For those interested, I closed of my month last Friday the 29th of January 2021.
This blog is one of my newly styled “month-end” reviews, much more “month end” supporting data is available on my website on my landing page under the HISTORY / PERFORMANCE – THIS YEAR’S PERFORMANCE tab.
Wow; what a month...
- Washington D.C. (Capitol Hill) failed insurrection / coup attempt.
- Initially many Republican lawmakers pointed the finger at TRUMP for inciting violence. After being saved from “the mob by law enforcement, the same GOP lawmakers now say it was not TRUMP who incited violence and they now support TRUMP to help them regain a Senate majority. Three words come to mind: - SWAMP, DYSFUNCTIONAL and LAUGHINGSTOCK.
- Outgoing President DONALD TRUMP impeached for a second time.
- Incoming President JOE BIDEN Inaugurated.
- Retail amateur investors group together on REDDIT to take on the mighty HEDGE FUNDS. Through buying stock in failing GAMESTOP creating a short squeeze against the HEDGE FUNDS resulting in billions of $$$$ losses.
For 2021, I still haven’t gotten my feet properly under my desk yet and I feel like I have done a year’s worth of screen-watching already. Like many traders I have seen nice trades go back and maybe what can be best described as maybe optimistic trades shot down in flames. The volatility and uncertainties within the markets have created trading ranges pushed to extremes, the odd failed breakout or breakdown move and in amongst all of this some quite wild moves given the news events.
At the end of the day, rather the month.... I have produced a positive pip result, albeit at the expense of my other objectives which did not fare as well.
Nevertheless, front and centre pips were generated.
JANUARY 2021: + 1,247 net pips generated.
2021 OBJECTIVE = 15,480 pips
8.06% of target now achieved
More about this later.
1. THE SOAPBOX:
WHEN THE WORLD ENDS
For Fecks Sake, What The Feck, Who are these Feckers, Get me the Fecking desk... now, Holy Mother of God and Jesus, Mary and Joseph are just a few examples of the type of phrases possibly uttered in Zoom’s / Web Ex videos conferences and in notes and emails last week throughout the Financial Institution bastions, the attack focused on and hit Hedge Funds more than most, on Wall Street and the like.
For these institutions yes... WHEN THE WORLD ENDS
Last week, I read somewhere that: -
- 2020 was the year that in America “the people” challenged the government culminating in a storming of the Capitol, threatening to hang the Vice President and in addition, assassinate House Leaders.
- 2021 we be the year that the American people take on the corrupt and biased Financial Markets supported by the FED.
For many U.S. institutions which, have been for years since the GFC largely left alone, supported by FED Monetary Policy, with its “Too Big to Fail” approach last week was a stark point made by the retail investor.
A wake-up moment, definitely. The wealth gap of the have’s and have nots perpetrated under 4 years of TRUMP reached the breaking point and with most events in the U.S. not one saw it coming.
For a country that claims to be, the biggest, the best, well, from perspective it is definitely the loudest, it has seen to be once again ASLEEP AT THE WHEEL.
For a country that prides itself as being the shining example around the world at everything, there is no fecking shine anymore as far as I can see... it is just one fuck up after the next. Think about it a group of small retail investors can meet on the “reddit” social media platform, look at who HEDGE FIRMS are shorting based upon expected poor financial results, invest and create a short squeeze causing HEDGE FIRMS to have millions of dollars at risk.
It sounds absolutely crazy; what makes it even more hilarious is that not only the fact that the “have nots” have had the chance to make thousands of dollars through these actions and many have. They have in many, many cases done so through COVID-19 support cheques distributed by the government. You could NOT make this stuff up.
There is of course a serious side here, which needs noting.
We appear to be in a “Don’t give a Crap” environment.
Market moves in stocks and, options in particular, is like the dot.com era all over again. Without doubt we are in a 100% nihilistic environment were extreme skepticism in prevalent. It is like watching existing rules and principles being unceremoniously dumped with a belief that nothing in the Financial world has a real existence.
Are we heading for a BLACK SWAN event?... maybe if this action continues. I do NOT see it going away especially as BIDEN is trying to issue $1,400 more to add to the play money.
I expect regulation. Yet another GAP in the U.S. Financial System has been targeted and exploited showing that Wall Street is just NOT perfect, there are gaps like swiss cheese.
The volatility and ease of exploitation in stocks will cause issues for the SEC. Whilst there are calls to let the markets simply do their stuff, when Wall Street profits are at stake from an outside influence, Wall Street does NOT like it. Especially when it is retail wagging the tail of the dog. When listening to BLOOMBERG the guests rolled out talking about the “GAMESTOP and AMC” squeezes could only offer commentary that states in the past it was always assumed that retail would NOT be able to effect change over institutional traders vis-à-vis stock prices. Well, we now know that it is possible, and we await to see what the next chapter has in store for us.
Over the years of writing this blog every weekend, I think one of my most popular words or phrases used has been “Chop Fest”. It has never defined FX Trading so precisely as it has done of late. If ever there was a government health warning required to trading in the Equity, Bonds, Options, Futures, Commodities and FX markets now is the time.
What about my FX Trading?
Well, the FX market even with reduced liquidity through less major market participants still has much greater liquidity than equities and the rest. To coin a phrase FX is “DEEP” not “SURFACE”. So, with that point made, obviously one still needs to apply a certain restraint as false moves will be more than usual especially with currency pairs with specific close inter-market relationships, such as JPY pairs and commodity current pairs linked to the USD.
It is a chopfest in FX so that by itself tells you to be careful, take smaller position sizes and watch over short-term trades like a hawk.
Be careful and be very selective with trades.
2. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM: JANUARY 2021 PERFORMANCE:
The complete set of spreadsheets can be found on my homepage at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “History / Performance” tab, sub section “This Year’s Performance”.
2.1: THE MONTHLY & YEAR TO DATE OVERVIEW:
2.2: MONTHLY PERFORMANCE SUMMARY:
2.3: YEAR TO DATE PERFORMANCE SUMMARIES:
2.4: MY THOUGHTS ON THE MONTH and YEAR TO DATE:
January was quite a difficult month for several reasons.
It was choppy, choppy within ranges and at times moves were difficult to reason whether technically or fundamentally and hard to see a confirmed direction. We have intense volatility at times which we all want but the volatility was on many occasions directionless. On several occasions the flashing lights on my screens resembled a 1970-1980’s disco, BUT FX was NOT really moving in any direction. It was 20 pips one way then back and then a rinse and repeat move, over and over.
- I took a positive +1,247 pips.
- My pips per completed trade = 36.68 pips against an objective of 40.00 pips per completed trade.
- Ratio of Winning to Losing trades was 71% / 29% against an objective of 80% / 20%.
Breaking my numbers down: -
FLASH TRADES (Loss 125 pips): my shorter-time framed trade style offered a poor return. Every single trade in January in this TRADE STYLE involved a commodity currency (AUD, NZD & CAD). Whilst actual trade losses were limited, 4 out of my 5 trades were losing trades and 4 of my 5 trades were in the last few days of the month when they were just swallowed up in volatility.
No excuses but my journal at least gives me the reasons in black and white as to why the trades failed. Directionally all 5 trades were in the right direction and with wider stops 4 out of the 5 would have made good $$$$ and a positive pip return. These trades however were NOT set up to be long term trades, they were set up to be opportunist.
RADAR TRADES (Positive 70 pips): faired a little better in the sense that a positive +70 pips were recorded but this was from 13 trades and it is a poor return. Commodity related pairs were again my downfall together with a failed trade with the EUR/JPY.
My school report would say “Must Do Better!”
POSITION TRADES (Positive 1,247 pips): These “CORE POSITIONS” once again demonstrated that trading away from the noise allowing trades air to breathe to provide a consistent return. Only the EUR/CHF did not add pips last month from those positions that were in existence in 2020.
OVERVIEW: Whilst I believe that during 2021, commodity related currencies will provide a huge amount of pip making opportunities, I have to admit based on January 2021, it was very much “Round 1” to my brokers!
3. MY FREE CONTENT SUMMARY:
3.1: DRIVE THRU BLOG “FREE NEWSLETTER & DRIVE THRU ZOOM:
If you already subscribe to this DRIVE THRU blog NEWSLETTER, you will also receive into your inbox each weekend my video DRIVE THRU ZOOM and both are 100% FREE. Both are delivered usually before noon New York time every Sunday that I complete a DRIVE THRU blog.
For those of you who pick up the COFFEE SHOP / CHIRINGUITO version of this blog, if you want THE DRIVE THRU ZOOM, you will need to subscribe to this blog. Obviously, I would prefer if you subscribed to the FX PREMIUM and came on board for the FX journey of 2021 in its entirety. FX PREMIUM subscribers get so much more by way of content and do NOT forget they also get the opportunity to take profit winning trades as well.
Why do I provide FREE content?
Very simply, I hope that what I provide FREE will tempt you to look at upgrading to a FEE-PAYING subscription to my subscription service THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM. Details about subscription costs can be found on my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the TAB on my landing page titled SUBSCRIBE.
3.2: MY FREE E BOOK & FREE video ZOOM:
In addition to the above content NEWSLETTER subscribers will also have access to my E BOOK called, “Forex Trading My Way... It Could Also Work For You”, which looks at FX Trading Goals and Objectives for THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM through 2021.
To partner my E BOOK I have also completed a short overview ZOOM video presentation, links to connect to both are below: -
FOREX TRADING... MY WAY – IT COULD ALSO WORK FOR YOU
THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM...
TRADING GOALS & OBJECTIVES 2021
E BOOK 2021 LINK:
ZOOM VIDEO LINK:
4. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION:
Basically, my website landing page has all the information that you would need to make a qualified decision about whether or not the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM would be a good fit for you or not. Lots of information about the way I do things, plus, previous reports about my trades, my trade styles and my trade projections for the year are located on my home page by selecting the appropriate tab located at the top of my home page.
Basically, there are 4 options for subscribing: -
- Monthly revolving subscription following a 10 day for $10 trial then a monthly CAD$250.00 per month.
- 10 weeks (c.3 months) = CAD$600.00
- 20 weeks (c.6 months) = CAD$1,000.00
- 40 weeks (c.12 months) = CAD$1,500.00
Further information about how to subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is also located at the top of my welcome page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “SUBSCRIBE” tab.
5. WEEKLY FX PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS:
(The commentary in this section is delivered via a separate version of this blog direct to my WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers).
6. MY FINAL THOUGHTS:
Finally, as usual...
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Finally, Be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Be positive, keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #399 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 31st January 2021