If ever anyone says to you that FX trading is boring and un-eventful just remind them of the shenanigans that went on last week.
Mario Draghi, ECB President and the “sources” my arse saying that the markets mis-judged his comments. What a load of bollocks.
Mark Carney the governor of the BOE doing what he does best “Flip-Flopping and finally, last but not least…
Stephen Poloz governor of the BOC announcing that the BOC are en route to change policy away from supportive to hawkish by possibly looking to raise Canadian interest rates before the end of 2017 (I would say if oil drops through $40.00 that move could be delayed).
The three flutes named above have suddenly (coordinated?) turned from GAME KEEPERS to POACHERS vis-a-vis their interest rate policies.
I will return to this matter later in the blog with the “SOAPBOX”
Getting back into the groove now, the PREMIUM SERVICE added about 300 pips last week and I am now back in the mode of CORE POSITIONS and stacking up LIMIT ORDERS.
Having said that, it is hard trading at the moment; one must remember that it is summer and we have been blessed with a few moves that may be over-played, but nonetheless have provided some great moves. If you are a cautious and conservative trader like me, you are probably kicking yourself over a few hundred pips extra you could have gained had you not exited positions too early.
Remember; no one should ever feel guilty about banking pips and few $$$. It’s a much better feeling the losing $$$. Like most of you I guess, we still look at the woulda, coulda and shoulda trades. It’s a normal reaction … but just move on.
Very comfortable now in my new surroundings in Nova Scotia. It’s a great spot and much better for me trading in a bright open office with a view rather than the darkened room, with a huge fecking tree blocking out most of the natural light that I had previously in Quebec. These subtle differences do make a difference.
- LAST WEEK – MY TAKE ON SOME KEY EVENTS:
It would be very easy to repeat myself three or four times in various sections of the blog this week. It will be a check on the state of my mental health to see if I can avoid this!
It was a light week with regards to Economic data but holy fuck the central bank governors and presidents more than made up for that.
In no particular order, here is what floated my boat last week.
- OIL and USD/CAD:
Picture this: - An old man every morning switching on his machines and looking at the screens swearing at himself, “FFS why the feck I am not short this fecking pair” … this was me all week and guess what, I’ll still be doing it next week at this rate.
As I mentioned in last week’s LIVE WEBINAR (without getting on my soapbox), I predicted OIL lower to about $42.00 then a small bounce then a test of $40.00. So far it’s playing out.
I need to get my ass in gear and have a USD/CAD short trade set up in position.
OIL is a dirty old commodity and OPEC are an out of date collection of countries that lie to each other and the world about production because of pure greed. As the world becomes less and less reliant on middle eastern OIL the effectiveness of what OPEC does or says gets less and less
I wish that that I could come down off that fence and say what I really mean.
Putting my attempt at humour to one side, this is all about pure, basic and very simple Economic SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
This highly speculative market has lost its edge of late as many hedge funds who were big participants in the OIL markets are no longer around. The ability to push the price around is still there but the logic (did I actually use that word in association with OIL?) has long gone.
So basically, this is a SUPPLY AND DEMAND call and nothing else. I think that this message is hitting home with a bit more bite now.
Back to the CAD…
I am looking for mid 1.32’s for an entry short if possible but this looks unlikely if data continues to come in line or beat expectations. As long as I am in short prior to the next BOC meeting at this stage these are my thoughts.
- DRAGHI and the ECB:
Holy Mother of God. What a fecking gang of unprofessional idiots. They must have all been acting as the scarecrow from the wizard of Oz. Not a damn brain between the lot of them.
“Unnamed sources” basically the ECB, shit themselves because the single currency strengthened, basically it leapt up like a salmon, and then they tell us a day later that we’re the fecking numpties as we misinterpreted Draghi’s speech. Bollocks basically double bollocks.
The FX market was on steroids for the day of Draghi’s speech (Tuesday) and the following day calamity reigned for many retail traders still long. As the “unnamed sources” sound-byte hit the wires everything EUR dropped 100-200 pips in an instant. I’d say that hurt a lot of people because the fills would have been poor, especially with the likes of FXCM! Did they do what they usually do in situations like this and just lock out traders?
Over the rest of Wednesday the single currency reversed back to the previous day levels. Helter-skelter day!
- THE ECB ECONOMIC FORUM (Sintra, Portugal)
Draghi was there as host, along with his three amigos, Carney (BOE), Poloz (BOC) and Kuroda (BOJ).
This was where “Carney the flip-flopper” came out of his closet to announce that he would be looking to raise after all… what a “plonker”.
Poloz confirmed what he stated earlier on CNBC about removing accommodation from the BOC and to start looking to raise interest rates.
Kuroda, apart from needing to spend a few $$$ on dental work, announced nada, nothing new. The BOJ now remains the only central bank in true dovish, accommodative mode.
More about this topic later.
- JANET YELLEN:
On Tuesday I cut out of trades early after Draghi’s first speech ahead of Janet Yellen’s diary date.
FFS, it was granny tells a fecking story around the fireside….
I cut profitable trades to be sensible for “Storytime with Janet”. Never have I been so disappointed. No policies, no outlook, no guessing and no gossip; just stories about Ben and Merv “the swerve”.
The negotiations have started in Brussels. Nothing much at all is being leaked. This surprises me, or maybe they are still agreeing on what pens to use on what size of paper?
- THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE WEBINAR:
I am canceling the LIVE WEBINARS for the summer and will start up again in the fall/autumn.
- THE FX MARKET PLACE:
THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:
MY THOUGHTS ON THE ECONOMIC DATA EVENTS THIS WEEK:
Quite a bit scheduled this week. This makes a change from recent weeks and a few items stand out for me.
- USD: The pick of the week for most traders but NOT me is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll numbers. I think I have had more luck on the lottery lately… at least with the lottery you stand a chance of winning.
As usual all your family favourites will be dragged onto CNBC, BLOOMBERG and FOX BUSINESS to talk shite about the numbers no one can predict. Frankly given the fact the US department of statistics only give us approximations because previous numbers are altered up and down, in fact previous, previous numbers are altered… it’s all rather a game to stay away from in my opinion. Paint a wall, take out your significant other, mow the lawn or just pick yer nose it’s better than the madness of NFP day.
Prior to NFP we have ADP jobs data, no real help for NFP as last months numbers showed. The FOMC meeting minutes should be interesting to see how hawkish the FED really are. Is it all fur coat and no knickers, we should find out Wednesday.
- GBP: A plethora of PMi data. Services and Construction should be strong but Manufacturing maybe a bit below. All are expected to be over 50.
- AUD: The RBA have a rate statement announcement plus we have Retail sales and a Trade balance number to look forward to. I am getting excited just thinking about these news items. I am well hedged the AUD at the moment so I couldn’t give a rats hairy arse what way the numbers go.
- CAD: Stephen Poloz (BOC Governor), will be looking closely at the Trade balance and Jobs data no doubt with a BOC interest rate decision up very soon.
Personally, given the importance of OIL to the CAD economy and commodities in general, I think he will have more than just one eye on WTi.
USD MAJORS – SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS TO NOTE THIS WEEK:
The charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.
- THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
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PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:
So; if nothing else, I tell it how it is. I am currently about 40% of my target for this time of the year. I had a poor start to the year and I am now following a vacation and house move in recovery mode.
In 2014, 2015 and 2016 I beat my 10,000 pip per annum objective. There is nothing stopping me doing the same this year as my house move and vacation are both behind me.
I will be trading pretty much full time from now on through to the end of 2017. The opportunity to make pips with me is there and as you will see later in this section and on my webpage, I have a special promotion that was due to expire at the end of June, which I have extended until the open of the markets on July 2nd at 5PM EST, called “DOUBLE IT UP”.
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- PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER CONTENT AREA:
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- THE SOAPBOX:
THE GAME KEEPERS ARE NOW POACHERS!
Last week will be remembered for several things as far as I am concerned: -
- Draghi turns hawkish.
- The ECB tell us he wasn’t hawkish at all.
- Carney “flip flops” again.
- Poloz confirms he’s gone hawkish.
- Janet’s cozy fire side chat (non-event).
- Kuroda is not at the party with the other CB Governors.
- Donald Trump’s bizarre tweets (nothing unusual…I suppose).
- Rampant Commodity currencies.
- Theresa May surviving the Queens Speech vote.
They were all interesting in their own right, but I want to focus on those bullet points at the top of the list.
A couple of weeks ago (June 17th) I wrote in this SOAPBOX section about how I thought we as traders probably had a window of about 4/6 months when Central Bank policy divergence between the FED and the other G7 countries Central Banks would give us some strong directional trading opportunities.
With what happened last week, I think we can forget that.
In true ECB style, President Draghi announces to the world on Tuesday that the EURO AREA recovery was both strengthening and broadening. He added that the Central Bank can aid this covered by adjusting the parameters of it’s policy instruments. He added that the DEFLATION threat was over and reflationary forces were now at play.
This announcement was the catalyst for yields to swiftly move higher and this took the EUR/USD up around 150 pips as the single currency broadly strengthened across all EUR linked pairs. The USD (DXY) Index was crushed to hit lows.
Now, he still had dovish undertones in his speech, but surely to God the ECB could have predicted the response by the markets.
The following day…the Lord giveth and the Lord taketh away, at least for an hour or so anyway. In true ECB style of days gone by, out comes an announcement (as the EUR/USD was poking above 1.1400), from un-named sources that the markets read Draghi’s previous day’s speech all wrong, “He was Dovish not Hawkish”.
What a load of crap that was. As mentioned earlier in the blog, all EUR related pairs dropped between 100 and 250 pips in an instant. My guess is that many traders were stopped out way beyond their stop loss levels as the move lower was swift with little or no stopping points on the way, one can just imagine the slippage some brokers would have transmitted to clients.
Over the following couple of hours, the markets got a grip re-read what Draghi had said and ignored the “un-named source”. Now let’s get one thing absolutely clear. The ECB shit themselves over EUR appreciation across the board and thought they could walk back Draghi’s speech…. bloody idiots. The “un-named” source was an ECB underling of some sort.
The ECB has done this sort of thing (try to walk back press releases etc.) because they could not organize a piss up in a brewery.
The same day as the attempted walk back from the ECB, “Flip –Flopper” Carney was at it again. The BOE governor was so dovish a week earlier he dismissed the MPC vote of 5-3 at the BOE over a rate hike in sterling. One week later, he is now saying that rates could be moving upwards before the end of 2017.
Cable rallied across the board, the GBP/USD by about 300 pips in the last few days of last week. It now resides around 1.3000.
Stephen Poloz, governor of the BOC also announced that the BOC was looking to end its accommodative policy regarding the CAD.
Was all this change of direction coordinated? Was the fact that Janet Yellen, FED chair, in her cozy chat session later the same day after the Carney and Poloz announcements deliberately held without any mention of FED policies or US economic data references?
Is the Pope catholic?
All of this was stage managed and coordinated down to the minute. The only screw up was the ECB, not for the first time misunderstanding the effect of the statement.
Without doubt at some time Central Bank policies would change around the world and from that perspective we should not be surprised, but it was the coordination of the message that was fascinating.
The first aspect about all of this I would like to mention is that from the BOE and ECB perspective nothing will probably change until closer to the end of the year, maybe even into early 2018. At least that’s my takeaway.
Do we still have divergence with Central Banks?
Yes, but it’s now not as easy to trade because the markets will now be anticipating moves in interest rates and speculation will be at fever pitch from now on.
What I do think is that the USD was crushed… over crushed and the likelihood of a bounce in the DXY is good.
Without doubt, every word written or uttered by Draghi, Poloz and Flip-Flopper will be scrutinized beyond belief. The game keepers have now turned poachers for want of a better phrase.
A couple of years ago, in the archives of the DRIVE THRU, I wrote about Central Bank Governors / Presidents being treated as Rock Stars by the markets. I referred to this again after BREXIT when Carney had a walk of about 50 metres to get to the lectern to deliver his actions to support cable. All he needed on the walk were a few lasers borrowed from Pink Floyd and dry ice as he finally entered the conference room.
In my opinion, we are back at this stage again.
As long as we don’t get the likes of Steve Liesmann from CNBC throwing his underpants on the stage when Janet Yellen walks in, in a Tom Jones copycat move made by his female fans, we should be alright.
Now there is a picture to pour out your Sunday morning cornflakes to!
- CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #243 FREE NEWSLETTER VERSION
DATE: 1st July 2017.