Another week completed on the countdown to the end of the year. Actually, for full disclosure originally (before proof reading), I wrote the end of the world... not sure where that came from at all!
Nevertheless, onwards and upwards.
I had hoped last week to claw back a good chunk of the lost pips from trading a couple of weeks ago, sadly, that did not happen. Whilst, I have clawed a few hundred pips back the 1,000+ that I had hoped for just wasn’t there for me. As a trader you always tend to second guess what you traded or did not trade, hindsight is a wonderful thing. However, last week, the trades for my style were just NOT there. So, instead of trading I was mostly prepping for 2021 and reading and watching videos on Personal Development, which as you know I find incredibly useful when it comes to TRADING PSYCHOLOGY.
The TRUMP shenanigans continued; the twisted / spin event of the week was the Rudy Giuliani press briefing that took place last Thursday. It opened my eyes to just how divided and twisted America is, and “CALL ME JOE” has a real problem to fix, in fact I doubt that anyone can fix the divisive state that exists in the U.S.
- RED STATE / BLUE STATE
- WHITE / BLACK, HISPANIC or BROWN,
- REPUBLICAN / DEMOCRAT
- DEATH RATES & HOSPITALISATION RE COVID-19 / HOAX
- PANDEMIC CURE VIA VACCINE / HOAX
- WALL STREET / MAIN STREET
- ACTUAL REAL NEWS / CONSPIRACY THEORIES
- ELECTION, BALLOTS & VOTER CURRUPTION / LEGAL COUNTS
- AMERICA IS A RASCIST, DIVIDED ON MULTI-LEVELS, IN DENIAL COUNTRY
Just my own views obviously, but there is so much wrong with the U.S. at base level, I just cannot see how JOE BIDEN can fix this.
The last time I checked; he could not...
- TURN WATER INTO WINE
- WALK ON WATER
- CAST NETS ON LAKES AND FILL THEM FULL OF FISH
- RAISE PEOPLE FROM THE DEAD
This will be an interesting Presidency to follow, assuming that he can actually get into the White House. Mark my words, my tongue in cheek comment from a few weeks ago about the Pentagon Generals bringing in troops and hummers to remove TRUMP could still happen.
There is a school of thought especially following Giuliani’s Press Briefing that TRUMP is attempting nothing short of a “Coup”. This thought is further exacerbated by the fact he brought lawmakers from Michigan and Pennsylvania to the White House in an attempt to get them to overturn the popular vote. You could just NOT make this stuff up.
What this has highlighted to me, but I am just an outsider looking in, is that the current U.S. system has holes in it like a block of Swiss Cheese that have been fully exploited by TRUMP.
- NO TAX RECORDS EVER DISCLOSED
- NO SMOOTH TRANSFER OF POWER
- NO TRANSITION TIMETABLE DEADLINES
- NO SECURITY BRIEFINGS
The above are factors, and there will be more, for those more learned than I, that all prior Presidents except TRUMP have adhered to in the past. It is like a gentleman’s agreement of honour and openness that in all fairness represents the U.S. democratic system in more places than not. It has just been abused on the worlds stage for all to see and observe the shenanigans.
I should point out; TRUMP is within the current law, however, the above bullet points plus a few more need to be addressed by congress and have to be written into law for the future. As I wrote last week it has gone from DEMOCRACY TO LAUGHINGSTOCK.
It is all playing out live around the world on CNN. It is the most bizarre reality show ever transmitted; you just can NOT write this stuff.
1. THE SOAPBOX:
BREXIT: THE END IS NIGH.... OR IS IT?
There is a melancholy mood hanging above my desk as I write this SOAPBOX POST... it’s the end of a 4-year journey, the end of my one of my “go to” topics if I am struggling with what to write about.
Whilst there are no tears in my eyes and I am NOT filling up with emotion, BUT is my BREXIT trade success formula over the past few years coming to an end?
FFS... I hope not... Good Lord that is a bit of pressure for 2021. This year so far, and we have the climax, the finale in front of us (maybe), I have added over +9,900 pips from BREXIT TRADES. Mixed in with POSITION TRADES in 2019, there were about +7,500 pips of BREXIT TRADES, that is almost +17,500 pips from one trade style in two years (so far) it's a big gap to fill for 2021.... yikes! It's a good job that I am focused for 2021.
Getting back on the point....
There are rumours, and I have bought into them as well, that A BREXIT DEAL is imminent between the EU and the UK.
I am loaded up with potential trades already... GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/CHF, GBP/CAD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD. The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers are awash with my ideas and levels...
So; BREXIT: THE END IS NIGH.... OR IS IT?
I think it is. The resignations of LEE CAIN and DOMINIC CUMMINGS from the BORIS JOHNSON fan club are not acts of insanity related to a COVID-19 lockdown. Dig deep, well, actually, just scratch the surface a little. Timing is everything. BORIS JOHNSON is a cute whore; he sees the writing on the wall vis-à-vis the U.S. and what the position will be like for the UK two or three years from now.
A trade deal with Canada, Australia and New Zealand, Japan and maybe an invite to the TPP is in the offing together with a U.S. deal in the near future provided BORIS can plamorse “CALL ME JOE’S” IRISH roots.
Don’t forget JOHNSON is a politician... they crave power and for him its another term in office, which triggers in May 2024.
The EU / UK BREXIT deal is very basic really. It has been dressed up to look complicated, why wouldn’t it?
Basically, BREXIT in a nutshell from the UK BREXIT voter perspective was to: -
- CONTROL IMMIGRATION
- GIVE US OUR SOVEREIGNTY BACK
- STOP THE “DESK SUCKING, PEN PUSHING, JOTTER BLOTTERS” in BRUSSELS TELLING US WHAT TO DO
- LET US MAKE UP OUR OWN LAWS TO WORK WITH
TRADE...was the basis of the EUROPEAN COMMUNITY, THE COMMON MARKET set up by FRANCE & GERMANY all those years ago. Everything that has come along has been fucked up, twisted and wrapped up in so much bureaucracy nothing will ever fix it.
The FREE TRADE AREA is the cornerstone of the EUROPEAN UNION. Of all things it's the easiest to understand and the hardest one for the EU to give up because if they did allow non-EU members to have it... probably many more of the EU27 countries would leave like the UK.
Obviously, the UK wants FREE TRADE, and the EU does NOT want to give it up because of a potential CONTAGION EFFECT.
Actually, not quite....
FISHING RIGHTS is the JOKER in the pack.
Many EU countries are landlocked and have no fishery business and therefore could not give a crap about fishing BUT mainly FRANCE and SPAIN fish in the UK waters and would be denied access on a UK BREXIT deal.
From a GDP perspective fishing accounts for feck all in the UK and FRENCH economies BUT from a sovereign perspective its up there with RULE BRITTANIA and a huge vote winner!
We all eat fish.... right.
If you are living in the UK, is it not better to eat fish caught by UK fisherman from the UK in UK waters?
Then we have tariffs on German Cars... AUDI, VW, PORCHE, BMW, MERCEDES etc. This is giving Angela Merkel sleepless nights, never mind the other German exports / imports into the UK.
French wine, Spanish wine, Italian wine and Port from Portugal all have big markets in the UK. The UK the home of “Binge” drinking... it's a big market all year round, not just a Friday or Saturday night once or twice a year.
A deal will be struck to prevent borders being clogged with trucks waiting on paperwork, there will be examinations of trucks for stowaways like now, but technology will play a huge part. The only issue is that it needs a system that meets with EU approval that could take years.... half the people reading this could be dead and buried or cremated prior to implementation.
In the interim there will be a fudge that will require the UK paying something into the EU coffers. Basically, possibly buying sovereignty but keeping the borders open pending technology being introduced.
Calling a “spade a spade”. A classic EU move, which is also called “KICKING THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD”.
Given the Covid-19 pandemic I think both the EU and UK will be happy to sign up something, take an annual payment and move on. By the time further talks are ready there will be new governments in place in the UK and in the EU... somebody else’s problem to fix.
Finally, for good measure a longer-term phasing out of non-UK fisherman fishing in the UK waters but with a quota applied to all catches.
So, I am expecting a FUDGE deal although I would say for all concerned this will be treated as a BREXIT DEAL even though further talks will be scheduled in 4 or 5 years after the pandemic is well gone and economies have clawed their ways back from “RECESSION – DEPRESSION” times.
Will I be right?
It will all be in the small print... as always.
I intend to make hay out of the cable moves. I see fair value for the cable circa. 1.5000. We may take a couple of attempts to break 1.4000 and 1.4380 but then we fly higher.
I see potentially huge moves with all the GBP crosses, especially the GBP/CHF and the EUR/GBP back towards 0.7500.
Of course, I could be wrong. These are just my thoughts and views.
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5. CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Firstly, before finally...
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Why not get positioned at the front of the line!
Finally, as usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #390 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 22nd November 2020