A BUBBLING CAULDRON OF SH*T

WELCOME:

I promised at the start of July during the last WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU (ZOOM) that I would provide a brief blog to review the July 2022 performance of THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscription service performance.

What I am posting here, is basically the TwitLonger review that I posted a few days ago for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers.

The only changes to the original post are the addition of a few excel spreadsheets that subscribers automatically have at their disposal via their private website access. Plus, notes and ideas on current trades are removed as these are solely for WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscribers.

I went further than expected with my content based around my belief that we are with eyes wide open heading into a potential global BLACK SWAN event, emanating in EUROPE. So, although technically I am on vacation, it could be called something like Janet Yellen’s interpretation that two concurrent negative GDP numbers does NOT mean a technical recession... if you catch my drift. I am still very much involved with the market overall moves and I am somewhat hooked into the news flow and data.

 

OVERVIEW:

I am hooked on the data releases and the commentaries that follow.

Here is the summary of the past 7 days from my perspective: -

• The FED are now on data dependency just like the ECB.
  I STILL maintain a pivot is on the way.
• A quarterly 0.9% negative GDP print last Thursday = RECESSION. Even though Janet Yellen cannot face this data head on and its implications.
• Thursday last week, she basically bullshitted her way through a rambling presentation and her interpretation of the facts she wanted to review. She cherry picked data to fit the narrative she wanted to promote.
• The EUROZONE are in real danger of a Russian energy cut off.
• The German economy is stagnating. As the EU powerhouse this is really concerning.
• EUROZONE inflation reaches new highs at 8.9%, although GDP grew slightly. A EUROZONE recession is when NOT if.
• RBA ready for 0.50% hike this week based on the recent annual CPI data at 6.1%.
• The BOE rumblings continue but I expect to see a 0.50% hike this Thursday and then a wait and see... data dependency approach

What does all this mean? If I knew 100%, I would be sipping cocktails on a beach and not cooking BBQ lunches and dinners...

I do have opinions though.

• The market will overreact to the FED pivot. It will take a few sessions to settle down and take stock to the US recession.
• Data now means something.
• Markets will look to anything that means the FED will stop hiking as an excuse to buy RISK.
• The Jackson Hole symposium in late August will become an unofficial FED meeting, with the markets looking for clues from Powell’s speech.
• Most Central Banks take the lead from the FED so by the end of Q3 I expect all Central Banks to be “Data Dependent”.

In addition, I have a major prediction for later this year.

 

LOOKING FORWARDS:

The BOE and RBA will both raise by 0.50% at their next scheduled meetings this week. However, post these announcements I do believe that we are now moving into a data dependent environment.

During the summer we will drift from the BOE announcement through to the Jackson Hole symposium, which in my opinion will be viewed as an unofficial FOMC meeting by the time the symposium comes around.

Here is my prediction and bigger thoughts into Q4 and the end of 2022.

This is focused on UK and EUROPE.

I see the ENERGY CRISIS taking a leap forward to becoming a true BLACK SWAN event. This will cause interest rate cuts and a return to emergency measures ... QUANTITATIVE EASING (QE).

I see this because the EUROZONE and potentially the UK will virtually collapse under the pressure of the winter adverse weather conditions, energy inflation, and weather-related deaths. Never mind the continued FOOD INFLATION and SUPPLY CHAIN issues. If some commentators believe we are having a summer of discontent this will pale into insignificance in comparison to what lies ahead.

The EUR/USD will be in danger of a full-on collapse below parity maybe to 0.9500 along with the GBP/USD back to 1.1500 but the ECB and BOE will back and support the currencies in the markets, although I expect to see extreme volatility prior to any real structured support being provided. This structured support will be partially supported by a G7 Central Banks coordinated response.

This is a bold prediction, but so far, I have seen nothing to make me believe otherwise that this is not a real risk, and I am 80% convinced that European Politicians are staring down into an abyss.

It will start with ENERGY supply issues, more FOOD INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT it will be tantamount if not a full-on DEPRESSION when historians document the events in years to come.

I know, this is real DOOM & GLOOM... ARMAGEDDON stuff, but in all honesty, I just cannot see PUTIN not tightening his grip as the UKRAINE war rolls on and sanctions bite the RUSSIAN economy, not that it appears he cares one jot about anything other than a land grab.

 

FOREX OVERVIEW:
(This section was 100% focused on existing trades and therefore has been cut from the version)

 

WEEKLY FX PREMIUM - JULY 2022 PERFORMANCE:

I have added the closing excel spread sheets for last month to the relevant pages on the website plus they can also be found via the following link -

https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/this-years-performance/

If my thought process is accurate moving forward vis-à-vis a BLACK SWAN event, the difficult decisions made during last month will pale into insignificance with what lies ahead.

WEEKLY FX PREMIUM: JULY 2022 PERFORMANCE

Basically, last month overall I banked 3,030 losing pips, so to end the month overall just negative by 415 pips from my perspective was a good performance all things considered for which I am very grateful.

Be under no disillusions; I see real market issues moving forward and at the moment FEAR is just NOT strong enough to grip the focus of the market makers.

Whilst, overall, I currently sit via pips for the year to date at +11,044 against a 2022 target of +14,920 (74% of objective achieved), my thought process right now is telling me that maybe as much as 20% / 25% of these gained pips could be under threat if I have to exit multiple trades and close some positions as we head into the year end. I will remain as entrepreneurial as possible BUT I do see a bloodbath ahead as FEAR & GREED will eventually take hold.

Back to the July performance, my KPi (Key Performance Indicators are mixed.

Pips per completed trade is now at 34.30 pips YTD against an objective of 40.
Overall my Profitable to Losing trades ratio sits at 85% / 15% against an objective of 80% / 20%, which looks good, but both RADAR and FLASH trade averages are below par.

So there is work to do.

Below is my NET YEAR TO DATE summary allowing for all trading costs to be included including a subscription to the WEEKLY FX PREMIUM.

As you can see from the excel sheet below from single lot trades the overall trading summary is good:

D = $11,044.00 in gross income based upon single mini lot trades at USD$1.00 per trade. This will correlate to Monthly Summary chart already posted in this blog showing +11,044 net pips generated this year so far.

E = 322 trades completed at USD$1.00 per trade = costs to trade of USD$322.00

F = NET profit on trading = USD$10,722.00

G = Approximate costs of an annual WEEKLY FX PREMIUM subscription of CAD$1,500.00 = USD$1,200.00

H = Overall net trading income after all costs (including subscription costs) being allowed for = USD$9,522.00.

Therefore, if you followed my suggested trades and exited at the same time as myself from simply trading one single mini lot per trade your NET profit so far in 2022 = USD$9,522.00

 

OVERALL SUMMARY:

Basically, we have a BUBBLING CAULDRON OF SH*T on the horizon if I am correct. I have given myself 90 days or so to sort out my brokers and get ready. I obviously want to minimize losses so everything through the summer and September will be cautious but in line with my overview outlined above.

I talked last year about ARMAGEDDON TRADES and how we could be facing a BLACK SWAN event that never properly materialized around the pandemic. Here we are just over two years after the pandemic lockdowns of March 2020, possibly facing a new BLACK SWAN event. We are approaching the precipice.

I just do NOT see the political coordination to be pro-active, rather a very hit and miss series of reactive moves until we have the inevitable coordinated response. Whilst the west has come together with unity around the UKRAINE / RUSSIA war, the plans for the future surrounding energy issues in Europe appear to be relatively uncoordinated and to some extent it appears that is every man for themselves!

I see ITALY being subjected to a RUSSIAN pincer move to try and split the EUROPEAN coordinated energy response. The political changes at the top in ITALY leave a void which I believe PUTIN will try to exploit.

I hope for obvious reasons to be wrong. Maybe between now and the end of October a coordinated ENERGY survival plan will be in play in the EUROZONE and the UK. However, even I cannot be that optimistic given the politicians in situ.

Look, nobody loves a challenge more than me. I am up for this, and I believe I am looking at stuff now that is only, if only, just being whispered about institutionally. Being real, I can only as a retail trader move on the coattails of the institutions BUT being prepared with eyes wide open gives the opportunity.

As I see it, I have about 90 days to exit what I feel I should NOT be trading. The harder decision is to factor in all the data and news between now and Q4 to decide what I should be trading instead. Consider this action item to be in play already.

Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with a good MINDSET, RISK, TRADE and HEAD MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility. Trade with a TRADE PLAN, basically, plan your trades and Trade your Plan.

Finally, be GRATEFUL for your wins and COUNT THEM. Keep a POSITIVE MINDSET in play at all times, regardless of the market conditions.

 

Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator

Twitter: @weeklyfxpremium
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BLOG VERSION: #466 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 01.08.2022