Another month complete and just one more DRIVE THRU blog next week and then I have a break from blogging until September 6th.
Remaining totally honest with my content each week, I am ready for a break from looking at screens and chart analysis for a while. Do not get me wrong my overall performance so far this year has been nothing short of bloody fantastic as far as I am concerned, although over the past 4/5 weeks there are some noticeable tweaks that need to be worked on as I am not 100% happy with my all round performance.
The big news to come from June 2020, was that I hit my 2020 target on net pips of +15,260 pips.
June 2020 performance = +1,714 pips
2020 Year to Date = +15,607 pips
2020 Pip Target = +15,260 pips
102% target now achieved
The top line numbers are always what people look at and upon which they count you as being effective or non-effective. In a few areas that are very important to me I am NOT performing despite the pip tally’s recorded. It is not for the want of trying, maybe I am trying too hard and this is why I believe a step back for a few weeks, 7 in total, has possibly come at a good time.
Over the next few sections of the FREE NEWSLETTER version, I look at my numbers in greater detail. As mentioned already, it is so easy to gloss over these and they certainly do NOT reflect the hours of screen time invested.
Moving on, looking from a macro viewpoint back over Q2 and H1....
Seeing the back of June 2020 not only brought us to the end of Q2 but also the completion of H1 2020.
I have to say trying to find the words to sum up 2020 so far is hard... what springs to mind right now are rather simplistic responses such at WTF and FFS.
As a Monty Python fan there is a well quoted line “Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition”, well I can give you a cast iron bet your life on it, that nobody expected the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic let alone a pandemic itself!
So much happened that makes reality TV shows look lame by comparison. We were all participating in a 24 x 7 production. World leaders were foxed. In the GFC it was Central Bankers who became the rock stars, this time around disease specialists took the forefront in most countries. Politicians yielded to the experts for guidance in most countries.
The biggest exception was of course America. Sometimes it scares me shitless living in Canada that I live in such close proximity.
- When most world leaders yielded to medical experts....
TRUMP saw it as an opportunity to make the pandemic press briefings about him and made them into 2020 election propaganda.
- When most leaders let the medical experts take the lead on vaccine progress and possible timescales involved...
TRUMP led himself advising people to take a drug called “Hydroxychloroquine” “it’s great I take it” was the classic quote – this drug was found to serve no benefits at all vis-à-vis the coronavirus, in fact, one study stated that it was not only ineffective but harmful.
Not happy with attempt one...
TRUMP went as far as... Try a glass or two of Dettox or any “Bleach product”, or better still sit in some strong light.
- Most world leaders who let the medical experts lead are now into partial or full economy openings...
To be fair many leaders may have got into re-opening mode right in the moment but so far any spikes have been identified and sorted very quickly through “track and trace” policies.
TRUMP was floundering. Too many awkward questions in his press briefings about how the U.S. was failing to cope. A failed Tulsa election rally followed the daily press briefings being cut because TRUMP could NOT give up the limelight and his failings and inadequacies as a leader were becoming very obvious and apparent.
Basically, TRUMP walked away and as a result America is now fucked. Whatever leadership there was, there is none now, no national strategy and 50 states are doing their own thing. New cases of Covid-19 are at record daily highs and cases are rising in over 35 states. Where is TRUMP?
TRUMP is in denial and his puppets MNUCHIN and KUDLOW are only talking about the economy opening up and consumption. Crazy or what, dereliction of duty? It’s all madness. KUDLOW still talks in terms of a V shaped economy. I love his optimism, but it is nothing more than a figment of misguided loyalty to a leader that cannot lead.
TRUMP still believes that Wall Street represents the U./S. economy. The FED has created a monster through its policy of killing all markets except equities. The only place to obtain yield is through buying stocks. All the financial institutions know the FED will print and print money to backstop everything sensible or not. So, it's a BUY THE DIP, BUY THE LOT and KEEP ON BUYING, BUYING market.
Other items that concern America such as: -
- OIL which priced negative in price at one point in this half year.
- HONG KONG with a new security law is now under complete Beijing control.
- CHINA Phase 1 trade deal. It’s is 20% completed at the moment based upon the agreed purchases.
- RUSSIA paying militants to kill U.S. soldiers. TRUMP denials. Claims he never saw intelligence placing U.S. troops in harm’s way.
- NORTH KOREA saying TRUMP not keeping his end of the deal.
- JOHN BOLTON’S book “The Room Where It Happened” it all sounds plausible to me.
The above is really on the back burner to a large extent but combined with his domestic failures on Covid-19 and Racial Tensions, to quote Glenn Frey “The Heat is on”. Hence my earlier comments of WTF and FFS before...
Moving on again...
Twelve years after the GFC the global economy is stuffed up (technical term) with debt subsidized by zero interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) which, shows zero structural growth, whilst at the same time the world leaders are desperately hoping that a cheap money asset bubble world economy doesn’t blow up.
Think about it...
Corporate profits and growth peaked about 5 years ago.
Margins are now dropping at the same time debt is exploding and yield is only a word found in a dictionary it means bugger all now in the financial world. Plus, unemployment is rising and to top it all the Central Banks are shit scared of ever even mentioning the possibility that they may raise interest rates.
I have often said it’s all about commodities regardless of what you trade.
GOLD: Q2 up 12.29% and H1 up 16.80%
COPPER: Q2 up 21.13% and H1 down by 2.87%
WTi (OIL): Q2 up 95.97% and H1 down by 35.65%
BRENT (OIL): Q2 up 82.30% and H1 down by 37.30%
What does the above tell me?
Firstly that there is an economic recovery underway. It also tells me that investors are turning to the safety of GOLD. It is yielding similar to equities at the moment. There was a time GOLD was a pure RISK play. Maybe it still is and that is where the smart money has gone.
As money rotates from overpriced U.S. equities some may go to GOLD, into EUROPEAN equities or simply be held in some quantities in cash.
Without doubt last month was an extension of the confusion and uncertainty reflected throughout H1. Fundamentals count for diddley at the moment, when they do start to matter the over-valued U.S. equity market bubble will burst in spectacular fashion and the numbers of bankruptcies will be unprecedented.
I firmly believe that the smart money is moving now and has been for a little while already. There will be lots of opportunities in FX. At the moment the FED is happy to sacrifice the USD, but in a severe market “BLACK SWAN” event the USD will rip higher.
Do not get too attached to USD shorts would be thoughts from H1.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW JUNE 2020:
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – JUNE 2020:
1.1.1: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
- +1,714 pips was a great result looking at the top line BUT there were several failures in this performance.
I can be smart and say with 100% conviction that this performance in June completely vindicates my decision to walk away at the start of the year from shorter time-framed trading. I can say this because it was my INVESTOR TRADES that brought home the bacon.
- The main trade that yielded most pips in June was my core long INVESTOR TRADE position (CP20) with the EUR/AUD.
I have never done so many “RINSE ‘N REPEAT” trades before buying at lows and trying to add to the core long position but having to settle for 100, 125 or 150 pips at a time.
My core long GBP/USD (CP15) also chipped in as well as the EUR/CHF (CP11) with a little help from the SNB.
All of the trades are highlighted later in section 1.3.
- My biggest failing in June was once again my SWING TRADES. I recorded a loss of 541 pips on these trades. 23 completed trades 14 losing and only 9 made pips. As stated earlier in the month I was well and truely stuffed on a short squeeze and I exited several trades at the same time and never recovered.
The failing with my AUD trades were never compensated enough with several good CAD related trades. You can see these in section 1.3.
- I also took a beating with FUNDAMENTAL trades although was mainly due to three trades one with AUD/USD and two with USD/MXN, once again these can be seen in section 1.3.
- From 67 trades completed 46 were positive trades and 21 losing trades. From 1,714 pips produced this meant that my average pip per completed trade fell to just 25.58. My objective is for 50.00.
- Ratio of positive to negative trades = 68% / 32% (Target is 80% / 20%).
MOMENTUM TRADES = 66% / 34%
SWING TRADES = 39% / 61%
BREXIT TRADES = 100% / 0%
INVESTOR TRADES = 100% / 0%
This really amplifies the point made above. The win / loss ratios on the shorter time framed trade styles really did NOT perform last month.
In summary, I have been failing in a couple of areas during Q2, most noticeably SWING TRADES and my pip per trade numbers.
The easy solution is to stop SWING TRADES. That's too easy for me. During Q3 and H2 I have two very specific goals, to improve trade selection vis-à-vis SWING TRADES and in so doing my pip per trade numbers will climb back towards my target of 50.00.
1.1.2: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
- Total pips for the Year to Date now rest at +15,607 pips, which represents 102% of my annual +15,260 pips target.
- Average pips per completed trade = 42.53 (Objective 50.00).
This has dipped lower, dragged down by the shorter time framed trades that failed last month.
- Ratios of Positive to Negative Trades = 75% / 25% just marginally below my objective.
Overall, it's a very positive result so far this year.
I really cannot complain too much, 6 months of the year completed, and I have reached my annual target on pips.
1.1.3: YEAR TO DATE FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN:
Annual pip totals are broken down by TRADE STYLES.
MOMENTUM = 115 pips – 2020 Target = 1,080 pips = 10% so far.
SWING = 689 pips - 2020 Target = 4,320 pips = 16% so far.
FUNDAMENTAL = 693 pips – 2020 Target = 2,700 pips = 26% so far.
BREXIT = 6,675 pips - 2020 Target = 3,200 pips = 208% achieved.
INVESTOR = 7,435 pips - 2020 Target = 3,960 pips = 188% achieved..
TOTAL pips 2020 year to date = 15,607 pips
Annual “Pip Target” = 15,260 pips
% achieved = 102% of annual target achieved so far.
Just to note in comparison to 2019.
At this stage end of June 2019 pips total = 8,646 pips. I am 6,961 pips ahead of my June 2019 performance.
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.7: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.8: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
(These sections are only available to WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers and are distributed via a separate version of this blog)
2. JUNE 2020: OVERVIEW:
2.1: GENERAL OVERVIEW:
2.2: MOMENTUM TRADES:
2.3: SWING TRADES:
2.4: FUNDAMENTAL TRADES:
2.5: BREXIT TRADES:
2.6: INVESTOR TRADES (CORE POSITION):
3. LOOKING AHEAD - TRADES & OTHER INFORMATION:
3.2: SUNDAY MORNING CHARTS:
3.3: LIVE BROADCASTS:
4. LOOKING AHEAD – FUNDAMENTALS TO CONSIDER:
5. THE FINAL SHOT:
5.1: LOOKING AHEAD – THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA & MY THOUGHTS:
- AUD: RBA Interest Rate and Monetary Policy Statement:
The markets are expecting no change.
The RBA has 0.25% left and available. More stimulus can still be added, and the RBA could take rates to zero.
More stimulus? – personally I think not at this stage. My reason for saying this is that the RBA has been quite proactive of late.
- CAD: Jobs Data:
The markets will be expecting an improvement over last month’s 289.6k and a reduction in the unemployment rate lower from 13.7%
5.2. MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except for,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #374 FREE NEWSLETTER