Over the years I have always found that my blog that follows the “Thanksgiving” holiday is a difficult one to choose the subject matter for. This year however is different, there is a plethora of fundamentals out there all worthy of noting in the “Soapbox”.
In order and for brevity’s sake, I will keep the bullet points minimal: -
- Thanksgiving Day an unhinged and combative press briefing
- Still claims voter fraud and “Rigged Election” but STILL no evidence
- He may not however, ever concede defeat.
- More lawsuits are being filed in battleground states
- Claims BIDEN did not get 80 million votes
- Says he will exit White House by 20th January 2021
- Threatens an airstrike against IRAN.
- Adds more sanctions against CHINA.
- CHINA PHASE1 trade deal only c.40% completed for 2020.
- Announces Vaccine distribution in U.S. next week!
(I thought that distribution for vaccines that require (-80 C) storage had still not been agreed or finalized)
- The pandemic continues to sweep through the U.S. Infections approaching 200,000 per day, Hospitalizations up at record levels and the death rate continues to climb.
- FISCAL STIMULUS in the U.S. ignored by lawmakers in the U.S. Media shows lines of cars “as far as the eye can see” in Dallas, TX lining up to receive food parcels.
- U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT: 25+ million American’s are out of a job. Another 800k were added last Thursday and there are more layoffs scheduled.
But hey listen; the U.S. economy is in great shape. The DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE passed 30,000. This was a source of great comfort to those waiting in line for food parcels, those now out of jobs with lawmakers deciding no stimulus was worth the trouble and for those catching Covid-19 or admitted to hospital tough shit on you.
TRUMP has said its ALL GOOD, so look, there is nothing to concern or worry you at all.
AWAY FROM TRUMP:
- BREXIT negotiations start again this weekend in the UK following Michel Barnier’s period of self-isolation.
- POLAND & HUNGARY have vetoed the EU 2021 Budget talks by wanting the “RULE OF LAW” condition in relation to the €1.8 trillion EU Recovery Fund.
- GLOBAL ECONOMIIC performance is masked. We have MARKET BUBBLES in most economies fueled by Central Bank policies
- GLOBAL DEBT is frankly out of control.
- MASS UNEMPLOYMENT on a global scale to start to come to terms with in 2021 when sufficient vaccine distribution has taken place.
- COVID-19 PANDEMIC still creating havoc throughout Europe with more lockdowns and curfews added on mainland Europe. Caseloads and Hospitalizations are higher, even with the average infected age rate reducing. Hospitalization occupancy rates are varied throughout the EU27, but it is too soon to call a lower trend.
It is now widely reported that the “Herd Immunity” level within the general population to erase the virus will be circa. 70%.
Given the vaccine “Double Shot” requirement with a one-month gap between inoculations and then adding this to the vaccine production limits and average populations, it looks like the fall / autumn of 2021 before the G10 will achieve the 70% level.
This timeline is in my opinion aggressive and it could be faster but there are lots of unknowns to factor in and I believe given the logistics it may take a little longer than initially anticipated, I hope I am wrong.
So, there you have it a plethora of information to pick from.... I choose the cable instead.
1. THE SOAPBOX:
TIME FOR THE CABLE?
Last week my soapbox piece was called: -
BREXIT: THE END IS NIGH.... OR IS IT?
This week, having written quite a bit already I just want to focus on some TRADE CHARTS of the GBP/USD and some of the CROSS-RATES.
Before getting into the charts, I want to preface the charts with the following: -
- This segment is based on a BREXIT DEAL being agreed.
- My thoughts relating to each chart will be on each chart individually and all my thoughts and ideas are also written on the charts.
- Exact entry levels are obviously reserved for my WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers.
- Over the past few days several bank analysts have done the rounds on BLOOMBERG and CNBC stating what their thought processes are vis-à-vis a deal being struck between the UK and EU.The bank analyst and other market analysts GBP/USD “spike higher” predictions range from 1.3800 to 1.4000 / 1.4200 on a deal announcement.
Right now, both sides have “Dug their heels in” by re-stating their positions. Nevertheless, meetings are taking place this weekend in London.
- I have said on numerous occasions the GBP is undervalued even in this pandemic world. What is fair value?Analysts above my pay grade are closer to 1.4500 / 1.5000.
It has also been stated on BLOOMBERG that the BREXIT deal has already been priced in. In my eyes this is total bollocks.
- On a deal announcement we should consider the following in my opinion: -A market reaction should be interpreted as positive regardless of the full details of the deal. Based upon the fact large amounts of uncertainty SHOULD be removed even if it is a basic (skeleton) deal.
We will see a pullback after the deal is digested.
Over the medium term remember, the FED stills want to sacrifice the USD and the GBP move to fair value should be steady over Q1 and Q2 2021.
- I am a POSITION TRADE style trader I am looking for a 6-month trade with the GBP.My initial goal will be to bank initial profits via the trades I already have set up and then to CORE TRADE the remainder thru H1 2021.
As stated above in point 1; obviously, if the deal is NOT done and we have a HARD BREXIT, an Australian style agreement then as a result, all bets are off, and this SOAPBOX piece is pointless.
So, my charts are above.
My thoughts contained on the charts posted reflect a BREXIT deal that is received positively by the market.
As I have stated on numerous occasions in the past a deal, almost of any sort above an Australian style deal, WTO level, would at least remove complete uncertainty out of the market.
Whether we see a second push higher depends upon the details of the deal or maybe the structure of the deal.
From a trading perspective we may see a nice spike higher. Will it be a BUY THE RUMOUR / SELL THE NEWS event? I personally do NOT think so, but I do expect a pullback as stated earlier following the initial spike. If the deal is positive, this pullback represents a buying opportunity to BUY THE DIP.
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3. THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM:
3.1: FX PREMIUM MONTHLY PERFORMANCE:
3.2: WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:
The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is my subscriber based FX support option, which offers, subscribers’ full access to my suggested trade set-ups and my market commentaries.
If you go to my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com you will see more information about the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.
Lots of information about the way I do things, plus, previous reports about my trades, my trade styles and my trade projections for the year are located on my home page by selecting the appropriate tab located at the top of my home page.
There are 4 options for subscribing: -
- Monthly revolving subscription following a 10 day for $10 trial then a monthly CAD$200.00 per month.
- 10 weeks (c.3 months) = CAD$450.00The entry level is with a 3 month’s (10 weeks) subscription in CAD$450.00 equals approximately: -
CAD = CAD$450.00 (CAD$ 45 per week)
USD = USD$340.00 (USD$ 34 per week)
EUR = €310.00 (€ 31 per week)
GBP = £265.00 (£ 27 per week)
AUD = AUD$500.00 (AUD$ 50 per week)
NZD = NZD$520.00 (NZD$ 52 per week)
JPY = JPY 38,000.00 (JPY 3,800 per week)
CHF = CHF 340.00 (CHF 34 per week)
- 20 weeks (c.6 months) = CAD$750.00
- 40 weeks (c.12 months) = CAD$1,250.00
Further information about how to subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is also located at the top of my welcome page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “SUBSCRIBE” tab.
4. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:
(This section is only available to WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers and it is distributed in a separate version of THE DRIVE THRU blog)
5. CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Firstly, before finally...
My “YouTube” channel THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU now has a library of the older DRIVE THRU ZOOM presentations. Check it out and maybe subscribe. My intention is to post other “ZOOMS” there from time to time related to FX Trading.
Why not get positioned at the front of the line!
Finally, as usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #391 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 29th November 2020