What a week. I have not watched as much TV in a long time. I now know what it means when people are referred to as TV junkies. I traded very little and I have a couple of positions I may have to let go of, so all in all a very different week from the usual.
When I sit back, the U.S. vote from my perspective was clear cut. Joe Biden would have had to have shot one of my dogs in order for me not to vote for him. The TRUMP nonsense which persists even now is fueled by the fact the elders in the Republican Party continue to enable the TRUMP behavior. I expected the likes of Mitch McConnell, Lyndsey Graham, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Nikki Hailey and Mitt Romney to step out and be acceptant of the numbers before them... be gracious in defeat. Dream on Scott; they all line up behind TRUMPS accusations of baseless, fact less claims of voter and counting corruptions.
Very sad days for the U.S. indeed. In a 15-minute press briefing TRUMP made a series of unsubstantiated claims about why he was losing both the popular vote and the Electoral College count.
So, before going any further; for full disclosure I am writing this blog and it is 7AM AST on Saturday November 7th 2020, and in a move ahead of ABC, NBC, CBC and CNN I am calling the election held on November 3rd2020 in favour of JOE BIDEN.
Back on point...
Billy Big Bollox in the White House must by now have run out of spaghetti to throw at the Oval Office walls and his advisors should be telling him that very little has stuck. In fact, the TRUMP tweet “BIG LEGAL WIN IN PENNSYLVANIA!”, which he posted last Wednesday / Thursday was about the Republican counting observers being able to stand 6 feet away from counters instead of 10 feet. Glaze my nipples and call me Rita... that was huge... just a mega win.
TRUMP simply cannot understand or come to terms with the facts of how he lost, and frankly I can to some point apply logic to this. Here are by bullet points some of my takeaways from the past few days: -
- If the Democrats were corrupt as TRUMP and his puppets claim. Why didn’t they take the Senate?
- TRUMPS popular vote increased in so many places. To lose with over 70 million votes is an incredible achievement.
- Republican Senators kept their seats on the back of TRUMP, he made it possible and to be honest he did it single-handed. TRUMP did great work. He lied continually of course when campaigning, but his base did not care.
- TRUMP failed on Covid-19. TRUMP tried so many times to put lipstick on this PIG, BUT it’s still a PIG and this TRUMP failed to lead on, in fact in my opinion, he has blood on his hands on this issue.
- TRUMP also failed because better educated people finally held up their hands and said “No More” to lies and deceit. He won more votes BUT failed to hold onto enough who saw a different path forward.
- TRUMPs basic approach is “win” at all costs. The electorate were fearful, they required more. The popular vote difference is about 4 million votes, which on about a turnout of 145 million is not huge.
- The U.S. has massive problems ahead. Really big problems. Main Street issues not the fantasy world of Wall Street.
TRUMP increased his vote; he guided the Republican party to “possibly” retain control of the Senate. The “BLUE WAVE” did not happen as predicted with the gusto predicted. TRUMP converted more voters. The only failure to move forward was his own at the end of the day. This could explain why to a large extent the “party” has not divided ranks yet.... but they will as they are self-serving politicians.
TRUMP lost fair and square on one huge issue... Covid-19.
240,000 deaths, and daily caseloads of 125,000 infected Americans shows a dereliction of duty by TRUMP. He took an oath to protect.... he failed. In my opinion this is why he lost, and he just cannot come to terms with this. His advisors are puppets they can’t or won’t tell him.
Yes; there are other issues such as racism, which is huge. Inciting civil unrest was not a vote winner and JOE BIDEN has a huge job on his hands. But I believe Covid-19 was the biggest vote loser for TRUMP.
Moving on a bit...
Since the vote count, TRUMP has continued to incite violence through comments about Atlanta and Detroit vote counting irregularities. TRUMP Jnr tweeted “There will be War over this election” and finally, Steve Bannon (ex. TRUMP Strategist) called for the beheading of Anthony Fauci (Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) and Christopher Wray (FBI Director).
These comments are just a living disgrace and anyone, any human being should be outraged by them regardless of political persuasion, in fact, regardless of anything.
- BYE BYE TRUMP...
My final questions on TRUMP are: -
- Will he telephone JOE BIDEN and concede?
- Will he provide a smooth transition of power?
- Will the National Guard be required to remove him from the White House?
- Will we find out if TRUMP had Coronavirus and when were the test dates?
- When will the Oval Office 70inch TV’s on stands be going up on eBay?
1. THE SOAPBOX:
BIDEN HAS THE KEYS TO THE DOOR...
WHAT ABOUT THE USD MOVING FORWARD?
So, trying my best to move on from the U.S. Presidential election, all-consuming as it has been, beyond the BIDEN win there are a huge amount of issues for him to tackle very quickly.
- FISCAL STIMULUS
- COVID-19 PANDEMIC
- UNEMPLOYMENT (Over 20+ million Americans)
There are others but lets just stick with these three.
How does the USD respond?
The school of thought is that the USD will just continue to weaken. The FED is out of bullets, what further measures can it take? More asset purchases, negative interest rates... maybe just buy stocks on Wall Street! FED policy is to sacrifice the USD and it is often said never fight the FED, in fact given the FED can print money why would you fight the FED?
I think a lot depends on the size of the STIMULUS BILL. It looks like we may not see one of any substance until February 2021. Between now and then we have 70+ days of TRUMP and no doubt continued shenanigans from him.
Anthony Fauci will see greater prominence from a BIDEN administration and science will be believed and science beliefs acted upon. Let’s face facts the TRUMP approach of “It’s going away, we are rounding a corner, a beautiful corner; it will just disappear” is nothing short of complete and utter bullshit. Over 100,000 infected cases per day is now the norm. When deaths hit 250,000 and head towards 300,000 notice will be more poignant.
Then there is unemployment, once a really good economic success story. However, following the pandemic it has been decimated and despite all the SPIN from TRUMP, KUDLOW and MNUCHIN, the jobs initially lost are not back and frankly given certain industries such as travel and leisure, hospitality and certain aspects of retail, the jobs are simply not coming back. The current unemployment data is masked by stimulus and the true knowledge of how many who are employed but NOT employed because of stimulus makes the current data skewed lower to show success rather than the truth.
All of this will pull and push the USD.
America is a consumer society, based on feel good factors at the core. The feel-good factors or rather the emotional state and the balance, the perception of reality versus perception of the population is crucial moving forward.
Changes under BIDEN will be more than subtle. Initially he will / should paint an accurate picture based on facts rather than SPINNNED bollocks. With this approach, even with continued FED policy the USD will be pushed and pulled higher and lower, remember NOTHING just moves in a straight-line. However, I have had a shift in my medium-term views.
I now see a need for even greater U.S. STIMULUS to combat the three areas (above) for BIDEN to grasp hold of as soon as possible. I believe that he will push for infrastructure spending and a grand scheme to combat both STIMULUS and UNEMPLOYMENT at the same time. This will be USD negative, without doubt.
That said, COVID-19 offers up a lot more hoops to jump through and hurdles to jump over for BIDEN. Given he is not inaugurated until late January 2021, we could have U.S. deaths over 350,000 by that date based upon the existing parameters. We also know from experiences around the world to seize control of the virus spreading and contain its path of infection requires action that American’s just won’t tolerate, at least at the moment.
The question is at what number will it be treated seriously? 500,000 deaths, 1 million deaths, who knows? As we know via TRUMP, America is gripped by conspiracy theories. BIDEN’s pandemic response is much harder than providing fiscal stimulus. This will be his greatest challenge.
Trying to establish my timeline for these thoughts and views kicking in is somewhat difficult given the perception versus reality in the U.S., I need to see the actual BIDEN response to confirm my timeline. What I do know is he is duty bound to address these issues as a priority when he is in the Oval Office.
My timeline for now is below: -
- Now thru end of January 2021:No expectations of anything meaningful.
TRUMP shenanigans to continue.
A haphazard ineffective transfer of power to BIDEN.
- February, March, April 2021:Stimulus Package (1) announced, aimed at initially supporting Businesses and Employees who are at greatest risk (e.g. Travel, Hospitality, Leisure).
Pandemic Task Force re-established
Covid-19 Tzar appointed to manage and coordinate nationwide response on behalf of the President reporting directly to the President.
Statewide support provided to give both financial and PPE supply support.
A State by state chain of command structure set in place
Regular communication updates of both successes and failures and why for both on the pandemic policy approach.Hopefully a vaccine or suppressant enough to hold the Covid-19 symptoms at bay. A clear communication on how long it will take to produce sufficient doses for the U.S.
Probably a two-year plan with the order of distribution announced.
- April, May and June 2021:Stimulus Package (2) aimed at infrastructure and getting people back to work, with hopefully Covid-19 now under control and hopefully in the rearview mirror.
A 2021 plan on the pandemic issuing what measures are required to crush it through 2021.
I am just a simple FX trader.
How do I trade the USD from now through to June 30th, 2021?
Two months ago, I was more USD bullish than bearish as mentioned a little earlier, I have switched my position a little.
My easy answer would be, do not trade the USD majors as I can see walls being built to prevent the directional trading, we all want to see being in place.
Now thru BIDEN taking the reins: USD negative
February thru April 2020: USD sideways volatility despite stimulus – avoid USD
May thru end 2021: USD negative
You can still trade the USD but for longer-term position trades I think it will be a little tricky in H1 2021. I have ideas but I may trade in one direction for a few months and then reverse.
This is what makes FX so interesting.
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Why not get positioned at the front of the line!
Finally, as usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #388 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 8th November 2020