SCRATCHING A LIVING ON FUNDAMENTALS

Welcome to my revised “FREE NEWSLETTER - DRIVE THRU” blog.

Everything that was previously discussed in this FREE NEWSLETTER version that is NOT here today will be discussed on the DRIVE THRU ZOOM pre-recorded meeting which is posted only to subscribers of this blog.

If you want the “ZOOM” addition, you will need to subscribe to this newsletter. This can be done by visiting my website at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com
On my home page on the right hand side you will see where to subscribe.

So, here we go...

1. THE SOAPBOX:

SCRATCHING A LIVING ON FUNDAMENTALS:

Tenacity is something that all FX traders require in abundance to succeed over the long-term. Not very many books tell you this at the outset of getting hooked on trading Forex, in fact, from my own experience, even the company I got started with is now long gone. It was a wet and windy day on vacation in Vancouver when my wife and I saw a TV advert encouraging attendance at a Forex presentation from that company which is now long gone. Merger after merger in a declining U.S. market saw it eventually disappear.

The presentation was slick and looking at charts and guidelines to trade it seemed so simple, not only did I sign up BUT my wife did as well as we thought easy peasy off we go. Naïve, stupid, idiotic or stupid we both thought we had a great tool at our fingertips. The system gathered dust for a couple of months and then we decided to step up. My wife had to stop because it was too intense, she was by pure definition a scalping trader. Immediately, I knew, I was NOT a scalper trader, I was way back then taking a longer time frame to trade.

If my wife was trading today, she would be trading much more than I am trading.

Do NOT get me wrong, I have achieved my 2020 goals vis-à-vis net pips gained and I have launched a promotion for new subscribers with a separate pip target projection through to the end of 2020.

Why am I NOT therefore bubbling over with an extreme creative and entrepreneurial mindset?

It is of course quite simple; being a FUNDAMENTAL trader in the middle of a pandemic, one would think I would have the opportunity to max out on trades based upon macros, regretfully, that is just NOT the case. Rigged markets have simply drained FX of practically all technical and fundamental ideology. We are trading mostly inside a range bound chopfest and false breakouts and breakdowns are frequent.

I like to set trades up based on high probability, but right now I have struggled to SCRATCH OUT A LIVING BASED ON MY FUNDAMENTALS.

Yes, I have made and continue to add pips to my annual tally. However, my average position sizes are smaller to compensate for the market conditions. The confidence to hit trades at a full position size simply is NOT there.

With the last three months; June +1,714, July +1,318 and August +825, totaling +3857, I should NOT complain as I am adding pips, but it is a struggle at the moment.

I have a separate objective from September 1st thru December 31st, 2020 of +3,940 pips and so far, this month I have hit +892 pips. I am grateful, do NOT get me wrong and, after 10 years of trading I no longer suffer from FOMO (Fear of missing out).

So, to summarize so far, I am generating pips, but, at a reduced trade size and, I am still adding $$$$ to my brokers; what’s the major issue?

I know, as a Forex trader, you have to acknowledge the plain and simple fact that as a trader you can only trade what you have before you. I get this, I understand but FX trading has changed dramatically following the Covid-19 pandemic, we continue to trade in a news headline driven rigged marketplace, with Central Banks controlling all the pieces of the jigsaw acting as the ultimate backstop to the Financial Markets.

Central Bank policies in the G10 are uber dovish, uber supportive and frankly it appears that we will be at, or close to, zero interest rates for an awfully long time.

Trading FX is basically very simple... “You BUY Dips and You SELL Rips”. It is NOT complicated but right now nothing is lining up that meets with my conditions to enter either short or long. My BIAS at the moment is market contrarian and that is the issue; FUNDAMENTALLY I just cannot, despite Central Bank activity accept that the current equity markets are overbought and that the FED in particular, has created a bubble.

The markets are clear, they are either pure RISK ON or RISK OFF and for me right now it is GOLD that is leading sentiment. I have built several RISK OFF positions that I am holding and tactically adding to when the opportunity arrives. I am being patient, I am sitting and waiting. Every now and then I get a move in my favour and I cash in and then re-add once more. My overall RISK does not move too much and up to know I am within my TRADE PLAN guidelines.

When you look at the U.S. equity markets, the DOW30, S&P and NASDAQ are being driven higher basically on the back of just a few stocks: APPLE, FACEBOOK, ALPHABET (GOOGLE), NETFLIX, MICROSOFT and TESLA. The latter with a market valuation greater than Toyota, VW Group, PSA and Hyundai combined who together ship about 3-3.5 million cars a year... Tesla ships 315,000. Go figure that one out.

For my trading set ups, this has for my shorter-term trades, “RED LIGHTS”, “RED FLAGS” and “DO NOT BE A BLOODY IDIOT” visuals and audios ringing in my ears....

Therefore, I am only really trading based on longer-term set ups. taking between 3-12 month timeframes into my plans.

So, I am SCRATCHING AROUND.

What am I doing day to day?

I am only back from vacation a week, so I am in no way getting frustrated.

If you are a scalper trader or at max a 2-3 hour trader... good for you, enjoy it!

For me, I have often written in this blog “PLAN YOUR TRADES & TRADE YOUR PLAN”, for me this market just typifies this statement.

Exercise patience, get your levels, check them and set your limit orders and then wait. Trading is boring. A huge amount of time is spent looking at charts and one could call this unproductive. Open a demo account try out a new strategy... test.... rinse and repeat... refine... validate and if you believe it's a success implement.

To finish on a very positive note; my mindset remains 100% focused but, my activity does NOT reflect this and until I can see a change of conditions within which to trade, I will remain SCRATCHING AROUND waiting patiently to strike.

Do NOT get suckered in.

We trade to win, not to provide brokers with easy money. Trading longevity via patience, waiting for your trades to come to you is the key, NOT GAMBLING. If you want to gamble put on your mask and book a trip to Las Vegas!

2. THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM:

2.1: FX PREMIUM MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:

2.2: PERFORMANCE COMPARISON vs “DOUBLE -UP” PROMOTION:

Hand in hand with my DOUBLE -UP EXTRA” promotion, which expires on 13th September 2020 at 2359 New York Time, I provided a “PIP PROJECTION spreadsheet (see section 2.3) to measure my performance into the year end. I did this as I had already achieved my 2020 overall “Pip” objectives for 2020 before the “DOUBLE UP” promotion was launched.

Here is the performance so far, based on September 1st, 2020 thru December 31st, 2020.

2.3: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:

The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is my subscriber based FX support option, which offers, subscribers’ full access to my suggested trade set-ups and my market commentaries.

If you go to my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com you will see more information about the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.

Lots of information about the way I do things, plus, previous reports about my trades, my trade styles and my trade projections for the year are located on my home page by selecting the appropriate tab located at the top of my home page.

There are 4 options for subscribing: -

Monthly revolving following a 10 day for $10 trial = CAD$200.00 per month
10 weeks (c.3 months) = CAD$450.00The entry level is with a 3 month’s (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -

CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)

20 weeks (c.6 months) = CAD$750.00
40 weeks (c.12 months) = CAD$1,250.00

Further information about how to subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is also located at the top of my welcome page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “SUBSCRIBE” tab.

3. CLOSING THOUGHTS:

Finally, as usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @weeklyfxpremium
https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
BLOG VERSION: #380 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 13th September 2020