 30 million in the U.S. (c.20%) and in other countries similar issues will occur after the government assistance ends and we re-boot the world to 2.0. Many of those receiving government support to keep them off the registers I feel will be on the registers as we adapt.
Watching and listening to CNBC and BLOOMBERG last week, their perpetual BULLS have been excavated from beneath their rocks and placed on the TV screen to tell us that a V Shaped recovery is still on, or maybe a U Shaped at worst. We MUST remember, these people are selling their books, they need prices elevated. The market negative voices are there, but you have to listen and watch all day to catch them, as they represent a small fraction of the overall commentary that is voiced and are basically ignored from the headlines.
As mentioned in last week’s blog I just don't see it, referencing a V Shaped recovery.
Below is the DAILY S&P500 INDEX chart.
I have placed all my thoughts on the chart. We have a false breakout. These are usually nice reversal patterns and the fact we had a weekly close below 2,850 S&P points also adds weight to a continued move lower as indicated on the chart.
Something additional to consider...
Whether this thought applies this year I am not sure. Soon we will be entering the summer months, I used to always refer to the summer doldrums of trading where watching paint dry is more exciting.
Will we see equity markets just drift lower based on anticipated poor Q2 GDP data and sit there until we see Q3 start?
I know it sounds crazy given the market volatility of late to think this way BUT will we have a cool down and a wait and see moment... a moment of 2/3 months?
I am set up and have been for a few weeks ready for a weakness in equities to come through. It has been a patient set up, not just because of the fact the markets are looking for a snippet of positive news to pounce on, but simply every time I felt things were about to turn in my favour one Central Bank or another would step in with even more liquidity.
All the liquidity available, all the schemes with fancy TLA (Three letter abbreviations) on the planet cannot provide a vaccine. The world needs a vaccine that had been tested, analyzed and proven safe to manufacture in massive quantity. What the world does NOT need is some great fecking’ idiot promoting Dettox or Clorox injections or sitting under a sun lamp as a way to rid the Coronavirus... FFS what a fecking’ dick TRUMP is.
Back on point...
What I was trying to get to was that sooner rather than later economics will rule, my old Economics lecturers David Woods and John McCabe would just love this sentence!
When economics takes pole position, we get reality. Right now, for example the FED printing presses in Texas are going 24 x 7 and the FED has implemented policies and structures aimed at destroying the USD... How has that worked out for them so far? When equities pullback so will the DXY in my opinion.
We have lots of pip abundance on the horizon through Q2 and into Q3 in my opinion.
If you want to know what I am trading you need to subscribe to THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
Over the next few sections of the FREE NEWSLETTER version, I look at the numbers. It is so easy to gloss over these and they certainly do NOT reflect the hours of screen time invested.
I hope that all my readers are surviving in these ‘cutthroat”, “take no prisoners” markets. If you are able to keep your head above water, great job.
If not; maybe a small investment with THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM may help.
It may: -
- Re-tune your thought process.
- I do NOT have all the answers, I do NOT claim to have them.
- What I do have is a trading discipline.
- I will sit out markets from time to time because one does NOT need to trade every day.
- If you do not understand the moves... don’t trade.
- I have faults... I am NOT perfect (Ask my wife).
- Whilst with me, just trade single lot trades via my trades and compare with your own.
- My consistency (assuming I maintain it!) may highlight something with your trading.
If any of the above resonates with you try a subscription.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW APRIL 2020:
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – APRIL 2020:
1.1.1: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
- +1,872 pips in a month. Never, be less than grateful for a positive performance irrespective of the number of pips.
By way of comparison, in April 2019, I managed +509 pips, so it was a beat by +1,363 pips.
- Average pips per trade on completed trades = 35.32 (Objective 50.00).
This was my weakness last month. I did NOT have the consistency that I had earlier in the year. The market sentiment shifts really caught me out, especially with SWING and MOMENTUM trades. These trade styles are based on tighter stops and initially shorter time frames so I could potentially get caught “in the noise” which I appeared to do on a few occasions.
27 (almost 50%), of my monthly trades were contained within these two trade styles and my pip return combined was negative in the month... enough said!!
Must do better....
- Ratio of positive to negative trades = 68% / 32% (Target is 80% / 20%).
MOMENTUM TRADES = 50% / 50%
SWING TRADES = 46% / 54%
FUNDAMENTAL TRADES = 77% / 13%
BREXIT TRADES = 110% / 0%
INVESTOR TRADES = 83% / 17%
This really amplifies the point made above. The win / loss ratios on the shorter time framed trade styles really did NOT perform last month.
- 53 completed trades are more in line with my revised projections for the year.
1.1.2: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
- Total pips for the Year to Date now rest at +12,938 pips, which represents almost 85% of my annual +15,260 pips target.
- Average pips per completed trade = 49.19 (Objective 50.00).
This has dipped lower dragged down by the shorter time framed trades that failed last month.
- Ratios of Positive to Negative Trades = 78% / 22% just marginally below my objective.
Overall, it's a very positive result so far this year.
I really cannot complain too much, 4 months of the year completed, and I am at 85% of my pip annual target.
1.1.3: YEAR TO DATE FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN:
Annual pip totals are broken down by TRADE STYLES.
MOMENTUM = -65 pips – 2020 Target = 1,080 pips = 0% so far.
SWING = 1,739 pips - 2020 Target = 4,320 pips = 40% so far.
FUNDAMENTAL = 738 pips – 2020 Target = 2,700 pips = 27% so far.
BREXIT = 6,030 pips - 2020 Target = 3,200 pips = 188% achieved.
INVESTOR = 4,496 pips - 2020 Target = 3,960 pips = 113% achieved..
TOTAL pips 2020 year to date = 12,938 pips
Annual “Pip Target” = 15,260 pips
% achieved = 84.8% of annual target achieved so far.
Just to note in comparison to 2019.
At this stage end of April 2019 pips total = 6,212 pips. I am 6,726 pips ahead of 2019 as at the end of April.
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
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1.7: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.8: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4 - WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
(This section is only available to WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers via a separate version of this blog)
5. THE FINAL SHOT:
This coming week is big on high-beta events. My question remains, will some of the economic data take a back seat due to the pandemic?
- AUD: RBA Interest Rate Statement:
The markets are expecting no change.
The RBA has 0.25% left and available. More stimulus can still be added, and the RBA could take rates to zero.
- NZD: JOBS DATA:
Always a market mover. Based on the fact that Jacinda Ardern, possibly the most “REAL WORLD” leader on the planet, has taken huge restrictions of movement domestically out of the way, we should see pretty close to the base from where to start measuring from moving forward.
- GBP: Bank of England- Interest Rates and MPS:
Not sure what may happen here. I do NOT think negative rates will be introduced, but we may see more stimulus.
- AUD: Monetary Policy Statement:
Always worth listening to and noting the contents.
- CAD: Jobs Data:
Trudeau has come in for some criticism, although not really too sure what else he could have done, initially. Of late he has stepped up, but the CAD economy is reeling from low OIL prices and poor jobs data could bring in greater stimulus.
- USD: Weekly Unemployment Claims:
We have seen 30 million claiming so far, how much higher will this figure go. Will we see a plateau soon?
- USD: Non-Farm Unemployment Data:
Always a market mover.
Forecast numbers are for - 21 million from the registers. This is a stab in the dark to be honest. We are expecting poor numbers.
From my perspective the WEEKLY CLAIMS are a much better and stronger indicator at the moment.
5.2. MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #365 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 3rd May 2020