Last week was a big week in the FX market, well it was for me, the positions that I had been patiently building and patiently waiting to come through, came through.
The week was one of my best performing weeks in FX only beaten previously by the Boris Johnson landslide election victory in the UK in December 2019. What has me really happy is that I was totally calm, building my positions mainly with the USD/MXN and EUR/AUD. My standard RISK OFF go to trading pairs.
USD/MXN = +22,800 pips.
Real value of pips = 5%, which means +1,140 normal value pips added.
EUR/AUD = +450 pips.
Over +1,500 pips alone from these two pairs alone.
My DOUBLE UP promotion that completed a couple of weeks ago, carried with it a PIP PROJECTION from September 1st thru December 31st of +3,940 net new pips. To date from September 1st, I have added +3,527 pips, which is 89.5% of the 4-month target achieved already.
For those of you who subscribed to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM in August and early September, you must be happy. To those who decided against subscribing for whatever reason, here is what you missed.
A single lot trade @+3,527 pips at $1 per trade = USD$3,527.00
Less an annual subscription of CAD$1,250 = USD$995.00
Gives you a net USD$2,532.00.
Under the terms of the “DOUBLE UP” promotion you would now have an annual subscription that ends on September 13th, 2022, which means that ALL your trading with the FX PREMIUM from now for the next 23 months would be 100% FREE.
Fundamentals are kicking in, or at the very least they are now being taken seriously by the markets. We have a very interesting run in to the end of 2020 as the fundamentals take hold and unfold.
1. THE SOAPBOX:
IS CABLE HEADING TOWARDS THE ROCKS?
Lots of news vis-à-vis the cable in the media and its potential moves in the future, as a result of the partial pandemic shutdown through to March next year and right in the middle we have a BREXIT to accommodate.
Boris Johnson has a BREXIT deal deadline of October 14th 2020. Is this still in place given the recent developments in the UK regarding the pandemic and the new shutdown measures?
I am going to assume that the deadline for BREXIT remains in place. There is NO reason why Boris Johnson would alter it.
At the moment he is fighting Tory rebels within the Conservative Party on two fronts: -
- Boris, tactically (I believe) has threatened to break international law by overwriting unilaterally parts of the existing withdraw agreement between the UK and the EU over Northern Ireland.I believe this is a tactic to force the hand of the EU and a threat he will NOT activate, BUT, holding his cards close to his chest, Johnson has politicians both sides of the English Channel frothing at the mouth.
- Johnson recently announced this past week that a revision of the pandemic rules on working, social gatherings, pubs and restaurant closing times etc. through to the end of March 2021, he used a phrase “A perilous turning point” to describe the UK’s current position regarding the pandemic.Despite these words of concern, some Tory rebels believe the 6-month timeline to be draconian and the period involved should be shortened.
So, we have fundamentals to consider and timelines to note.
Without stating the absolute obvious, yes.... trading cable will be a volatile event. Those of you who have been following me over the past year or so, already know my thoughts on BREXIT.
I believe a deal of sorts will be agreed. It may be a CRAP deal for the UK, or it may be a CRAP deal for both the UK and the EU, who knows? What I do know however is that once a deal is done and signed off, all the uncertainty within the markets is removed. There are no, if ands or buts to debate.
Yes, cable will continue to be headline driven until the deadlines. We know this and as FX traders we accept this fact as routine.
HEADING FOR THE ROCKS?... I am just not that sure.
Over the past couple of months, a great deal of the BREXIT uncertainty has been getting priced into the GBP. Institutions have been getting prepared and the amount of chat and column inches devoted to the outlook of cable has been phenomenal.
What about me?
I recently closed my CORE POSITION (CP15) long the GBP/USD which, opened on 16th December 2019 and closed 31st August 2020.
37 trades in total.
+ 2,708 pips
Average pips per trade = +73.19 pips.
After closing the position, I advised my FX PREMIUM subscribers that I would re-enter long again on a pullback.
My longer-term views of the UK economy even allowing for BREXIT and COVID -19 are still positive. Everything is relative in my eyes. The pandemic effects are the same if not worse in the EU.
I still see fair value of the GBP/USD closer to 1.5500. Today we sit sub 1.3000.
Now remember, I am a POSITION / INVESTOR long-term horizon trader and as seen before with my last CORE POSITION trade that lasted almost 9 months my trading time horizons are longer than many traders.
Over the coming weeks, I will start building a fresh long position. The chart lower down in this section gives you an idea of what I am looking at as entry areas, but it is my FX PREMIUM subscribers that will obviously receive actual trades that I am taking and my reasons why.
HEADING FOR THE ROCKS?
Its all down to perspective, a return to the March 2020 lows of 1.1400 would be rocks in my opinion. I just do not see that happening given the news that is available to mull over today.
I have a possible entry zone on the DAILY CHART below. I prefer to enter my CORE POSITIONS with BUY STOP orders as well as LIMIT ORDERS.
In my opinion a move lower than 1.2250 would be drastic and then definitely the 1.2000 trade long is back on, but I am just not convinced even with the worst of all worst news to hand that we will head this low. Never say never, is the phrase to keep in mind. Should we head that low, happy days as far as I am concerned as the move to the long side will be even greater than what is in my mind at the moment.
2. SUBSCRIBE TO THE DRIVE THRU “ZOOM”:
It’s 100% FREE.
If you subscribe to this FREE NEWSLETTER, which is posted 40 times a year, not only will you receive this blogpost sent directly to your inbox, you will also receive a link to view THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM.
THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM takes a 30-45 minute look each week at upcoming news events, plus a chart analysis review of the DXY and the USD Major pairs.
In addition, you will also receive a FREE COPY of my E BOOK titled: - “Forex Trading My Way... It Could Also Work For You”
3. THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM:
3.1: FX PREMIUM MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
3.2: PERFORMANCE COMPARISON vs “DOUBLE -UP” PROMOTION:
3.3: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:
The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is my subscriber based FX support option, which offers, subscribers’ full access to my suggested trade set-ups and my market commentaries.
If you go to my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com you will see more information about the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
Lots of information about the way I do things, plus, previous reports about my trades, my trade styles and my trade projections for the year are located on my home page by selecting the appropriate tab located at the top of my home page.
There are 4 options for subscribing: -
- Monthly revolving subscription following a 10 day for $10 trial then a monthly CAD$200.00 per month.
- 10 weeks (c.3 months) = CAD$450.00The entry level is with a 3 month’s (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
- 20 weeks (c.6 months) = CAD$750.00
- 40 weeks (c.12 months) = CAD$1,250.00
Further information about how to subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is also located at the top of my welcome page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “SUBSCRIBE” tab.
4. CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Finally, as usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #382 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 27th September 2020