I usually start off my weekly blog with a personal comment about how I currently feel about trading and the markets in general. Not wanting to be stereotyped I thought I would do something a little different this time.
Having made the 13-hour drive / move from Quebec we are now set up in Nova Scotia in Atlantic Canada known as the Maritimes. I am sitting at my desk with a view of forest to the side and back of our lawns, which are now fenced in to ensure that Ozzy and Aoife (Labradors) do not go a wandering and disappear.
PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers are aware that I attempted to return to trading last Monday but I quickly realized that was way too ambitious given the ongoing emptying of boxes, arranging of furniture etc., and the needs required based around the general house set up.
I am now going to be trading for the next two weeks, including the long flight to Auckland via Toronto and Hong Kong and the first week in New Zealand. Then I am on vacation. Trading is a little dis-jointed affair at the moment, I am scheduled back to 100% with a full and total uninterrupted return to trading on Tuesday June 13th.
Despite all the activity that one has surrounding a house move, I have kept myself somewhat in touch by reading a huge amount of market commentaries. In fact, last week, I was around to see the poor US data being released, comments from Mark Carney and Mario Draghi taking the heat from Dutch MP’s, hence the title of this blog and for my “SOAPBOX” comment later.
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- THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:
ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:
MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:
Looking at what is on the timetable this week really has me focused on just two currencies, Cable and the Kiwi dollar.
- GBP: Retail Sales numbers are released on Thursday. This is always going to be an interesting number to follow given the BREXIT process.Consumer Prices are out on Tuesday and Average Earnings on Wednesday. The UK data is always a biggie given the BOE position on inflation and interest rates. Given the household budgets squeeze with inflation on the move higher, is the UK at the beginning of a slowdown?
At the moment, I am long GBP/USD and I have let +140 pips positions fall away to +8 pips and then watch cable bounce back up again. The GBP/USD has simply just not motored higher through 1.3000 towards 1.3500 which many commentators were convinced that it would do. What does not go up only has one way to go!
- NZD: This pair looks to me as if it is dangling on the edge of a cliff ready to jump off.This week we see Retail Sales, Dairy Auction prices and Producer Prices data all being released. This could be a make or break week for the Kiwi dollar.
I do not want to sound over dramatic but the NZD move lower wanted by the RBNZ could gather some real momentum and once again head towards 0.6500, which was the target level indicated by previous Prime Minister John Key, I am probably correct in assuming the current Prime Minister Bill English would not object to the same level.
- OIL, TRUMP, BREXIT and THE EUROZONE: Always remember we are continually just seconds away from a TRUMP TWEET, an OPEC member comment on production cuts, a Theresa May comment on a HARD BREXIT or a “jotter blotter” from Brussels making a 30 seconds of fame style media comment that can all rock the markets.Trading Forex is so susceptible to these factors, this is the main reason that I now trade smaller with wider stops to accommodate the unexpected.
USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT & RESISTANCE:
The charts below contain commentary (my thoughts and views), these are the USD major charts that are reflected in the spreadsheet above.
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PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE:
MONTH TO DATE: +100 pips
YEAR TO DATE: +1,382 pips
I am still a little way behind my target. But trading is gathering momentum once again and I am still very confident of achieving my year-end target of 10,000 net profitable pips.
PREMIUM SERVICE – SUBSCRIBER PROMOTION:
“DOUBLE IT UP”
I usually run a PREMIUM SERVICE subscriber promotion at the end of the old year /start of a new year.
Because I knew that this year I would be moving home and traveling in Q2, I deliberately decided to wait, to launch a promotion around that time.
This is the biggest and I believe the best subscriber promotion that I have ever offered.
What is “DOUBLE IT UP” all about…
Basically, from now until June 30th, 2017 anyone who subscribes to the PREMIUM SERVICE through my “SUBSCRIBE HERE” tab at the top of my welcome page will have their subscription period doubled at no extra cost.
In addition, all subscriptions regardless of the date of subscribing will not start until June 30th 2017.
This means that from the day of joining the PREMIUM SERVICE you will have 100% access. This could give you up to an additional 12 weeks of membership to the PREMIUM SERVICE depending upon the date you subscribe.
This 12-week period covers the period that I am moving home and traveling, and therefore there may be days at a time with zero activity, and there will be some because I will be out of coverage and simply on vacation, but it’s all “FREE” in any case, so whatever happens, it is all a bonus anyhow as your subscription period will officially commence June 30th 2017.
Confirmation of the “DOUBLE IT UP” will be contained in the “welcome on board documents” the accompanies your subscription confirmation.
This is the best and most generous promotion that I have ever offered since starting the PREMIUM SERVICE and I hope that many of you take advantage.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE: Joining the PREMIUM SERVICE now on a 10-week subscription gives you a 20-week subscription period with THE DOUBLE IT UP promotion. This basically covers 2017 in total when you allow for the summer break and the delayed promotional start of your subscription period. At CAD$1,000 this is a great opportunity and fantastic value.
I add below my “DRIVE THRU blog / TRADING date charts for 2017, 2018 and 2019.
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- THE SOAPBOX:
IS IT A PULLBACK OPPORTUNITY? - MAYBE, MAYBE NOT
So; the big questions for me are: -
- Following the poor US Retail Sales and Consumer Prices data from last week the question is, was that the top or are we seeing the opportunity to buy the DXY dip?
- The GBP/USD has failed to pass the psychological 1.3000 level. Are we capped or pulling back as BREXIT uncertainty will dominate once again once the June 8th election is out of the way?
- The EUR/USD is popping on news that the EUROZONE economy is showing continual improvements, the two initial geopolitical news events (Dutch and French elections) have now passed without populist victories and we are now in a rumour zone about how the ECB will taper QE and normalize interest rates once again. Can Draghi hold back the bullish market intent?
Having been basically observing prices rather than the intraday movement my views and thoughts are really at the moment viewed from a very high macro level.
Very briefly this is my take on the tree currencies moving forwards:
USD: - The FED seems determined to raise interest rates regardless and one month’s poor data will NOT deter them from the goal of the rate normalization process. Interest rate expectations of a rise in June are still around 90%. Labour data is strong and the economy cannot just straight line, it is a marathon not a sprint. Therefore, expect the DXY to rise on a rate hike.
Buying the USD makes sense to me on this pullback which may continue into the Asian session as the week starts up once again.
We will have greater central bank interest rate divergence of a result of another 0.25% rise in June - do NOT underestimate this point.
GBP: - At the moment, I am long GBP/USD. Will we see a short-term pullback? The pair held at 1.3000 and realistically the bulls were at fever pitch claiming that the bottom was in.
In my opinion an election was called to confirm and extend Theresa May’s position as Prime Minister but fundamentally nothing has changed. We are still heading into unchartered waters with the BREXIT, and the UK economy is starting to slow down as the inflation pinch starts to hit home.
I cannot see Carney wanting to rock the boat and raise rates. I believe he will have his back to the wall until something tangible can change his medium-term views.
My thoughts are that, up to the election cable stands a chance of re-testing 1.3000 again and we may rally beyond 1.3000 if Theresa May pummels the Labour Party at the general election, but I then expect cable to move lower once again as BREXIT uncertainty then becomes the major news event.
Long cable and then short cable after the election are my thoughts. Shorting cable should coincide with the FED raising interest rates.
EUR: - This is the hardest to call. I can see every argument for going long EUR/USD, in fact it is what I am going to do but I do fear the FED rate hike could scupper that move. At the same time, I do believe that the threats to the single currency have somewhat subsided.
Draghi will not want the currency to run too high as this will affect his plans. The FED rate hike could help him, but the EUR/USD is very cheap at the moment all things considered and ultimately, I believe this will override all matters and the EUR/USD around 1.1400 should not be ruled out. Having written that, we need to read and digest all the commentaries from Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen.
This call is the hardest and most difficult of all three currencies. I will say that I would leave the EUR/USD alone and buy the EUR crosses for a long EUR trade.
- CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Take care, have a great trading week and see you next on May 14th, 2017
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #240 FREE NEWSLETTER
DATE: 14th May 2017.