THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM: REVIEW OF THE APRIL 2022 PERFORMANCE

This week is a shorter version of the blog, reflecting only on the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM April trading performance.

For the vast majority (almost 75%) of April, I was on my spring break around the Easter holiday period which I use to re-charge the batteries ahead of the sprint towards the summer. To be honest, I was at my screens much more than I had intended as there were several trading alarms activated to which I had to react.

It has been a very volatile past couple of weeks. Like many traders I have been both adding and losing pips over the past month. I have been trying to maintain my “vacation mode”, so I have been just managing rather than adding trades. Taking a step back, nothing has fundamentally changed with regards to the huge list of uncertainties that were hanging over the markets just before Easter. The difference is that the chickens have come home to roost and the markets have finally moved away from a complacent position and attitude.

The recent weeks have been a full-on test of my attitude towards FOMO. Whilst I am not 100% happy that I have only been managing longer-term trades and deciding whether or not to cover or to maintain, this has been a challenge. I look forward to next week to get to grips with matters once again and get fully immersed.

Moving on...

Here is the April performance of the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.

APRIL 2022:
Total net pips = +1,452 pips.

YEAR TO DATE 2022:
Total net pips = +6,789 pips
(45.50% of my 2022 objective of +14,920 net pips)

 

1: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – APRIL 2022 PERFORMANCE:

1.1: MONTHLY TRADE STYLE PERFORMANCE:

Basically, referring to the spreadsheet above, this reports on potential income for single-lot trades and for simplicity I have valued Micro lots at USD$0.10 per trade, Mini lots at USD$1.00 per trade and finally Standard lots at USD$10.00 per trade.

Obviously, you trade your position size to the levels you can comfortably trade your broker account without creating margin calls etc.

Therefore, on the spreadsheet using the highlighted reference points: -:

A: - This represents at USD$1.00 (Mini Lots) per trade a USD$ income of $1,452.00 which, correlates to my reporting of net pips for the month of +1,452 pips.

B: - Costs trade reflects the fact that 76 Mini lot trades in total were undertaken at a cost of 39 x USD1.00 = USD$39.00.

C: - When subtracting B from A this gives a net income total based on trading just single Mini lot trades of USD$1,413.00.

 

1.2: MY THOUGHTS ON THE MONTH (THAT WAS):

Being on a (sort of) vacation, I always find these months a little awkward. It wasn’t helped following the Easter holiday, when basically all hell was let loose.

I took almost 800 pips in losses last month. I exited my Core short EUR/GBP and booked a negative 350 pips, and I took a similar loss NZD/JPY short, just before the JPY weakened across the board.

On a more positive note, I took nice pips short on EUR crosses (EUR/CAD and EUR/NZD) and nice pips long EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD.

However, behind the numbers posted, I am building up positions that are under water to varying degrees at the moment, which can be both exciting and worrying at the same time. My longer-term positions despite some whopping moves are still operating inside ranges, there are a couple of exceptions, and they will be managed a little closer than the others.

The demand for the USD is unrelenting at the moment, which when you take into consideration all of the uncertainties facing markets is completely understandable, however, there will come a time when the USD move ends.

I still believe that the FED will disappoint with the number of interest rate hikes as the fears of STAGFLATION and RECESSION bite. I do NOT know of any accountant who would knowingly want to raise interest rates into a recessionary environment. The writing is on the wall vis-à-vis Consumer confidence and the fact that there are comments bouncing around the financial markets claiming that the FED will sacrifice the US economy (Economic Growth) in favour of fixing inflation, I think requires huge clarification. We may see some of this at this week’s FOMC meeting.

Are we heading into a FED “BUY THE RUMOUR / SELL THE NEWS” event?  If not the meeting this week, the following meeting? In which case, a USD sell off would be huge as so much of the DXY move has been based upon multiple rate hikes.

Moving on and looking at the monthly performance once again...

My pips generated for completed Position trades were:
24 completed trades
+992 pips generated
= +41.33 pips per completed trade

Overall including Flash and Radar trades the pips per completed drops lower:
39 completed trades
+1,452 pips
= +37.23  pips per completed trade
My objective is 40 pips per completed trade.

The performance ratio on positive / negative trades was 87% / 17%, which is above my objective of 80% / 20%.

 

1.3: MONTHLY TRADE BY TRADE REVIEW:

2: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – YEAR TO DATE 2022 PERFORMANCE:

2.1: YEAR TO DATE TRADE STYLE PERFORMANCE

Basically, referring to the spreadsheet above, this reports on potential income for single-lot trades and for simplicity I have valued Micro lots at USD$0.10 per trade, Micro lots at USD$1.00 per trade and finally Standard lots at USD$10.00 per trade.

Obviously, you trade your position size to the levels you can comfortably trade your broker account without creating margin calls etc.

Referring to the year-to-date spreadsheet above and using the highlighted reference points: -

D: - The gross year to date income from all trade styles is USD$6,769. This is based upon single Mini lot trades valued at USD$1.00 which, correlates with my reporting of net pips year to date of +6,789 pips.

E: - Costs to trade reflects the fact that 186 Mini lot trades in total have completed so far this year at a cost of 186 x USD1.00 = USD$186.00.

F: - When subtracting B from A this gives a net income total based on single Mini lot trades of USD$6,603.00.

G: - An annual WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscription costs CAD$1,500.00, which is approximately USD$1,200.00.

H: - After the annual subscription cost is deducted, the net income after all costs is USD$5,403.00 based off trading just single Mini lot trades.

With regards to my other objectives: -

Overall pips per completed trade:
186 completed trades
+6,789 pips
= +36.50 pips per completed trade
My objective is 40 pips per completed trade.

The performance ratio on positive / negative trades was 86% / 14%, which is above my objective of 80% / 20%.

There is a huge amount of additional monthly and year to date trading information and reports available on my website https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com This can be found on my home / landing page under the tab at the top of the page titled HISTORY / PERFORMANCE, scroll down to “This year’s Performance”.

 

3: THE EDGE:
(This section is exclusive to WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers)

 

4: CLOSING THOUGHTS:

4.1: THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – SUBSCRIPTION INFORMATION

If you like my approach to the market and are wondering what my trades are like from, a live perspective and what is the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM all about, check out my website https://wwww.weeklyfxdrivethru.com

The WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is my subscriber-based FX support option, which offers, subscribers’ full access to my suggested trade set-ups and my market commentaries via Twitter, TwitLonger and ZOOM.

Further information about how to subscribe to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM is also located at the top of my welcome page at https://www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the “SUBSCRIBE” tab.

 

4.2: THE LAST DROP

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with a good MINDSET, RISK, TRADE and HEAD MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility. Trade with a TRADE PLAN, basically, plan your trades and Trade your Plan.

Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions

 

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator

Twitter: @weeklyfxpremium
(Restricted feed FX PREMIUM subscribers only - FX PREMIUM Trade Information)
Twitter: @theanalogtrader
(Restricted feed FX PREMIUM subscribers only - FX PREMIUM Market Commentaries & Views)
Twitter: @thepipaccumulator
(Open feed)

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BLOG VERSION: #452 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 1^st May 2022