(CORE) POSITION TRADE
TRADE REFERENCE: CP10
TRADE DIRECTION: LONG
TRADE STARTED: 25th September 2019
EXPECTED TRADING PERIOD: Very Long Term (2/3 years and beyond)
DATE LATEST VIDEO UPDATE: 1st February 2022
VIDEO UPDATE LINK: CP10audnzd01052022
CURRENCY PAIR: AUD/NZD
(CORE) POSITION TRADE: CP10
TRADE DIRECTION: LONG
We are now heading upwards in a BULL CHANNEL at the moment; however, we are heading into resistance around 1.0700 / 1.0720 (Daily Chart).
My GLOBAL LIMITS are set at 1.1000 and then as far away at 1.2350. This is a very long-term trade, and it is for me, nothing more than addressing this pair with patience.
My long-term limit sits at the 61.8% retracement from the March 2011 highs to the March 2020 Covid lows, which is 1.2350 (Monthly Chart). Right now, we are in a broad trading range from 0.9980 thru to the 38% retracement of the move just highlighted which sits at 1.1450.
I do NOT play trading ranges, but this pair might convert me!
I entered this pair with my eyes wide open based upon a report from the NAB about AUD and NZD fair values, which placed this pair substantially higher than current prices. Then came COVID-19... I am still very happy to hold and continue to BUY DIPS.
I need to see the range broken at 1.1450. It is as simple as that otherwise we move sideways.
With one of my KEY DRIVERS in 2022 being commodities I expect AUD demand into H2 of this year to grow and it will NOT be until then in my opinion that we see this pair potentially move higher.
TRADE PLAN (HOW AM I GOING TRADE?):
BUY DIPS and accumulate through 2022 based off what I believe will be a demand for commodities and strengthening commodity currencies.
Q1 2022 UPDATE:
We have tested the multi year trend line and failed on the first attempt.
In this review, I have tightened up my STOP LOSS level and brought my LIMIT closer to current pricing.
I still think and believe with conviction that higher prices with this pair are on the cards. We have key levels of 1.1000 and 1.1360 to pass first, then I feel we could squeeze a little higher towards the high teens and try to push for 1.2000.
This is an long, long-term trade.
01.05.2022 - CHART UPDATE from 5 Minute ZOOM: