Fuck me.... Does the current batch of Central Bank leaders really have a clue about what is going on in the real world? Because they seem very content to manage firefighting scenarios in the limelight on TV but actually appear to do little on proactive management of their areas of responsibility. Let me elaborate here... Over the past two weeks I have listened to the ECB, FED, SNB, NORGES BANK and finally the BOE. Like a bloody idiot, I waited and waited and waited some more for something … [Continue reading]
“IT’S MORE THAN JUST A BANK CRISIS”
That was some week... Without doubt we are in a “CRISIS” not just a BANK CRISIS but a HIGH-RISK EVENT CRISIS. The simple truth is, we should NOT be surprised. This issue is we need to tackle INFLATION, but it is the speed of rate hikes and the proposed terminal rates that are starting to cause the issues we face. Whether they be economic failings as the cost-of-living bites or systematic risks as we have just witnessed via SILICON VALLEY BANK, SIGNATURE BANK, CREDIT SUISSE and FIRST … [Continue reading]
THE 2% NOOSE
Where to start? My bottom line here is nothing new. Central Banks have crude, blunt tools that simply cannot effect the changes or improvements or reactions to issues that the markets believe that they should react to, or, in some instances fix. Central Bank mandates are basically PRICE STABILITY, the FED also has FULL EMPLOYMENT. Right now, Central Banks are hostage to previous mistakes in monetary policy and frankly they are floundering on what to do in the long-term to rectify this. … [Continue reading]
INFLATION – RECESSION – STAGFLATION – DEPRESSION
Two months completed this year. February was a strange month for me from a reading the markets perspective as a result I was suckered into a few trades that my conviction wasn’t 100% and I had for God only knows what reason FOMO. Nevertheless, I … [Continue reading]
GEOPOLITICS HANGING OVER THE MARKETS
Over the past couple of weeks, niggling issues have been eating away at my macro thoughts and my fundamental views. The main issue that I was contending with was, this belief in the markets that inflation was going fall fast and like magic, the … [Continue reading]
SO FAR 2023, THE YEAR OF THE FLIP-FLOP
I decided for a change this week and write a short blog. Whilst the ZOOM option is less time demanding, my circumstances meant that I had time sitting around waiting away from my office at the end of last week and rather than read, I thought why not … [Continue reading]
RECESSION TALK STILL LINGERS… DESPITE THE RHETORIC
It does feel like the calm before the storm. This coming week we have the eagerly awaited US CPi data. Will it’s release finally end the battle between the markets and the FED. At the moment there are still those believing that the FED will be … [Continue reading]
IT’S ALL AS CLEAR AS MUD
It’s been a long time since I have written the following “Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee Donkey”. I would say that there is plenty of head scratching going on this weekend. The FED, ECB and BOE left me with more questions than answers at the … [Continue reading]
CENTRAL BANKERS LOOKING FOR “ATTABOYS”
We have a big week on the horizon, and to be honest, I have been holding back on adding too many trades as I am seeking some clarification on several matters. FED, ECB and BOE: Where are we on the interest rate cycle? What are current … [Continue reading]
U.S. RECESSION BACK ON THE AGENDA
So far 2023 has not disappointed from a volatility perspective, which always leads into the discussion about the various types of volatility and is the type we are currently experiencing of the correct variant! With reference to specifics regarding … [Continue reading]
HAS THE BOTTOM BEEN POSTED?
US CPI did not disappoint. Whilst the print was in line with expectations the market reaction was its now customary response of wild volatility taking out both longs and shorts from the market. Of the USD majors, possibly the best example being the … [Continue reading]
INFLATION (GET BEHIND THE NUMBERS)
Great to be back from the holiday break and, I am raring to go. I basically observed last week’s action in the FX market. In past years I have been caught out with early year trading during times of low liquidity. I learned my lesson the hard way … [Continue reading]
CAN THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM WORK FOR YOU?
My final presentation of 2022 is titled “CAN THE WEEKLY FX PREMIUM WORK FOR YOU?” Basically, this presentation is aimed at serious FX traders, who are looking to broaden their perspectives, as well as those new to FX. When I first started trading … [Continue reading]
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