I have about 50% of my summer break from blogging completed. I am still trading albeit managing existing trades that were in place prior to my summer holiday, with a few exceptions if I am in front of my screens.
So, with that said, this blog and my August performance blog will really only be a compilation of excel spreadsheets showing the monthly and year to date totals. The next version of the usual blog format of the DRIVE THRU will be posted on the 6th September 2020.
However, I must take the opportunity to make a few overview comments about July 2020; whilst my overall result was positive, I was taken to the cleaners on trades with shorter time frame horizons. I made a rather embarrassing basic error in judgement on a couple of trades that were exacerbated by a short squeeze from which I decided to cover several positions for losses. I recovered my losing overall position mainly through my longer-term INVESTOR trades.
I had several Zoom meetings with my peer group, which covers all asset classes. We looked from all viewpoints at the current market conditions in play for the summer through to future thoughts and ideas up to the U.S. Presidential election in November. There was a lot of disagreements on the various outcome scenarios relating to, the pandemic in the U.S., Europe and the rest of the world, the USD, Equities, Bonds and the Presidential election. Hence our usual once a month session became three!
The fact that we did not have a consensus of opinion is hardly surprising given: -
- With the main commodity currencies (AUD, NZD and CAD) basically range bound conditions, they are in my opinion underperforming.
- The USD being taken to the cleaners
- GBP breakout despite BREXIT
- EUR strength
- A crappy bond market
- Equities seemingly in a one-way market
- About 25% of the market is based around moves in Tech giants: - FACEBOOK, APPLE, AMAZON, NETFLIX GOOGLE, MICROSOFT and TESLA.
- The FED happy to stand by and support what I believe to be a bubble, the size of which has never been seen before
- Stock market valuations re-writing history vis-à-vis acceptable multiples
- A worldwide recession
- GDP data worldwide at record declines
With all the above in place all at the same time and 5 strong personalities in place, the zoom screen moving from person to person who spoke was like watching a ping-pong ball on a table tennis set move fast from side to side. I needed an “Advil” at the end!
My overall comment throughout was THE STOCK MARKET IS NOT THE ECONOMY......
We talk again in a couple of weeks with revised strategies.
My overall point here is that if our group cannot be in the same book never mind be on the same page, what must it be like for the various market institutions formulating a strategy. I have subsequently to the last zoom meeting watched a lot of CNBC and BLOOMBERG and once again continued to attend webinars to see if I am fundamentally miles away from reality. In my opinion, I am NOT, in fact I have watched and listened to traders being taken down the wrong route completely on trades.
This desire by FX traders to be contrarian, the desire to pick bottoms and tops is just insane at times and breakouts in this environment are 90% false moves. I am missing nothing. I have witnessed some crappy trade set up ideas. I am NOT saying my trade set ups are perfect, of late, I have been off point, I admit this BUT fundamentally I feel comfortable.
I will update you at the end of August on “The battle of the Ego’s” when we resume our peer to peer zoom meeting in August!
What about the July 2020 totals?
July 2020 performance = +1,318 pips
2020 Year to Date = +16,925 pips
2020 Pip Target = +15,260 pips
111% target now achieved
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE:
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - PERFORMANCE OVERVIEW JULY 2020:
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS – JULY 2020:
1.1.1: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
- +1,318 pips was a great result looking at the top line BUT like last month there were several failures in this performance.Once again, the shorter-term trades pulled my performance down, almost 800 negative pips from my MOMENTUM and SWING trades.
- My BREXIT and INVESTOR trades really produced once again. The BREXIT trades as a direct result of the cable moving from around 1.2400 at the start of the month closing c. 1.3100. A gain of c.700 pips in the month really benefitted my cross-rate BREXIT trades. INVESTOR trades were boosted via a strong mix of my 4 live CORE POSITIONS with trades involving EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF, GBP/USD and AUD/NZD.All of the trades are highlighted later in section 1.3.
- My biggest failing in June was once again my SWING TRADES. I also make a schoolboy error trading the USD/MXN long via my MOMENTUM trades and let my stop be taken prior to decent next level support. Literally minutes later the pair squeezed higher almost back to my initial entry point...argh!!However, it was a short squeeze involving primarily the CAD that took me down. At the time of the squeeze I was involved with the USD/CAD and NZD/CAD combined a loss of just over 200 pips. I also had a couple of poor JPY cross rate trades involving the AUD and NZD. Basically, I was trying to pick a top and failed miserably.
- From 50 trades completed 40 were positive trades and 10 losing trades. From 1,318 pips produced this meant that my average pip per completed trade was a little better than last month at 26.39, but still well short of my 50.00 objective.
- Ratio of positive to negative trades = 80% / 20% on target.MOMENTUM TRADES = 66% / 34%
SWING TRADES = 27% / 73%
FUNDAMENTAL TRADES = 100% / 0%
BREXIT TRADES = 100% / 0%
INVESTOR TRADES = 100% / 0%
The easy solution is to stop shorter time horizon trades. That's too easy for me to consider at the moment. During Q3 and H2 I have two very specific goals, to improve trade selection vis-à-vis MOMENTUM and SWING TRADES and in so doing my pip per trade numbers will climb back towards my target of 50.00.
1.1.2: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
- Total pips for the Year to Date now rest at +16,925 pips, which represents 111% of my annual +15,260 pips target.
- Average pips per completed trade = 40.59 (Objective 50.00).This has dipped lower, dragged down by the shorter time framed trades that failed last month.
- Ratios of Positive to Negative Trades = 76% / 24% just marginally below my objective.
Overall, it's a very positive result so far this year.
I really cannot complain too much, 7 months of the year completed, and I have blasted through my annual target on pips.
1.1.3: YEAR TO DATE FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN:
Annual pip totals are broken down by TRADE STYLES.
MOMENTUM = (234) pips – 2020 Target = 1,080 pips = (21.67)% so far.
SWING = 254 pips - 2020 Target = 4,320 pips = 6% so far.
FUNDAMENTAL = 829 pips – 2020 Target = 2,700 pips = 31% so far.
BREXIT = 7,402 pips - 2020 Target = 3,200 pips = 231% achieved.
INVESTOR = 8,674 pips - 2020 Target = 3,960 pips = 219% achieved..
TOTAL pips 2020 year to date = 16,925 pips
Annual “Pip Target” = 15,260 pips
% achieved = 111% of annual target achieved so far.
Just to note in comparison to 2019.
At this stage end of July 2019 pips total = 9,636 pips. I am 7,289 pips ahead of my July 2019 performance.
1.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.3: THE TRADES:
1.4: YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY
1.5: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
1.6: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
NOTE: THE SUBSCRIBER SUMMER PROMOTION below in section 1.7.
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
1.7: SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION: “DOUBLE UP – EXTRA”
Full details and additional supporting data can be found on my website home page https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the SUBSCRIBE then clicking lower to the PROMOTIONS tab.
Additionally, below I provide the marketing flyers relating to the promotion.
1.8: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – PIP PROJECTION 2020:
1.9: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
SECTIONS 2, 3 and 4 - WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
(These sections are only available to WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers and are delivered via a separate blog)
5: MY FREE E BOOK:
“FOREX TRADING MY WAY... IT COULD ALSO WORK FOR YOU”
Is available, if you would like a copy.
Existing subscribers to this FREE NEWSLETTER need to send me a request for the E BOOK to the email they receive this blog post from. The file size is too big for Constant Contract to cope with.
If you are not a subscriber. To obtain a copy of my FREE E BOOK become a subscriber to this FREE NEWSLETTER by either;
1. Go to my home page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com and complete the registration via the “SIGN UP” box on the right hand side
2. Go to my twitter page @pipaccumulator click on my pinned tweet at the top of my page and complete the sign up.
6: MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except for,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #377 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 2nd August 2020