The ECB now out of the way, this coming week we have six of the bigger Central Banks reporting. The highlight will obviously be the FED on the 20th. As always, the FED statement is always eagerly awaited, and this will be no different. The ECB raised albeit a dovish hike, I am expecting a hawkish hold from the FED. Last week, my inbox was jammed from all sorts of originators, banks, institutions, and solo analysts with opinions on not just what the FED should do but also the BOE, RIKSBANK and … [Continue reading]
EYES ON LAGARDE
The month is progressing and we still have USD strength albeit the DXY is slowly grinding higher, not a dramatic fast move more of a line of least resistance move as we await the FED announcement on the 20th of this month. However, first off we have the ECB this coming week on the 14th September and all eyes will be on ECB President Christine Lagarde for what is a “roll of the dice” hike or pause interest rate decision. My thoughts about this ECB decision are contained in this week’s WEEKLY … [Continue reading]
STICKY INFLATION (1970’s RE-RUN?)
I know... before you start leaping up and down saying plenty of institutions have used this headline in the past 7 days, do I not have anything different, anything original to say? Well, to answer this. Yes, the headline is a copy BUT the thoughts to go with it are all my own, with the odd reference to some of the expensive FX brains in the market. Over the past couple of weeks BULLS have become BEARS, NON BELIEVERS have become BELIEVERS and those who like extremes have been encouraged out … [Continue reading]
(DO NOT FORGET) THE BIGGER PICTURE
Now that we have Jackson Hole out of the way, and we’ve heard the Powell address on the state of play of the US economy as seen through the FED eyes as they manage their way back to the 2% inflation target. Whilst there will always be data on the … [Continue reading]
CENTRAL BANKS – END OF RATE HIKE CYCLES?
There has certainly been more volatility than I expected this summer. We are now entering a week that includes FED chair Jerome Powell’s speech from the Jackson Hole Symposium on August 25th at 11:05AM EST. CHINA has really upset the apple cart … [Continue reading]
SUMMER TRADING
Had I not just moved house, I would not be looking at charts reading through financial analysis reviews and reports in detail like I am at the moment. I would instead, just be keeping in touch with the markets from a distance just managing existing … [Continue reading]
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM: 2023 REVIEW H1 and OUTLOOK H2
As promised, over last weekend when running through THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU (ZOOM), I have now posted my H1 / H2 review and outlook for 2023. I hope that you find it both useful and informative. As a bonus, contained within the presentation is a … [Continue reading]
CYCLES, RISKS & RANGES… PART 2
As promised, this week I am going to follow up on most of the charts viewed last week and provide some feedback on what I learned last week on the markets when playing catch up reading through my inbox. In addition, a quick review of the WEEKLY FX … [Continue reading]
CYCLES, RISKS & RANGES
I am back. This house move took a little longer than anticipated to complete to the point where I felt it was safe to look to get back in front of my screens. There are still a great many things to do regarding unpacking and positioning of … [Continue reading]
WEEKLY FX PREMIUM – JUNE 2023 PERFORMANCE
I am in the middle of moving home so for the next three weeks there will be no blogs or zooms while all the things one needs to do on a house move are completed. As you get older, these things seem to be less stressful but the time to complete tasks … [Continue reading]
THE TIPPING POINT
For the first time since I started trading FX, almost 12 years ago, I have ended a week with no additional pips added or no pips lost. I was trying to think of something smart, clever, and positive to say about this BUT, I am struggling. Over the … [Continue reading]
INTEREST RATE POLICY – WHERE ARE WE GOING?
That was a big week for all markets that has just passed, and I think we should be asking the following questions: - Are we any the wiser on Central Bank policies? Did we get the clarity and conviction that we were looking for? Are we … [Continue reading]
THE SAME OLD THEMES PERSIST…
Back to normal this weekend. It has been a little surreal trying to get back into the “rhythm” once again and largely, I have just continued to manage existing trades. As promised, in the “ZOOM” this weekend, I will provide both the May 2023 … [Continue reading]
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