It only seems like yesterday that I was writing, I am back from my summer break and in front of my screens again. I remember my father telling me, when you get older you will feel that time goes by much faster than when you are at a younger age.
The speed of life parked to one side; here we are nonetheless at the beginning of October reviewing the September performance.
So, let’s get straight in at the top line; +4,022 net pips gained, the second highest pip total in 2020 behind March which was an incredible +6,166 pips.
What has me over the moon is that the all round performance was really good moving in the right direction after a couple of so-so months. I will go into greater detail on this point later in the blog under section 1.4.
In August, I launched my Summer promotion called “DOUBLE UP – EXTRA”, which ran for most of August thru early September 2020. As you may well know, at the beginning of August I was already ahead of my 2020 objective of +16,250 net pips, the total at the beginning of August was +16,925 pips.
I wanted to show any new subscribers on the back of the DOUBLE -UP promotion that I was still hungry for pips and to that end, I provided a PIP PROJECTION of +3,940 pips to run from September 1st thru December 31st 2020 (see below)
Below is the summary of the September 2020 performance split by trade style, which shows a total of +4,022 net pips gained. The specific trades that generated this return is shown later in this blog in section 1.2.
Looking back at September, I think that it would be fair to say that my most used word last month when describing trading FX was “Patience”.
As we all know now, the markets including the FX market is rigged. The FED under Jerome Powell has pushed investors, or institutions with investors cash to only the one option that delivers yield... equities, at the same time in the full knowledge that as a result of FED policy this would result in USD weakness. The USD was sacrificed in favour of stocks and shares. Having said that, this DOES NOT mean that the USD would sell-off and never look back.
To simplify matters, there are several pieces in the jigsaw that together make up a market, to name a few off the tip of my tongue; Equity Valuations, Buyers and Sellers, Economic Data, Employment Data, Technical Price Levels, Inter-Market Correlations, Fundamental News, Foreign Investment levels and general Market Volumes and Liquidity. There are more but these few will highlight the point that I want to make and that is despite what happens in the world, a market should always offer two-way interaction between buyers and sellers.
There is no doubt that the USD has been under tremendous selling pressure over recent months BUT, there are times that buyers take the upper hand and control. Last month we had two multi-day occasions when that happened, and I was there to capitalize. I did nothing more than “PLAN MY TRADE and TRADE MY PLAN” There is NO secret sauce. It was all about exercising patience and waiting for the market to come to me.
Now, my TRADING STYLE is NOT suitable for all traders. I am a POSITION TRADER; my stops are at monthly Average True Ranges for the most part and a little more with some trades based off my longer-term Fundamental views. The vast majority of my trades are smaller position size allowing me greater flexibility with stops to enable a wider RISK TOLERANCE on trades.
Looking more closely at the markets themselves, whilst they remain almost 100% news driven based on the pandemic, with the occasional CHINA flavour added in, the overriding feature from my perspective regarding the FX market was that we remained essentially rangebound. What did become apparent was how trading GOLD became a real RISK ON / RISK OFF play, gone are the days of a hedge against inflation (whatever that is), or a flight to safety trade with GOLD.
I listened in to several live webinars on FX and I have learned that Precious Metals, OIL and trading market indices are much more widely traded now by FX traders than say 12 months ago. I can only put that down to rangebound bound markets and cynically the desire of brokers to encourage their clients to spend on a wider spectrum.
Fundamentally, as we headed out of the Summer into the Fall with the U.S. Presidential election on the horizon, opinion polls gathered greater momentum as the former vice President JOE BIDEN took an early lead placing pressure on the incumbent, now Covid-19 diseased TRUMP. My list of market fundamentals, which, were largely ignored at the outset of September started to gain traction as the month developed. However, to be frank the FX market remained largely headline driven on the pandemic and at times CHINA news would raise its profile.
Nevertheless, belief, commitment along with my fundamental’s thoughts, views and ideas, combined with, patience and control all contributed to a great month.
The rangebound environment in FX was a challenge and I believe that this will continue through to the year end. This limited the number of trades I could take that fitted inside my trade plan guidelines. As a trader, market conditions made me focus more on specific pairs and wait for prices to come to me. One can argue this is 100% what trading is and honestly, I would NOT disagree with that view.
Whilst this blog looks backwards, changing timelines and looking forward for just one moment; I see BREXIT, COVID-19, ECONOMIC STIMULUS and CHINA news dominating along with the TRUMP coronavirus infection and the U.S. Presidential Election.
The is a huge chunk of uncertainty out there and I expect a bit of volatility in October thru November.
1. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM AUGUST 2020 PERFORMANCE:
1.1: THE PERFORMANCE STATSISTICS:
1.2: THE TRADES:
1.3: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
1.4: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
- +4,022 net pips were highly satisfying from a number of viewpoints, not just the topline number which was my second-best pip monthly tally this year.Every trade style recorded positive pips and the SWING trade style which had been a struggle for me with a negative performance over the past four months, finally produced a positive monthly outcome.
- My RISK OFF trades were very profitable last month. My trades specifically with USD/MXN, EUR/AUD, USD/CAD and EUR/CAD all contributed nicely to my totals. These trades were spread mainly through MOMENTUM and FUNDAMENTAL trade styles.
- The “pip” per trade statistics were really good.For the month 82.08 pips per completed trade (4,022 / 49 trades).
My 2020 target is 50.00 pips per completed trade. Whilst I think that this will be tough to achieve, it will make the final three months of the year very interesting.
- In the month there were 49 completed trades.96% of my trade positive and just 4% negative trades.
2. THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
2.1: YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE SUMMARY:
2.2: YEAR TO DATE FX PREMIUM PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN:
Annual pip totals are broken down by TRADE STYLES.
MOMENTUM = 3 pips – 2020 Target = 1,080 pips = 0.28% so far.
SWING = 319 pips - 2020 Target = 4,320 pips = 7.38% so far.
FUNDAMENTAL = 2,269 pips – 2020 Target = 2,700 pips = 84.04% so far.
BREXIT = 8,622 pips - 2020 Target = 3,200 pips = 269% achieved.
INVESTOR = 10,559 pips - 2020 Target = 3,960 pips = 267% achieved..
TOTAL pips 2020 year to date = 21,772 pips
Annual “Pip Target” = 15,260 pips
% achieved = 143% of annual target achieved so far.
Just to note in comparison to 2019.
At this stage end of September 2019 pips total = 13,346 pips. I am 8,426 pips ahead of my September 2019 performance.
2.3: MY KEY TAKEAWAYS ON THE YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE:
- Obviously, the topline number of +21,772 pips loos impressive based upon the annual objective for 2020 of +15,260 pips (143% of annual objective).
- Average pips per completed trade = 44.71 up from 40.53 last month. The objective is 50.00 which remains challenging looking ahead.
- Ratios of Positive to Negative Trades = 78% / 22% just marginally below my objective.
- Looking from a subscriber’s perspective.The potential net incomes are very pleasing from my perspective.
Regardless of whether you trade MICRO, MINI or STANDARD lots based upon my approach of single-lot trading, you could now be well in “net” profit after payingsubscription and trading fees this year.
MICRO LOT traders gross income this year = USD$2,177.20, less costs to trade USD$48.70 (487 trades) and 12 months FX PREMIUM subscription of USD$975.00 =net income after costs of USD$1,153.50.
MINI LOT traders gross income this year = USD$21,772, less costs to trade USD$487.00 (487 trades) and 12 months FX PREMIUM subscription of USD$975.00 =net income after costs of USD$20,310.00.
STANDARD LOT traders gross income this year = USD$217,720 less costs to trade USD$4,870.00 (487 trades) and 12 months FX PREMIUM subscription of USD$975.00 = net income after costs of USD$211,875.00.
Whatever way you dice and chop up the numbers this is a great performance.
I really cannot complain too much, 9 months of the year completed, and I have blasted through my annual target on pips.
3. THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM:
During mu Summer break earlier this year, I decided to make one or two distribution changes to my delivery of my market supporting material.
I decided to start THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM, which would replace about 50% of the content previously contained in written format inside this blog. I decided to do this “With a Twist”, by only distributing THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM to subscribers of this blog.
Below, I list the content comparisons of both ZOOM meetings.
As already mentioned, to receive THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM you must be a subscriber to this blog. To do this visit my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com click on the subscribe TAB at the top of my landing page.
For those of you who pick up the COFFEE SHOP / CHIRINGUITO version of this blog if you want THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM, you will need to subscribe to this blog as obviously, only the shortened written version will be produced and that version in the future will represent the COFFEE SHOP / CHIRINGUITO version from next weekend.
4. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:
Basically, my website landing page has all the information that You would need to make a qualified decision about whether or not the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM would be a good fit for you or not. Below I have a snapshot of some data that you may find useful.
3.1: SUBSCRIPTION OPTIONS:
NOTE: THE SUBSCRIBER SUMMER PROMOTION below in section 1.7.
SILVER: 3 months (10 weeks) = CAD450.00
GOLD: 6 months (20 weeks) = CAD$750.00
PLATINUM: 12 months (40 weeks) = CAD$1,250.00
(Platinum renewal = CAD$1,000.00)
If you are looking to support your 2020 trading activities, why not consider a 3 month (10 week) subscription to get you up and running, who knows you may decide to extend your subscription!
It is a low cost way to maybe “KICK START” 2020; a 3 months (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
Go to my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com for more details of all the subscription options under the “SUBSCRIBE TAB.
To subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM, you will require a valid credit card.
3.2: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – BENEFITS OF SUBSCRIBING:
3.3: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - THE TRADING HISTORY:
5: MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #383 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 4th October 2020