FROM DEMOCRACY TO LAUGHINGSTOCK... CHINA SEIZES THE OPPORTUNITY

As they say, that was a week.

My attention has been 99.999% focused on the U.S.

TRUMPS antics and failures continue to threaten U.S. security and frankly this handover period shows a weakness in the U.S. political process. The vacuum that is being created by TRUMP’S behavior is from the perspective of other leaders and countries looking on, showing the U.S. to be a laughingstock. It has long gone beyond what could be termed a “Democracy”.

The U.S. political system is enabling what at the very least could be called “bad” behavior. TRUMP has been enabled by White House aides and the Republican Party. Whatever credibility remained outside of America vis-à-vis U.S. leadership has largely just gone. President Elect, BIDEN has no route to move cleanly and efficiently with the transfer of power; it is being compromised.

TRUMP has lost it. I would question his sanity. TRUMP has NOT been heard of or seen for about 7 days, apart from numerous daily ranting tweets solely based on how the election was stolen from him and baseless claims of fraud and corruption. 12 lawsuits so far; ALL thrown out for having no evidence.

The electoral college votes are not yet confirmed but the counts are 99% complete and just require an official signature. Results are not going to be overturned. There was no widespread fraud or corruption. The election according to Homeland Security was the most secure U.S. election in history.

The Electoral vote count was 306 BIDEN versus 223 TRUMP. By coincidence the same margin as TRUMP defeated HILLARY CLINTON back in 2016. At that time TRUMP described it as a landslide.

This denial of reality, and the games being played are nothing short of nonsense.

Kayleigh McEnany, the White House Press Secretary is still on TV in the U.S. stating the result can be overturned. What fecking planet is she from? In what reality is she working in?

Enough is enough....

The Republican Party to the outside looks like a collection of deluded fools and idiots. This begs the question who votes for self-serving politicians voted into Capitol Hill to represent the people of America... who are they kidding? Talk about a reality gap!

Breaking a week’s silence after the election, the “over coddled” TRUMP spoke, via a Press Briefing / Conference on Friday last week.

No acknowledgement of the pandemic data. Except the numbers of cases will disappear rapidly. Another lie, a few weeks ago he claimed it was going away, the U.S. was rounding a corner... “a beautiful corner” more lies and basically let’s call it what it is a complete lack of leadership.
No concession vis-à-vis the election.
There are amendments in place for apparently everything in U.S. law. Is there not something to handle this? This is insanity, a dereliction of duty and a complete ignorance of the oath of office.

I really worry about America. How in the name of sanity can it be classed as the leader of the FREE WORLD?

All of this and nothing on the pandemic; it’s like it’s not there, it doesn’t exist: -

U.S. daily Covid-19 new cases in the U.S. have spiked above 175,000.
The U.S. death count closes in on 250,000 people.
Hospitals emergency rooms are overrun with cases.
ICU beds in many states are just NOT available.
State Governors introducing Mandatory mask wearing
State Governors introducing Curfews
State Governors introducing local lockdowns.
The TRUMP administration gave up on Covid-19 months ago
TRUMP could not lead and manage a coordinated Federal response.
TRUMP turned Covid-19 briefings into campaign rallies and stopped them when he was challenged on facts related his failures to manage.
It is now nothing less than a HUMANITARIAN DISASTER (A third world event in the USA).

Thankfully, I am not American. However, looking on from the outside and in direct reference to TRUMP’S actions since losing the election it raises an abundance of questions relating to:

His sanity
The failures and shortcomings of the U.S. Political system
The Republican Party failure to step in, manage the situation
Twitter allowing TRUMP to post tweets inciting violence
How can a President who openly undermines the democracy he took an oath to protect and defend be allowed to remain as President?

There are many more questions than those listed above but you get the point.

Laughingstock... I think so.

Those leaders (Dictators) such as PUTIN, XI JINPING and JONG-UN that TRUMP idolises must be wetting themselves observing what is nothing less than political and system implosion. To quote TRUMP himself “They’ve never seen anything like it”.

Moving on, my FX trading news: -

I covered multiple trades last week for my biggest loss of pips in one go just over 4,000 pips on trades relating to the USD/MXN and USD/CAD. I was close to my extreme tolerance levels and had given plenty of “freedom” to both pairs. I advised my subscribers last weekend via THE SUNDAY MORNING ZOOM of my plans and as soon as the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine news was released I cut the trades there and then. Overall, both positions combined gave me from inception with last weeks losses a combined net loss of (- 415 pips). That was my big new last week.

With more positive news so far this month I have been able to almost half that loss. At the end of last week, I was negative 2,260 pips but I still remain at 144% of my 2020 pip objective of 15,260 pips with my YTD total now being +22,027 pips. My overall averages, however, have been somewhat decimated. Big work required there!

We pick ourselves up and move on....

It is not about how you fall; it is about how you pick yourself up!

1. THE SOAPBOX:

FROM DEMOCRACY TO LAUGHINGSTOCK...
CHINA SEIZES THE OPPORTUNITY

I have no problem calling the U.S. a LAUGHINGSTOCK. Politicians in the U.S. are self-serving. TRUMP promoted himself on “draining the swamp”, which was another TRUMP failure.

The U.S. leaderships are so inept they miss the simple things. The U.S. media focuses on TRUMP’S conspiracy theories, which must number close to 25 now... incredible....

Back on point...

In the vacuum period following what has been described by U.S. HOMELAND SECURITY as the most SECURE U.S. election ever, we saw TRUMP claim he WON when he LOST, this is just basic math’s. The TRUMP claimed voter fraud, widespread state corruption, fake ballots were counted.... All baseless, fact less claims. BIDEN was announced President–Elect, TRUMP won’t, and to-date has yet to concede he lost the election. He will not allow any cooperation to facilitate a smooth handover of power, nor will he allow BIDEN access to Presidential security briefings, which allegedly he doesn’t read anyway.

The votes are counted.... the totals are visible to all and the results are in.

We are told TRUMP has a problem believing he lost, he thought he did enough to win and cannot accept defeat... he needs time to come to terms with defeat.

FFS....

Total Bollocks....

The System here is failing the U.S. people.

Someone needs to go into the Oval Office, tell TRUMP go grow a pair, man up and accept his responsibilities to the American people that he has by the way failed to lead through a pandemic because he did not know how.

What has the world seen and observed?

FROM DEMOCRACY TO LAUGHINGSTOCK...
CHINA SEIZES THE OPPORTUNITY

President Xi in CHINA is not stupid. He played the long game on the Americans watching, observing and waiting. Xi had plans to strike and catch the U.S. when they are just not focused.

CHINA makes regulatory changes to rule monopolistic practices in the internet area. This affected Alibaba, Ant (IPO), Tencent and WeChat. CHINA can argue they have taken the lead from the EU scrutiny of Amazon and Google which claims that both companies are breaching antitrust rules. Without doubt big tech are under the microscope.

I recall a while ago the Communist Party highlighting President Xi Jinping’s plan to centre around innovation and tech self sufficiency moving forward being the cornerstone of Chinese Policy for the foreseeable future.

So, there is a game going on in Beijing, along the lines of “the bark is worse than the bite” in the sense that the supposed deep crackdown with monopolies is not that deep and severe, as the last thing I thought the regime would want to do is undermine innovation.

The bigger CHINA news that is more important for me was HONG KONG. I have been mentioning the “slicing and dicing” via my SUNDAY MORNING ZOOM as I have traders in the area. I knew what was coming.

CHINA basically direct rule Centralist Laws from Beijing on Hong Kong.
Last week, 4 members of the Legislative Council were removed.
Hong Kong autonomy has now gone.
The signed handover agreement with the UK broken.

The removal of power to Beijing met with condemnation. Basically, the west was asleep at the wheel. CHINA quickly moved very quickly to add that any foreign government interference would be seen as interfering with CHINA domestic policies which, has nothing to do with outside governments.

What can, will Western governments do?

Jawbone and sanctions will be it, there is nothing else that can be considered. One thing I feel certain on is that BIDEN will be as tough on CHINA as TRUMP thought he was.

The Transpacific Partnership (TPP) that TRUMP pulled the U.S. out of has just expanded into the largest free trade agreement in the world (CHINA, JAPAN and AUSTRALIA and several other countries in the region), which should be ratified this weekend. It is called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), BIDEN has been left a big problem here.

TRUMP was bilateral not a multi-lateralist. He was a simple transactional President. This has limitations on many levels beyond what TRUMP was able to understand.

CHINA was NOT in the TPP but is in the RCEP, in fact many would say at the centre. This was a monumental foreign policy fuck up by TRUMP... one of the many.

What I am saying here is that CHINA saw who TRUMP was and what he stood for, played the long game and played the U.S. like a fiddle.

Because of TRUMPS basic limitations on foreign policy CHINA now controls the Asian region. It is NOT in any way reliant on the U.S. as it now growth potential via the RCEP to fully replace the American contribution to GDP.

My final point here is one of hypocrisy on behalf of TRUMP and America.

Over the TRUMP tenure he has repeatedly called CHINA out over its failure of democracy... “POT KETTLE BLACK” I fear... and once again.

FROM DEMOCRACY TO LAUGHINGSTOCK...
CHINA SEIZES THE OPPORTUNITY

How do we play this from a FX perspective?

Obviously with RCEP in place, the AUD, NZD and JPY relationships with CHINA will be more correlated than they are presently. So far, I have been happy to say the economic CHINA data good or bad is reflected in the region. This reflection will intensify moving forward.

If, as I expect BIDEN will remain tough on CHINA expect USD strength NOT weakness. Moving forward JPY, AUD and NZD cross-rates away from the USD may be the FX preference. These thoughts will develop into Q1 and Q2 2021.

To close this section, I want to copy from last week my timetable of events posted in last week’s blog without alterations or amendments. This is very much in my mind when looking around the FX market for trades set ups.

Now thru end of January 2021:No expectations of anything meaningful.
TRUMP shenanigans to continue.
A haphazard ineffective transfer of power to BIDEN.
February, March, April 2021:Stimulus Package (1) announced, aimed at initially supporting Businesses and Employees who are at greatest risk (e.g. Travel, Hospitality, Leisure).
Pandemic Task Force re-established
Covid-19 Tzar appointed to manage and coordinate nationwide response on behalf of the President reporting directly to the President.
Statewide support provided to give both financial and PPE supply support.
A State by state chain of command structure set in place
Regular communication updates of both successes and failures and why for both on the pandemic policy approach.

Hopefully a vaccine or suppressant enough to hold the Covid-19 symptoms at bay. A clear communication on how long it will take to produce sufficient doses for the U.S.
Probably a two-year plan with the order of distribution announced.
April, May and June 2021:Stimulus Package (2) aimed at infrastructure and getting people back to work, with hopefully Covid-19 now under control and hopefully in the rearview mirror.
A 2021 plan on the pandemic issuing what measures are required to crush it through 2021.

Overall be careful do NOT get too committed.

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10 weeks (c.3 months) = CAD$450.00The entry level is with a 3 month’s (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
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5. CLOSING THOUGHTS:

Firstly, before finally...

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Why not get positioned at the front of the line!

Finally, as usual…

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.

Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
BLOG VERSION: #389 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 15th November 2020