Over the past two weekends I have written blogs and then just prior to proofreading etc., I have changed the topic and re-written the DRIVE THRU at for me is the 11th hour and 59 seconds.
This obviously causes time pressure for me, but at the same time it also highlights to me the simple fact that beneath all the news driven COVID-19, and FINANCIAL STIMULUS headlines FUNDAMENTALS still count for something.
So, perhaps coming soon to this page, should any of these see the light of day get ready for: -
TRUMP: A BIG MOUTH, A BULLY AND ABSOLUTELY NOTHING MORE
RECESSION DEPRESSION... PO-TAY-TO - PO-THA-TO
NEWS DRIVEN LAST MAN STANDING MARKETS
SENTIMENT SHIFTING IN BREXIT NEGOTIATIONS
However, this week it just makes sense to be 100% totally topical with POSTURING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POND.
1. THE SOAPBOX:
POSTURING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE POND
I had a PEER GROUP Zoom meeting during the week, and as usual it was a real mixed bag of views, comments and trade ideas looking ahead beyond the November 3rd election. In last weekends ZOOM meetings I stated that I was now in line with last weekends DRIVE THRU blog title, ready for a LOCKDOWN vis-à-vis adding new FX trade set ups.
The elephant in the room right now, and after having listened to several sound-bytes from the U.S. election Town Hall TV programs last Thursday the elephant has not moved and that is FISCAL STIMULUS. This is the one news item that potentially has the ability to move the markets. Having said that, how many times can you hear BLOOMBERG, CNBC or FOX BUSINESS say that the markets are moving higher on the back of news about the FISCAL STIMULUS without laughing loudly?
MNUCHIN and PELOSI are allegedly wide apart on what should and shouldn’t be included in the STIMULUS PACKAGE. This may emanate from TRUMPS view that he is the President of the RED States of America and that those controlled by Democrat Governors i.e. BLUE states warrant no stimulus in his eyes as they are money wasters (I suppose it takes one to know one).
It is only the people of America who suffer because of this action, the very people TRUMP wants to vote for him. This just beggar’s belief.
The U.S. economy is in a recession, there is mass unemployment in excess of 12 million, both Corporate and Retail rents are about 80% unpaid since April this year and the U.S. debt is just spiraling out of control. The U.S. is NOT being led at the moment, it all about the election.
Last Friday, we saw Retail Sales beat 0.7% expect versus 1.9% achieved and printed.
Deep down both the Republicans and Democrats want to do something but we have politics in play. As we have seen since TRUMP was elected in 2016, he had divided rather unite and this approach only serves to create a partisan political approach in Washington.
So, right now we have STIMULUS POSTERING. Both sides of the negotiations release media statements to cover their asses and appeal to their respective bases. The big question from the outside is, does the U.S. congress actually want a deal?
On the other side of the pond...
Wednesday14th / Thursday 15th October were the initial dates in the sand placed by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to have a BREXIT deal completed with the EUROPEAN UNION.
For months negotiating teams led by SIR DAVID FROST (UK) and Michel Barnier (EU) have allegedly between them been hammering out the nitty gritty of a deal. The stumbling blocks stated at the outset of talks, being State Aid and Fisheries remain the stumbling blocks now as talks have broken down.
Fishing rights 0.1% GDP UK and less in the EU, which has so many of the EU27 member countries without any fishing fleets at all.
Why such an issue?
Sovereignty is massive for the UK. That was one of the main factors in the June 2016 vote... regain control... sovereignty.
Last Friday, UK leader Boris Johnson announced that the UK population should prepare for an Australian style BREXIT, which equates to WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules only.
Johnson went on to say that despite the close relationship between the UK and EU being inside the EU, the EU will not even agree to a CANADA style trade deal which the EU and CANADA share.
As I have stated since 2016, the EU will not make it easy for the UK to leave because of a potential contagion effect throughout the remaining EU27.
On Johnson’s comments, the cable dropped to 1.2860 recovered back above 1.2900, but it is rangebound 1.2860 to 1.3000. The EU responded to Johnson’s comments by saying they will be in the UK to carry on negotiations this coming week. They ignored the Australian style deal comments completely.
Johnson is far more intelligent than people give him credit for. He has basically said to the EU, don’t come to speak unless you are prepared to negotiate seriously. He has said the negotiations are off.
This is POSTURING once again. He is encouraging another telephone conversation with the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to literally lay it out once and for all.
It is well documented that the EU will talk and talk until the last moment before “A rabbit is pulled out of the hat”. Johnson does NOT want this; he wants a break on January 1st, 2021.
Reading some of the EU communications at the outset Barnier and his team said that they would require 2/3 years to get a deal signed off. Johnson gave him 2020. The Eu are now saying a deal can be formalized between now and the year end, it is all POSTURING.
Dare I use the phrase “The Art of the DEAL”
What does all this POSTURING mean when looking at trading?
The obvious answer and no surprise is that we will be range trading until we get definitive news. The ranges could be wide, especially with GBP pairs and the USD is getting to terms with a potential BIDEN victory over TRUMP if the opinion polls are to be believed, so that means range trading as well.
Like I said last week FX LOCKDOWN
2. SUBSCRIBE TO THE DRIVE THRU “ZOOM”:
It’s 100% FREE.
If you subscribe to this FREE NEWSLETTER, which is posted 40 times a year, not only will you receive this blogpost sent directly to your inbox, you will also receive a link to view THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM.
THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM takes a 30-45 minute look each week at upcoming news events, plus a chart analysis review of the DXY and the USD Major pairs.
In addition, you will also receive a FREE COPY of my E BOOK titled: -
“Forex Trading My Way... It Could Also Work For You”
3. THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM:
3.1: FX PREMIUM MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
3.2: PERFORMANCE COMPARISON vs “DOUBLE -UP” PROMOTION:
The “DOUBLE UP” promotion has ended but for those who subscribed during the promotional period, here is the performance update against the September 1st thru December 31st target of +3,940 pips.
3.3: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:
The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is my subscriber based FX support option, which offers, subscribers’ full access to my suggested trade set-ups and my market commentaries.
If you go to my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com you will see more information about the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
Lots of information about the way I do things, plus, previous reports about my trades, my trade styles and my trade projections for the year are located on my home page by selecting the appropriate tab located at the top of my home page.
There are 4 options for subscribing: -
- Monthly revolving subscription following a 10 day for $10 trial then a monthly CAD$200.00 per month.
- 10 weeks (c.3 months) = CAD$450.00The entry level is with a 3 month’s (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
- 20 weeks (c.6 months) = CAD$750.00
- 40 weeks (c.12 months) = CAD$1,250.00
Further information about how to subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is also located at the top of my welcome page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “SUBSCRIBE” tab.
4. CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Firstly, before finally...
My “YouTube” channel THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU now has a library of the older DRIVE THRU ZOOM presentations. Check it out and maybe subscribe. My intention is to post other “ZOOMS” there from time to time related to FX Trading.
Why not get positioned at the front of the line!
Finally, as usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #385 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 18th October 2020